Fresno St.
Mountain West
2019-20 - 2020-21 - 2021-22
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Overall
Predictive Rating-1.7#184
Expected Predictive Rating-4.4#224
Pace63.1#320
Improvement-0.5#208

Offense
Total Offense-1.3#201
First Shot-2.6#245
After Offensive Rebound+1.3#95
Layup/Dunks-1.2#220
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.2#172
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.7#193
Freethrows-0.5#206
Improvement-0.7#212

Defense
Total Defense-0.4#181
First Shot-1.0#200
After Offensive Rebounds+0.6#127
Layups/Dunks+2.6#92
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.3#307
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.5#200
Freethrows-0.7#226
Improvement+0.1#167
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.3% 0.4% 0.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.2 14.9 15.4
.500 or above 2.3% 6.4% 1.2%
.500 or above in Conference 13.0% 28.9% 8.6%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 1.0% 0.2% 1.2%
First Four0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
First Round0.2% 0.3% 0.2%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Nevada (Away) - 21.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b0 - 30 - 5
Quad 21 - 61 - 11
Quad 31 - 32 - 14
Quad 46 - 28 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Dec 28, 2020 69   @ Colorado St. L 53-75 14%     0 - 1 0 - 1 -12.2 -14.4 +1.6
  Dec 30, 2020 69   @ Colorado St. L 59-81 14%     0 - 2 0 - 2 -12.2 -13.5 +2.6
  Jan 02, 2021 171   Wyoming L 74-78 53%     0 - 3 0 - 3 -6.4 -5.1 -1.2
  Jan 04, 2021 171   Wyoming W 81-61 53%     1 - 3 1 - 3 +17.6 +12.0 +7.6
  Jan 08, 2021 321   San Jose St. W 79-64 84%     2 - 3 2 - 3 +2.4 +0.1 +2.8
  Jan 10, 2021 321   San Jose St. W 80-65 84%     3 - 3 3 - 3 +2.4 -1.2 +3.7
  Jan 14, 2021 118   @ Nevada L 66-73 22%    
  Jan 15, 2021 118   @ Nevada L 57-73 25%     3 - 4 3 - 4 -10.8 -9.1 -3.0
  Jan 16, 2021 118   @ Nevada L 66-73 22%    
  Jan 17, 2021 118   @ Nevada L 65-79 25%     3 - 5 3 - 5 -8.8 -6.1 -2.5
  Jan 20, 2021 36   @ Boise St. L 51-73 8%     3 - 6 3 - 6 -8.4 -13.5 +4.2
  Jan 21, 2021 36   @ Boise St. L 60-75 6%    
  Jan 23, 2021 36   @ Boise St. L 60-75 6%    
  Jan 28, 2021 257   New Mexico W 66-60 76%    
  Jan 30, 2021 257   New Mexico W 66-60 75%    
  Feb 04, 2021 52   Utah St. L 59-70 20%    
  Feb 06, 2021 52   Utah St. L 59-70 20%    
  Feb 11, 2021 289   @ Air Force W 66-61 62%    
  Feb 13, 2021 289   @ Air Force W 66-61 63%    
  Feb 18, 2021 33   San Diego St. L 57-69 16%    
  Feb 20, 2021 33   San Diego St. L 57-69 16%    
  Feb 24, 2021 110   @ UNLV L 62-70 20%    
  Feb 26, 2021 110   @ UNLV L 62-70 20%    
Projected Record 7 - 16 7 - 16





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Mountain West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 1.5 1.8 0.7 0.1 4.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 2.0 5.5 4.7 1.4 0.2 0.0 14.0 6th
7th 0.0 1.8 8.4 12.3 7.1 1.4 0.1 0.0 31.1 7th
8th 0.0 2.6 11.6 12.5 5.1 0.9 0.0 32.7 8th
9th 0.0 1.7 6.7 4.6 0.7 0.0 13.8 9th
10th 0.5 1.7 0.6 0.0 2.7 10th
11th 0.1 0.1 0.2 11th
Total 0.6 3.5 9.9 17.9 21.8 19.5 13.7 7.7 3.4 1.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 9.5% 0.0    0.0
14-6 0.0%
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

With games being cancelled frequently this season, the conference records below may not be accurate. The number of wins in the table below are based on games that are currently scheduled and appear in the schedule above.
Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 0.0% 0.0
14-6 0.1% 5.2% 5.2% 13.0 0.0 0.1
13-7 0.4% 4.7% 4.7% 13.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4
12-8 1.4% 1.4% 1.4% 13.2 0.0 0.0 1.3
11-9 3.4% 1.0% 1.0% 14.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.4
10-10 7.7% 0.8% 0.8% 15.3 0.0 0.0 7.6
9-11 13.7% 0.3% 0.3% 15.9 0.0 0.0 13.7
8-12 19.5% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 19.4
7-13 21.8% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 21.8
6-14 17.9% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 17.9
5-15 9.9% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 9.9
4-16 3.5% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 3.5
3-17 0.6% 0.6
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 15.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 99.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.4%