Florida International
Conference USA
2019-20 - 2020-21 - 2021-22
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Overall
Predictive Rating-3.5#212
Expected Predictive Rating-5.1#239
Pace77.1#36
Improvement-6.7#348

Offense
Total Offense+0.3#160
First Shot+0.0#178
After Offensive Rebound+0.3#156
Layup/Dunks-0.7#197
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.9#333
3 Pt Jumpshots+6.8#20
Freethrows-2.3#302
Improvement-4.7#346

Defense
Total Defense-3.7#282
First Shot-1.6#222
After Offensive Rebounds-2.2#304
Layups/Dunks-0.9#202
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.0#190
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.1#130
Freethrows-1.8#279
Improvement-2.0#295
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.3% 0.6% 0.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.3 15.1 15.4
.500 or above 8.6% 20.0% 4.6%
.500 or above in Conference 2.4% 6.7% 0.8%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 19.0% 7.3% 23.1%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
First Round0.3% 0.6% 0.2%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Marshall (Home) - 25.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 20 - 30 - 4
Quad 32 - 53 - 9
Quad 46 - 58 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Dec 01, 2020 233   Central Michigan W 96-76 61%     1 - 0 +13.7 +10.2 +1.9
  Dec 04, 2020 205   Jacksonville St. W 74-70 55%     2 - 0 -0.8 -1.7 +0.9
  Dec 12, 2020 261   @ North Florida L 77-80 53%     2 - 1 -7.3 -1.5 -5.9
  Dec 16, 2020 275   @ Florida Gulf Coast W 85-69 57%     3 - 1 +10.7 +5.5 +3.9
  Dec 19, 2020 253   Georgia Southern L 99-103 2OT 65%     3 - 2 -11.6 +2.0 -12.7
  Jan 01, 2021 154   Old Dominion W 82-67 42%     4 - 2 1 - 0 +13.6 +7.8 +5.4
  Jan 02, 2021 154   Old Dominion L 66-71 42%     4 - 3 1 - 1 -6.4 -9.3 +3.2
  Jan 08, 2021 264   @ Middle Tennessee W 68-55 55%     5 - 3 2 - 1 +8.3 +1.2 +7.7
  Jan 09, 2021 264   @ Middle Tennessee L 56-67 55%     5 - 4 2 - 2 -15.7 -15.2 -0.1
  Jan 14, 2021 179   Florida Atlantic L 79-81 49%     5 - 5 2 - 3 -5.2 +4.3 -9.5
  Jan 16, 2021 179   @ Florida Atlantic L 63-107 36%     5 - 6 2 - 4 -43.8 -18.3 -20.0
  Jan 21, 2021 86   Marshall L 80-88 26%    
  Jan 23, 2021 86   Marshall L 80-88 27%    
  Jan 29, 2021 162   @ Charlotte L 66-71 27%    
  Jan 30, 2021 162   @ Charlotte L 66-71 28%    
  Feb 12, 2021 157   @ UTEP L 73-78 27%    
  Feb 13, 2021 157   @ UTEP L 73-78 27%    
  Feb 18, 2021 214   Southern Miss W 73-71 61%    
  Feb 20, 2021 214   Southern Miss W 73-71 61%    
  Feb 26, 2021 87   @ Western Kentucky L 71-83 12%    
  Feb 27, 2021 87   @ Western Kentucky L 71-83 12%    
Projected Record 8 - 13 5 - 11





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Conference USA Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.0 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.0 0.1 3rd
4th 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.4 4th
5th 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.7 5th
6th 0.1 0.8 0.8 0.1 1.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.7 2.0 0.4 0.0 3.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 2.9 1.6 0.1 4.9 8th
9th 0.1 2.5 4.4 0.5 0.0 7.5 9th
10th 0.1 1.8 6.8 2.7 0.1 11.4 10th
11th 0.1 1.9 8.8 6.8 0.5 18.1 11th
12th 0.2 2.2 9.8 10.7 1.6 24.6 12th
13th 1.3 6.4 8.9 3.0 0.1 19.8 13th
14th 2.2 3.5 1.9 0.1 7.7 14th
Total 3.7 12.3 22.6 24.5 18.2 11.3 5.0 1.8 0.5 0.1 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 0.0%
10-8 1.0% 0.0    0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 0.1% 0.0 0.1
10-8 0.5% 4.9% 4.9% 14.6 0.0 0.0 0.5
9-9 1.8% 3.4% 3.4% 14.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.7
8-10 5.0% 1.0% 1.0% 15.4 0.0 0.0 4.9
7-11 11.3% 0.8% 0.8% 15.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 11.2
6-12 18.2% 0.4% 0.4% 15.9 0.0 0.1 18.2
5-13 24.5% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 24.5
4-14 22.6% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 22.6
3-15 12.3% 12.3
2-16 3.7% 3.7
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 15.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 99.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 3.7%