Florida St.
Atlantic Coast
2019-20 - 2020-21 - 2021-22
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Overall
Predictive Rating+15.4#16
Expected Predictive Rating+15.3#28
Pace71.9#122
Improvement+2.2#54

Offense
Total Offense+10.4#7
First Shot+9.3#5
After Offensive Rebound+1.1#109
Layup/Dunks+2.3#93
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#146
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.4#52
Freethrows+2.3#46
Improvement+3.5#19

Defense
Total Defense+5.0#52
First Shot+7.7#8
After Offensive Rebounds-2.7#322
Layups/Dunks+6.4#12
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.9#52
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.4#229
Freethrows+0.8#138
Improvement-1.3#263
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.6% 0.7% 0.1%
#1 Seed 4.2% 5.3% 0.8%
Top 2 Seed 13.0% 16.3% 3.5%
Top 4 Seed 34.4% 40.7% 16.6%
Top 6 Seed 56.2% 63.6% 35.2%
NCAA Tourney Bid 94.0% 96.4% 87.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 92.4% 95.3% 84.8%
Average Seed 5.8 5.3 7.1
.500 or above 99.7% 99.9% 99.1%
.500 or above in Conference 94.1% 97.1% 85.9%
Conference Champion 26.8% 32.0% 12.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four2.2% 1.4% 4.4%
First Round93.0% 95.9% 85.1%
Second Round67.6% 72.5% 54.0%
Sweet Sixteen36.6% 40.2% 26.4%
Elite Eight18.4% 20.5% 12.6%
Final Four8.0% 9.1% 5.2%
Championship Game3.3% 3.8% 2.0%
National Champion1.3% 1.5% 0.6%

Next Game: Clemson (Home) - 73.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 6 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 11 - 1
Quad 1b3 - 24 - 3
Quad 28 - 212 - 5
Quad 34 - 116 - 6
Quad 42 - 018 - 6


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Dec 02, 2020 257   North Florida W 86-58 97%     1 - 0 +20.3 +2.8 +16.6
  Dec 09, 2020 30   Indiana W 69-67 OT 68%     2 - 0 +12.6 +2.5 +10.1
  Dec 12, 2020 33   Florida W 83-71 69%     3 - 0 +22.2 +7.5 +13.6
  Dec 15, 2020 61   Georgia Tech W 74-61 78%     4 - 0 1 - 0 +20.4 +11.3 +10.2
  Dec 19, 2020 94   Central Florida L 74-86 86%     4 - 1 -8.0 +5.2 -13.3
  Dec 21, 2020 218   Gardner-Webb W 72-59 96%     5 - 1 +7.5 -8.2 +15.1
  Dec 29, 2020 37   @ Clemson L 67-77 59%     5 - 2 1 - 1 +3.2 +0.3 +3.4
  Jan 13, 2021 66   North Carolina St. W 105-73 80%     6 - 2 2 - 1 +38.7 +36.3 +3.1
  Jan 16, 2021 32   North Carolina W 82-75 68%     7 - 2 3 - 1 +17.4 +14.9 +2.6
  Jan 18, 2021 35   @ Louisville W 78-65 58%     8 - 2 4 - 1 +26.3 +15.6 +11.5
  Jan 23, 2021 37   Clemson W 72-66 74%    
  Jan 26, 2021 79   Miami (FL) W 79-69 86%    
  Jan 30, 2021 61   @ Georgia Tech W 76-71 62%    
  Feb 02, 2021 108   @ Boston College W 83-74 77%    
  Feb 09, 2021 43   @ Virginia Tech W 73-71 54%    
  Feb 13, 2021 109   Wake Forest W 84-71 90%    
  Feb 15, 2021 6   Virginia L 65-66 52%    
  Feb 20, 2021 43   Virginia Tech W 75-69 75%    
  Feb 24, 2021 79   @ Miami (FL) W 77-70 70%    
  Feb 27, 2021 32   @ North Carolina W 77-75 51%    
  Mar 03, 2021 108   Boston College W 85-72 90%    
  Mar 06, 2021 83   @ Notre Dame W 81-74 69%    
Projected Record 16 - 6 12 - 5





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.5 4.8 9.5 8.9 3.0 26.8 1st
2nd 0.5 5.8 11.7 6.5 1.4 0.0 26.0 2nd
3rd 0.1 2.8 8.4 5.1 0.7 17.0 3rd
4th 1.2 5.5 4.5 0.8 12.1 4th
5th 0.2 3.1 3.8 0.7 0.0 7.8 5th
6th 0.0 0.9 2.8 0.7 0.0 4.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 1.3 1.1 0.0 2.6 7th
8th 0.1 0.6 0.9 0.1 1.7 8th
9th 0.1 0.5 0.2 0.8 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.5 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.1 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 14th
15th 15th
Total 0.1 0.6 1.6 3.6 8.3 13.4 20.0 22.5 16.6 10.3 3.1 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 99.3% 3.0    2.8 0.3
15-5 86.1% 8.9    5.9 2.9 0.2
14-6 57.1% 9.5    3.9 4.4 1.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 21.5% 4.8    0.7 2.1 1.6 0.3 0.1
12-8 2.6% 0.5    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0
11-9 0.1% 0.0    0.0
10-10 0.0%
Total 26.8% 26.8 13.2 9.7 3.2 0.5 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 3.1% 100.0% 41.2% 58.8% 1.6 1.5 1.1 0.3 0.1 100.0%
15-5 10.3% 100.0% 33.8% 66.2% 2.4 1.9 4.4 2.5 1.3 0.2 0.0 100.0%
14-6 16.6% 100.0% 29.5% 70.5% 3.7 0.6 2.7 4.7 4.4 2.6 1.1 0.4 0.1 100.0%
13-7 22.5% 99.8% 23.8% 76.0% 5.3 0.0 0.6 2.7 4.0 4.7 5.3 3.6 1.2 0.3 0.0 0.0 99.8%
12-8 20.0% 97.8% 17.0% 80.9% 6.9 0.4 1.0 2.5 3.5 4.8 4.2 2.4 0.6 0.3 0.4 97.4%
11-9 13.4% 96.6% 11.4% 85.3% 8.3 0.1 0.1 0.4 1.2 2.0 3.5 2.8 2.0 0.7 0.3 0.5 96.2%
10-10 8.3% 82.5% 9.3% 73.2% 9.6 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.9 1.2 1.5 1.3 0.9 0.1 1.4 80.8%
9-11 3.6% 53.7% 4.4% 49.2% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.6 0.7 0.1 1.7 51.5%
8-12 1.6% 16.3% 2.5% 13.8% 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 1.3 14.2%
7-13 0.6% 0.2% 0.2% 11.0 0.0 0.6
6-14 0.1% 0.1
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 94.0% 20.9% 73.1% 5.8 4.2 8.8 10.5 10.9 10.5 11.3 11.5 10.0 6.8 4.5 2.9 1.9 0.2 6.0 92.4%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.3% 100.0% 1.4 66.0 30.8 3.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.6% 100.0% 1.6 48.1 48.6 3.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.7% 100.0% 1.8 39.0 42.7 15.3 3.1