Florida Atlantic
Conference USA
2019-20 - 2020-21 - 2021-22
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Overall
Predictive Rating-1.1#178
Expected Predictive Rating-4.6#230
Pace68.1#222
Improvement+5.7#5

Offense
Total Offense+0.0#168
First Shot-2.3#234
After Offensive Rebound+2.3#52
Layup/Dunks+1.8#109
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.3#242
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.6#230
Freethrows-1.2#253
Improvement+4.5#8

Defense
Total Defense-1.1#202
First Shot-2.5#253
After Offensive Rebounds+1.4#73
Layups/Dunks+3.7#59
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.5#334
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.0#214
Freethrows-1.8#284
Improvement+1.2#97
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.1% 1.7% 1.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.2 14.8 15.4
.500 or above 10.0% 25.8% 7.2%
.500 or above in Conference 11.8% 31.4% 8.3%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 4.8% 1.0% 5.5%
First Four0.3% 0.2% 0.3%
First Round1.0% 1.7% 0.9%
Second Round0.1% 0.3% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Marshall (Away) - 15.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 20 - 3
Quad 33 - 83 - 11
Quad 45 - 38 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 25, 2020 199   @ South Alabama L 66-68 49%     0 - 1 -3.0 -3.4 +0.2
  Nov 27, 2020 184   Jacksonville St. L 50-60 53%     0 - 2 -11.8 -20.3 +7.7
  Dec 07, 2020 268   @ North Florida W 79-77 63%     1 - 2 -2.7 +1.7 -4.3
  Dec 15, 2020 246   @ Stetson L 69-78 59%     1 - 3 -12.5 -4.0 -8.9
  Jan 05, 2021 210   @ James Madison L 70-79 52%     1 - 4 -10.6 -4.6 -6.0
  Jan 08, 2021 158   @ Old Dominion L 67-71 38%     1 - 5 0 - 1 -1.9 +5.8 -8.2
  Jan 09, 2021 158   @ Old Dominion L 55-64 38%     1 - 6 0 - 2 -6.9 -11.7 +4.3
  Jan 14, 2021 220   @ Florida International W 81-79 54%     2 - 6 1 - 2 -0.1 +5.8 -5.9
  Jan 16, 2021 220   Florida International W 107-63 68%     3 - 6 2 - 2 +38.2 +16.2 +16.5
  Jan 22, 2021 165   Charlotte W 66-53 OT 55%     4 - 6 3 - 2 +10.7 -9.2 +19.3
  Jan 23, 2021 165   Charlotte L 71-74 55%     4 - 7 3 - 3 -5.3 +6.0 -11.6
  Jan 28, 2021 81   @ Marshall L 70-80 15%    
  Jan 30, 2021 81   @ Marshall L 70-80 16%    
  Feb 05, 2021 84   Western Kentucky L 68-74 33%    
  Feb 06, 2021 84   Western Kentucky L 68-74 34%    
  Feb 12, 2021 200   @ Texas San Antonio L 78-79 46%    
  Feb 19, 2021 147   UTEP L 70-71 54%    
  Feb 20, 2021 147   UTEP L 70-71 53%    
  Feb 26, 2021 223   @ Southern Miss W 66-65 49%    
  Feb 27, 2021 223   @ Southern Miss W 66-65 50%    
Projected Record 7 - 13 6 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference USA Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.1 1st
2nd 0.1 0.1 0.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.8 3rd
4th 0.0 0.8 1.3 0.2 2.3 4th
5th 0.3 2.3 1.0 0.0 3.6 5th
6th 0.2 2.8 3.2 0.3 6.5 6th
7th 0.0 2.2 5.8 1.5 9.5 7th
8th 0.8 7.2 4.7 0.2 12.9 8th
9th 0.2 5.1 8.3 1.3 14.9 9th
10th 0.0 2.8 10.6 3.4 0.1 16.9 10th
11th 0.9 7.1 5.4 0.4 13.9 11th
12th 0.5 4.4 5.9 0.8 0.0 11.6 12th
13th 1.4 3.1 1.2 0.1 5.7 13th
14th 0.5 0.7 0.0 1.2 14th
Total 2.4 9.1 17.3 22.8 21.8 14.9 8.0 3.1 0.6 0.1 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 46.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-7 4.0% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.1% 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.6% 3.2% 3.2% 13.5 0.0 0.0 0.6
10-8 3.1% 3.9% 3.9% 14.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 3.0
9-9 8.0% 1.7% 1.7% 15.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 7.9
8-10 14.9% 2.4% 2.4% 15.1 0.0 0.3 0.1 14.6
7-11 21.8% 1.1% 1.1% 15.9 0.0 0.2 21.6
6-12 22.8% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.1 22.7
5-13 17.3% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.1 17.2
4-14 9.1% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 9.1
3-15 2.4% 2.4
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 1.1% 1.1% 0.0% 15.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.5 0.5 98.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 2.3%