George Washington
Atlantic 10
2019-20 - 2020-21 - 2021-22
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Overall
Predictive Rating-2.9#199
Expected Predictive Rating-9.9#295
Pace74.2#66
Improvement+2.7#37

Offense
Total Offense+0.5#154
First Shot+1.8#133
After Offensive Rebound-1.3#251
Layup/Dunks+2.7#77
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.7#127
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.6#248
Freethrows+1.0#116
Improvement+2.9#25

Defense
Total Defense-3.3#270
First Shot-1.7#225
After Offensive Rebounds-1.6#277
Layups/Dunks-3.5#272
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.3#208
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.1#162
Freethrows+2.0#61
Improvement-0.2#194
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.1% 0.3% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.5 15.8 15.3
.500 or above 0.3% 1.9% 0.1%
.500 or above in Conference 2.1% 9.0% 1.3%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 14.0% 4.6% 15.1%
First Four0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
First Round0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Dayton (Away) - 11.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 21 - 51 - 7
Quad 32 - 52 - 12
Quad 44 - 57 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 25, 2020 172   @ Navy L 71-78 37%     0 - 1 -6.3 -1.0 -5.4
  Dec 01, 2020 317   Hampton L 78-82 81%     0 - 2 -16.0 -13.6 -1.7
  Dec 05, 2020 326   Coppin St. W 85-69 84%     1 - 2 +2.4 -6.7 +6.1
  Dec 07, 2020 169   @ Maryland Baltimore Co. L 81-92 36%     1 - 3 -10.2 +5.1 -14.7
  Dec 11, 2020 258   @ Delaware L 65-68 56%     1 - 4 -7.3 -7.1 -0.3
  Dec 14, 2020 261   William & Mary L 84-85 OT 67%     1 - 5 -8.5 +5.1 -13.6
  Dec 22, 2020 160   Charlotte L 65-66 45%     1 - 6 -2.6 -1.4 -1.2
  Dec 30, 2020 272   @ Fordham W 71-47 59%     2 - 6 1 - 0 +18.7 +7.2 +13.7
  Jan 02, 2021 129   Duquesne L 63-75 36%     2 - 7 1 - 1 -11.1 +0.2 -12.8
  Jan 03, 2021 129   Duquesne W 75-73 36%     3 - 7 2 - 1 +2.9 +4.6 -1.7
  Jan 13, 2021 67   Virginia Commonwealth L 77-84 19%     3 - 8 2 - 2 -0.4 -2.9 +3.6
  Jan 17, 2021 78   @ Dayton L 67-79 11%    
  Jan 24, 2021 69   @ Rhode Island L 70-82 10%    
  Jan 27, 2021 140   @ George Mason L 68-74 25%    
  Jan 30, 2021 272   Fordham W 67-61 74%    
  Feb 06, 2021 31   Saint Louis L 69-83 13%    
  Feb 09, 2021 53   @ Richmond L 70-85 6%    
  Feb 13, 2021 183   @ La Salle L 72-75 34%    
  Feb 17, 2021 203   Saint Joseph's W 82-80 61%    
  Feb 21, 2021 66   St. Bonaventure L 68-77 24%    
  Feb 27, 2021 140   George Mason L 70-73 45%    
  Mar 02, 2021 76   @ Davidson L 67-79 11%    
Projected Record 6 - 16 5 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 3rd
4th 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.3 4th
5th 0.1 0.5 0.1 0.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.7 0.7 0.0 1.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.6 1.6 0.3 2.5 7th
8th 0.4 2.5 1.8 0.0 4.7 8th
9th 0.1 2.8 4.6 0.6 8.1 9th
10th 0.1 2.5 8.3 2.8 0.1 13.7 10th
11th 0.0 1.9 10.9 7.2 0.5 20.5 11th
12th 0.0 1.8 11.9 10.8 1.7 0.0 26.2 12th
13th 0.6 6.1 7.6 1.6 0.0 15.9 13th
14th 2.0 3.0 0.7 0.0 5.8 14th
Total 2.6 11.0 22.2 25.9 20.3 11.0 4.9 1.7 0.3 0.1 Total



Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 0.1% 13.8% 13.8% 13.0 0.0 0.1
10-8 0.3% 2.4% 2.4% 15.0 0.0 0.3
9-9 1.7% 1.7
8-10 4.9% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 4.8
7-11 11.0% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 10.9
6-12 20.3% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 20.3
5-13 25.9% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 25.9
4-14 22.2% 22.2
3-15 11.0% 11.0
2-16 2.6% 2.6
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 99.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 1.9%