Georgia St.
Sun Belt
2019-20 - 2020-21 - 2021-22
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Overall
Predictive Rating+2.1#138
Expected Predictive Rating+4.5#113
Pace74.5#63
Improvement-4.1#336

Offense
Total Offense+1.4#136
First Shot+2.2#116
After Offensive Rebound-0.8#225
Layup/Dunks+2.6#80
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.5#135
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.4#259
Freethrows+1.5#74
Improvement-3.9#339

Defense
Total Defense+0.7#152
First Shot+6.3#22
After Offensive Rebounds-5.6#348
Layups/Dunks+5.8#16
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.1#96
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.7#156
Freethrows-1.3#260
Improvement-0.2#200
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.2% 2.8% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 1.9% 2.5% 0.0%
Average Seed 11.9 11.9 12.7
.500 or above 98.1% 99.3% 94.0%
.500 or above in Conference 70.3% 78.2% 43.5%
Conference Champion 2.3% 3.0% 0.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.5% 0.1% 1.5%
First Four1.5% 1.9% 0.0%
First Round1.1% 1.5% 0.0%
Second Round0.2% 0.3% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: South Alabama (Home) - 77.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b1 - 01 - 0
Quad 21 - 12 - 1
Quad 34 - 46 - 5
Quad 47 - 213 - 7


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 25, 2020 44   @ Georgia Tech W 123-120 4OT 16%     1 - 0 +15.8 +8.4 +6.3
  Nov 30, 2020 149   @ Mercer L 69-86 49%     1 - 1 -14.6 -13.3 +0.7
  Dec 04, 2020 164   @ Charlotte W 76-65 53%     2 - 1 +12.3 +8.4 +4.2
  Dec 16, 2020 149   Mercer W 88-81 61%     3 - 1 +6.1 +8.9 -3.1
  Dec 21, 2020 203   College of Charleston W 72-55 74%     4 - 1 +12.3 +6.0 +8.9
  Jan 01, 2021 150   @ Coastal Carolina L 69-81 49%     4 - 2 0 - 1 -9.6 -12.6 +4.4
  Jan 02, 2021 150   @ Coastal Carolina W 70-62 49%     5 - 2 1 - 1 +10.4 -1.2 +11.8
  Jan 16, 2021 150   Coastal Carolina W 71-68 OT 62%     6 - 2 2 - 1 +2.0 -5.9 +7.8
  Jan 22, 2021 167   @ Appalachian St. L 71-80 54%     6 - 3 2 - 2 -8.1 -1.9 -6.3
  Jan 23, 2021 167   @ Appalachian St. L 61-74 54%     6 - 4 2 - 3 -12.1 -9.4 -3.5
  Jan 29, 2021 199   South Alabama W 77-70 77%    
  Jan 30, 2021 199   South Alabama W 77-70 77%    
  Feb 05, 2021 167   Appalachian St. W 73-69 70%    
  Feb 06, 2021 167   Appalachian St. W 73-69 70%    
  Feb 11, 2021 239   Georgia Southern W 75-66 83%    
  Feb 13, 2021 239   @ Georgia Southern W 74-68 65%    
  Feb 19, 2021 273   Troy W 76-65 87%    
  Feb 20, 2021 273   Troy W 76-65 87%    
  Feb 26, 2021 199   @ South Alabama W 75-72 57%    
  Feb 27, 2021 199   @ South Alabama W 75-72 56%    
Projected Record 13 - 7 9 - 6





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.5 1.9 2.3 1st
2nd 0.4 3.3 3.6 7.2 2nd
3rd 0.1 2.9 7.2 1.9 12.0 3rd
4th 0.0 1.3 7.8 5.2 0.2 14.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 5.7 8.5 1.5 0.0 16.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 3.0 9.3 3.4 0.1 16.0 6th
7th 0.0 1.2 6.5 4.7 0.4 0.0 12.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.5 3.8 4.6 0.6 0.0 9.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.4 2.4 3.2 0.7 0.0 6.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.0 0.3 0.0 2.2 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.6 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 12th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.5 4.0 8.6 15.1 21.6 23.3 17.8 7.5 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 24.7% 1.9    0.2 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0
11-7 2.6% 0.5    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 2.3% 2.3 0.2 0.7 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

With games being cancelled frequently this season, the conference records below may not be accurate. The number of wins in the table below are based on games that are currently scheduled and appear in the schedule above.
Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 7.5% 27.7% 2.9% 24.8% 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.1 0.4 0.0 0.0 5.4 25.5%
11-7 17.8% 0.5% 0.1% 0.4% 12.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 17.7 0.4%
10-8 23.3% 0.0% 0.0% 13.5 0.0 0.0 23.3 0.0%
9-9 21.6% 21.6
8-10 15.1% 15.1
7-11 8.6% 8.6
6-12 4.0% 4.0
5-13 1.5% 1.5
4-14 0.4% 0.4
3-15 0.1% 0.1
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 2.2% 0.2% 1.9% 11.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.2 0.4 0.0 0.0 97.8 1.9%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 7.5% 27.7% 11.8 0.0 0.2 1.4 6.0 15.0 4.9 0.1 0.0