Georgia Southern
Sun Belt
2019-20 - 2020-21 - 2021-22
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Overall
Predictive Rating-4.8#236
Expected Predictive Rating-3.0#204
Pace67.7#230
Improvement+2.2#63

Offense
Total Offense-3.4#258
First Shot-4.9#299
After Offensive Rebound+1.6#88
Layup/Dunks+2.2#93
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.3#288
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.1#316
Freethrows+0.2#170
Improvement+0.5#130

Defense
Total Defense-1.4#213
First Shot+0.7#154
After Offensive Rebounds-2.1#305
Layups/Dunks+1.6#126
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.2#165
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.2#293
Freethrows+2.0#65
Improvement+1.6#66
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.8% 1.7% 0.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.4 15.4 15.5
.500 or above 21.2% 35.6% 13.1%
.500 or above in Conference 39.8% 58.3% 29.5%
Conference Champion 2.1% 4.5% 0.7%
Last Place in Conference 2.0% 0.6% 2.8%
First Four0.3% 0.5% 0.1%
First Round0.8% 1.6% 0.3%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: South Alabama (Away) - 35.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 30 - 4
Quad 33 - 53 - 9
Quad 47 - 410 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Dec 05, 2020 316   @ South Carolina Upstate W 72-69 65%     1 - 0 -5.7 -8.1 +2.4
  Dec 11, 2020 66   @ Davidson L 45-77 9%     1 - 1 -21.8 -18.8 -8.0
  Dec 13, 2020 145   Mercer L 75-77 34%     1 - 2 -2.6 -5.4 +3.0
  Dec 19, 2020 209   @ Florida International W 103-99 2OT 38%     2 - 2 +2.4 +5.5 -4.0
  Dec 22, 2020 255   @ Florida Gulf Coast L 60-73 46%     2 - 3 -16.7 -11.8 -5.0
  Jan 01, 2021 211   South Alabama L 59-88 53%     2 - 4 0 - 1 -34.5 -16.8 -19.4
  Jan 02, 2021 211   South Alabama W 62-49 53%     3 - 4 1 - 1 +7.5 -11.5 +20.2
  Jan 08, 2021 182   @ Appalachian St. L 63-66 32%     3 - 5 1 - 2 -2.9 -6.2 +3.1
  Jan 09, 2021 182   @ Appalachian St. L 71-77 32%     3 - 6 1 - 3 -5.9 +1.6 -7.9
  Jan 15, 2021 282   Troy W 67-64 OT 67%     4 - 6 2 - 3 -6.3 -12.5 +6.0
  Jan 16, 2021 282   Troy W 63-56 67%     5 - 6 3 - 3 -2.3 -4.8 +3.4
  Jan 22, 2021 211   @ South Alabama W 84-75 OT 39%     6 - 6 4 - 3 +7.2 +2.6 +4.1
  Jan 23, 2021 211   @ South Alabama L 68-71 36%    
  Jan 29, 2021 146   Coastal Carolina L 71-75 40%    
  Jan 30, 2021 146   Coastal Carolina L 71-75 40%    
  Feb 05, 2021 282   @ Troy W 67-66 47%    
  Feb 06, 2021 282   @ Troy W 67-66 49%    
  Feb 11, 2021 123   @ Georgia St. L 67-77 15%    
  Feb 13, 2021 123   Georgia St. L 69-75 33%    
  Feb 19, 2021 146   @ Coastal Carolina L 69-77 21%    
  Feb 20, 2021 146   @ Coastal Carolina L 69-77 21%    
  Feb 26, 2021 182   Appalachian St. L 67-68 49%    
  Feb 27, 2021 182   Appalachian St. L 67-68 52%    
Projected Record 10 - 13 8 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 1.0 0.6 0.2 2.1 1st
2nd 0.3 1.4 1.3 0.3 3.4 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.7 2.5 0.4 4.7 3rd
4th 0.0 0.9 3.4 1.5 0.0 5.9 4th
5th 0.4 4.0 4.0 0.4 8.7 5th
6th 0.0 3.4 8.0 1.6 13.1 6th
7th 0.3 2.8 8.9 4.7 0.1 16.7 7th
8th 0.5 3.6 9.8 7.2 1.0 0.0 22.3 8th
9th 0.1 2.7 6.6 4.8 0.6 14.9 9th
10th 0.5 2.9 2.3 0.3 6.0 10th
11th 0.8 0.9 0.2 1.9 11th
12th 0.3 0.1 0.4 12th
Total 1.8 7.1 13.0 17.7 20.6 18.6 11.2 6.1 2.8 0.9 0.2 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 100.0% 0.2    0.2
13-5 68.1% 0.6    0.3 0.3 0.1
12-6 35.2% 1.0    0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1
11-7 4.8% 0.3    0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0
10-8 0.4% 0.0    0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 2.1% 2.1 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 0.2% 100.0% 100.0% 15.0 0.0 0.1 0.0
13-5 0.9% 28.0% 28.0% 15.5 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7
12-6 2.8% 14.0% 14.0% 15.6 0.2 0.2 2.4
11-7 6.1% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 6.1
10-8 11.2% 11.2
9-9 18.6% 18.6
8-10 20.6% 20.6
7-11 17.7% 17.7
6-12 13.0% 13.0
5-13 7.1% 7.1
4-14 1.8% 1.8
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.8% 0.8% 0.0% 15.4 0.1 0.3 0.5 99.2 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 1.8%