Georgia Tech
Atlantic Coast
2019-20 - 2020-21 - 2021-22
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Overall
Predictive Rating+10.5#51
Expected Predictive Rating+9.7#65
Pace67.5#237
Improvement+5.1#9

Offense
Total Offense+6.5#40
First Shot+7.6#18
After Offensive Rebound-1.1#235
Layup/Dunks+2.0#106
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.5#91
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.4#70
Freethrows+0.7#130
Improvement+2.9#29

Defense
Total Defense+4.0#71
First Shot+0.5#163
After Offensive Rebounds+3.5#8
Layups/Dunks-1.0#213
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.2#37
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.1#251
Freethrows+1.4#89
Improvement+2.2#36
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.3% 1.1% 0.1%
Top 4 Seed 2.1% 4.8% 1.5%
Top 6 Seed 6.0% 14.9% 4.2%
NCAA Tourney Bid 36.9% 58.9% 32.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 34.0% 55.9% 29.7%
Average Seed 9.1 8.2 9.4
.500 or above 85.2% 96.1% 82.9%
.500 or above in Conference 40.3% 64.9% 35.2%
Conference Champion 2.5% 9.3% 1.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.8% 0.4% 0.9%
First Four7.4% 5.9% 7.7%
First Round33.4% 55.9% 28.8%
Second Round17.4% 30.8% 14.6%
Sweet Sixteen5.5% 8.9% 4.8%
Elite Eight2.0% 3.2% 1.7%
Final Four0.7% 1.6% 0.6%
Championship Game0.1% 0.4% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.2% 0.0%

Next Game: Virginia (Away) - 17.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 31 - 3
Quad 1b1 - 22 - 5
Quad 25 - 37 - 8
Quad 35 - 211 - 10
Quad 43 - 014 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 25, 2020 104   Georgia St. L 120-123 4OT 77%     0 - 1 -0.2 +2.5 -1.6
  Nov 27, 2020 143   Mercer L 73-83 85%     0 - 2 -10.5 -5.0 -5.1
  Dec 06, 2020 61   Kentucky W 79-62 53%     1 - 2 +26.7 +15.5 +11.7
  Dec 09, 2020 124   @ Nebraska W 75-64 70%     2 - 2 +16.0 +6.1 +10.2
  Dec 15, 2020 15   @ Florida St. L 61-74 26%     2 - 3 0 - 1 +4.3 -0.4 +3.6
  Dec 18, 2020 283   Florida A&M W 74-64 96%     3 - 3 +0.8 +5.4 -3.6
  Dec 20, 2020 344   Delaware St. W 97-69 99%     4 - 3 +8.0 +4.3 +1.3
  Dec 30, 2020 34   North Carolina W 72-67 51%     5 - 3 1 - 1 +15.2 +5.1 +10.1
  Jan 03, 2021 103   Wake Forest W 70-54 77%     6 - 3 2 - 1 +18.9 -2.4 +21.3
  Jan 20, 2021 54   Clemson W 83-65 58%     7 - 3 3 - 1 +26.5 +26.1 +2.5
  Jan 23, 2021 8   @ Virginia L 58-67 17%    
  Jan 26, 2021 52   @ Duke L 73-75 39%    
  Jan 30, 2021 15   Florida St. L 73-76 43%    
  Feb 06, 2021 81   Notre Dame W 77-71 75%    
  Feb 10, 2021 8   Virginia L 60-65 36%    
  Feb 13, 2021 54   @ Clemson L 66-68 41%    
  Feb 16, 2021 106   Boston College W 78-70 80%    
  Feb 20, 2021 93   @ Miami (FL) W 71-68 57%    
  Feb 23, 2021 43   @ Virginia Tech L 67-69 36%    
  Feb 27, 2021 47   Syracuse W 74-73 60%    
  Mar 02, 2021 52   Duke W 75-73 62%    
  Mar 05, 2021 103   @ Wake Forest W 75-71 60%    
Projected Record 13 - 9 9 - 7





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.5 1.2 0.7 0.2 2.5 1st
2nd 0.7 2.5 1.7 0.3 5.2 2nd
3rd 0.2 2.6 3.1 0.6 6.5 3rd
4th 0.1 1.9 5.1 1.1 0.0 8.2 4th
5th 1.2 6.3 2.9 0.1 10.4 5th
6th 0.3 4.3 5.5 0.4 10.4 6th
7th 0.0 1.8 8.1 2.5 0.0 12.4 7th
8th 0.4 6.1 5.2 0.4 12.1 8th
9th 0.0 2.7 5.6 1.3 0.0 9.7 9th
10th 1.1 4.9 3.2 0.0 9.3 10th
11th 0.2 2.2 3.2 0.4 6.0 11th
12th 0.8 2.8 0.7 4.4 12th
13th 0.1 1.2 0.7 0.0 2.0 13th
14th 0.0 0.5 0.3 0.0 0.8 14th
15th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 15th
Total 0.1 0.7 2.6 6.9 11.9 17.4 20.1 16.7 11.6 7.3 3.6 0.9 0.2 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 100.0% 0.2    0.1 0.0
14-6 71.4% 0.7    0.3 0.3 0.1
13-7 33.7% 1.2    0.1 0.4 0.7 0.0
12-8 6.8% 0.5    0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 2.5% 2.5 0.5 0.8 1.0 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 0.2% 100.0% 1.3% 98.7% 3.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-6 0.9% 100.0% 24.9% 75.1% 4.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 100.0%
13-7 3.6% 100.0% 15.4% 84.6% 6.1 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 100.0%
12-8 7.3% 97.3% 13.1% 84.2% 7.4 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.7 0.9 1.5 1.7 1.1 0.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 96.9%
11-9 11.6% 78.3% 6.7% 71.6% 9.3 0.1 0.0 0.4 0.9 1.3 1.7 2.1 1.7 0.7 0.2 2.5 76.8%
10-10 16.7% 55.5% 5.5% 50.0% 10.2 0.0 0.2 0.2 1.0 1.5 1.6 2.5 2.1 0.1 7.5 52.9%
9-11 20.1% 26.9% 2.3% 24.6% 11.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.1 1.9 0.8 0.0 14.7 25.2%
8-12 17.4% 6.0% 1.6% 4.5% 11.8 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.0 16.4 4.6%
7-13 11.9% 2.9% 1.6% 1.3% 11.9 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 11.6 1.3%
6-14 6.9% 6.9
5-15 2.6% 2.6
4-16 0.7% 0.7
3-17 0.1% 0.1
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 36.9% 4.4% 32.6% 9.1 0.0 0.2 0.4 1.4 1.6 2.3 3.5 4.4 5.2 5.4 5.6 5.3 1.4 0.1 63.1 34.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.0% 100.0% 3.0 100.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1% 100.0% 3.3 33.0 33.0 0.9 33.0
Lose Out 0.1%