Florida Gulf Coast
Atlantic Sun
2019-20 - 2020-21 - 2021-22
Switch to All-time Team Page
Overall
Predictive Rating-5.6#255
Expected Predictive Rating-3.6#214
Pace71.2#143
Improvement-1.8#268

Offense
Total Offense-4.9#300
First Shot-3.1#258
After Offensive Rebound-1.9#275
Layup/Dunks+0.8#138
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.9#220
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.3#181
Freethrows-2.7#317
Improvement-1.5#268

Defense
Total Defense-0.7#183
First Shot+0.1#173
After Offensive Rebounds-0.8#230
Layups/Dunks+2.8#89
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.6#316
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.9#248
Freethrows+1.8#72
Improvement-0.3#205
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 8.3% 12.7% 6.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.8 16.0
.500 or above 69.8% 85.6% 61.4%
.500 or above in Conference 24.3% 43.0% 14.4%
Conference Champion 0.4% 1.3% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four5.7% 7.6% 4.7%
First Round5.5% 8.9% 3.7%
Second Round0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Lipscomb (Away) - 34.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 21 - 11 - 1
Quad 31 - 22 - 3
Quad 48 - 610 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 25, 2020 277   Florida A&M W 65-56 64%     1 - 0 -0.2 -10.2 +10.1
  Dec 02, 2020 100   @ South Florida L 57-76 13%     1 - 1 -12.3 -8.1 -4.8
  Dec 12, 2020 93   @ Miami (FL) W 66-62 11%     2 - 1 +11.7 +0.4 +11.4
  Dec 16, 2020 209   Florida International L 69-85 49%     2 - 2 -21.3 -13.2 -6.9
  Dec 22, 2020 236   Georgia Southern W 73-60 54%     3 - 2 +6.4 -1.3 +7.8
  Jan 15, 2021 216   Bellarmine L 60-74 51%     3 - 3 0 - 1 -19.8 -16.1 -2.8
  Jan 16, 2021 216   Bellarmine L 60-74 51%     3 - 4 0 - 2 -19.8 -16.1 -2.8
  Jan 22, 2021 224   @ Lipscomb W 79-69 37%     4 - 4 1 - 2 +7.7 +3.8 +4.1
  Jan 23, 2021 224   @ Lipscomb L 69-72 35%    
  Feb 05, 2021 238   Stetson W 70-69 59%    
  Feb 06, 2021 238   Stetson W 70-69 61%    
  Feb 12, 2021 341   @ Kennesaw St. W 69-61 72%    
  Feb 13, 2021 341   @ Kennesaw St. W 69-61 73%    
  Feb 19, 2021 290   Jacksonville W 69-65 68%    
  Feb 20, 2021 290   Jacksonville W 69-65 69%    
  Feb 26, 2021 261   @ North Florida L 72-73 42%    
  Feb 27, 2021 261   @ North Florida L 72-73 41%    
Projected Record 9 - 8 6 - 6





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.2 0.2 0.4 1st
2nd 0.3 2.3 0.9 3.5 2nd
3rd 0.1 3.6 3.3 0.4 7.4 3rd
4th 0.1 2.6 8.4 1.4 0.1 12.6 4th
5th 0.0 1.3 9.1 2.9 13.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.8 8.1 7.5 0.2 16.7 6th
7th 1.2 7.1 9.9 1.1 19.2 7th
8th 0.8 4.5 8.1 8.7 2.5 24.6 8th
9th 0.3 0.8 0.9 0.2 0.0 2.3 9th
10th 10th
Total 0.3 1.6 5.4 9.5 16.7 21.9 20.3 15.5 7.1 1.6 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5
10-6 14.9% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1
9-7 2.8% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
8-8 0.0%
Total 0.4% 0.4 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5
10-6 1.6% 29.3% 29.3% 14.8 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 1.2
9-7 7.1% 26.7% 26.7% 15.7 0.0 0.5 1.3 5.2
8-8 15.5% 12.4% 12.4% 16.0 0.1 1.9 13.6
7-9 20.3% 8.3% 8.3% 16.0 1.7 18.6
6-10 21.9% 5.5% 5.5% 16.0 1.2 20.7
5-11 16.7% 3.6% 3.6% 16.0 0.6 16.1
4-12 9.5% 4.8% 4.8% 16.0 0.5 9.1
3-13 5.4% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 5.4
2-14 1.6% 2.5% 2.5% 16.0 0.0 1.6
1-15 0.3% 0.3
0-16
Total 100% 8.3% 8.3% 0.0% 15.9 0.0 0.2 0.9 7.3 91.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.5% 100.0% 14.8 1.0 30.2 53.1 15.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.4%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.5%
Lose Out 0.2%