George Mason
Atlantic 10
2019-20 - 2020-21 - 2021-22
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Overall
Predictive Rating+1.1#144
Expected Predictive Rating+1.4#154
Pace66.8#251
Improvement+1.9#75

Offense
Total Offense-1.7#208
First Shot-2.4#237
After Offensive Rebound+0.8#134
Layup/Dunks-0.1#178
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.9#218
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.4#181
Freethrows-1.1#245
Improvement+0.1#160

Defense
Total Defense+2.8#103
First Shot+3.8#67
After Offensive Rebounds-1.0#245
Layups/Dunks+3.4#70
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.1#176
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.1#182
Freethrows+0.3#161
Improvement+1.8#59
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.6% 0.9% 0.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.7 13.4 14.2
.500 or above 30.0% 44.9% 15.8%
.500 or above in Conference 19.3% 31.3% 7.8%
Conference Champion 0.3% 0.7% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.2%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.6% 0.8% 0.4%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Massachusetts (Home) - 48.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 31 - 4
Quad 21 - 52 - 9
Quad 33 - 24 - 11
Quad 46 - 111 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 27, 2020 86   Belmont L 67-77 31%     0 - 1 -3.6 -5.0 +1.4
  Nov 28, 2020 327   Howard W 84-70 89%     1 - 1 +1.7 +2.9 -0.9
  Dec 21, 2020 207   VMI W 68-66 72%     2 - 1 -2.9 -11.0 +8.2
  Dec 23, 2020 226   Towson W 70-65 75%     3 - 1 -0.9 -11.4 +10.2
  Dec 26, 2020 271   Norfolk St. L 65-68 82%     3 - 2 -11.5 -13.1 +1.7
  Dec 30, 2020 111   @ Massachusetts W 93-92 2OT 32%     4 - 2 1 - 0 +7.1 -0.7 +7.5
  Jan 02, 2021 80   @ Dayton L 65-74 23%     4 - 3 1 - 1 -0.2 +3.5 -4.7
  Jan 06, 2021 66   Virginia Commonwealth L 61-66 29%     4 - 4 1 - 2 +2.0 -3.4 +5.2
  Jan 09, 2021 59   Richmond L 57-77 24%     4 - 5 1 - 3 -11.6 -11.6 -0.8
  Jan 13, 2021 166   La Salle W 75-42 63%     5 - 5 2 - 3 +30.7 -4.0 +32.1
  Jan 16, 2021 71   @ Rhode Island L 60-80 21%     5 - 6 2 - 4 -10.5 -2.8 -8.8
  Jan 20, 2021 213   Saint Joseph's W 87-85 2OT 73%     6 - 6 3 - 4 -3.3 -5.7 +2.0
  Jan 23, 2021 213   @ Saint Joseph's W 71-62 62%     7 - 6 4 - 4 +7.0 -2.6 +9.8
  Jan 30, 2021 111   Massachusetts L 70-72 49%    
  Feb 02, 2021 59   @ Richmond L 64-75 13%    
  Feb 06, 2021 60   @ St. Bonaventure L 59-69 14%    
  Feb 10, 2021 266   Fordham W 60-51 84%    
  Feb 13, 2021 126   Duquesne L 64-65 54%    
  Feb 20, 2021 66   @ Virginia Commonwealth L 61-70 17%    
  Feb 24, 2021 64   Davidson L 63-69 33%    
  Feb 27, 2021 201   @ George Washington W 71-69 54%    
  Mar 02, 2021 48   @ Saint Louis L 63-74 12%    
Projected Record 10 - 12 7 - 10





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 0.6 0.0 1.2 2nd
3rd 0.3 1.7 0.3 0.0 2.4 3rd
4th 0.1 2.4 1.9 0.1 4.4 4th
5th 0.0 1.3 5.5 0.6 7.4 5th
6th 0.3 6.8 4.0 0.0 11.2 6th
7th 0.0 3.8 10.6 0.8 0.0 15.2 7th
8th 0.0 1.4 11.0 4.6 0.0 17.0 8th
9th 0.3 6.1 9.5 0.5 16.4 9th
10th 0.0 2.4 8.5 2.7 0.0 13.7 10th
11th 0.5 4.8 3.8 0.2 9.4 11th
12th 0.5 0.7 0.0 1.3 12th
13th 0.1 0.0 0.2 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 14th
Total 1.2 8.3 19.9 27.5 23.8 13.1 4.8 1.2 0.1 0.0 Total



Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 100.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
12-6 67.7% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 18.5% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
10-8 0.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.3% 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

With games being cancelled frequently this season, the conference records below may not be accurate. The number of wins in the table below are based on games that are currently scheduled and appear in the schedule above.
Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 0.0% 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.1% 7.7% 6.2% 1.5% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.6%
11-7 1.2% 3.8% 3.8% 12.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.2
10-8 4.8% 3.1% 3.1% 12.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 4.7
9-9 13.1% 1.0% 1.0% 13.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 13.0
8-10 23.8% 0.7% 0.7% 14.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 23.6
7-11 27.5% 0.3% 0.3% 14.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 27.4
6-12 19.9% 0.2% 0.2% 15.8 0.0 0.0 19.9
5-13 8.3% 0.2% 0.2% 15.9 0.0 0.0 8.3
4-14 1.2% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 1.2
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.6% 0.6% 0.0% 13.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 99.4 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.5%