Grambling St.
Southwestern Athletic
2019-20 - 2020-21 - 2021-22
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Overall
Predictive Rating-10.0#313
Expected Predictive Rating-11.3#307
Pace70.5#164
Improvement-2.1#288

Offense
Total Offense-7.5#327
First Shot-7.3#330
After Offensive Rebound-0.2#184
Layup/Dunks+2.7#80
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.5#190
3 Pt Jumpshots-8.9#341
Freethrows-0.6#213
Improvement-1.2#260

Defense
Total Defense-2.5#241
First Shot-1.0#196
After Offensive Rebounds-1.5#262
Layups/Dunks+5.0#29
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.2#37
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.1#324
Freethrows-3.1#318
Improvement-0.9#246
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 7.2% 10.7% 6.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 25.1% 50.8% 18.6%
.500 or above in Conference 12.4% 33.9% 6.9%
Conference Champion 0.2% 0.8% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four6.9% 9.7% 6.2%
First Round2.8% 5.1% 2.2%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Texas Southern (Away) - 20.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 2
Quad 20 - 10 - 3
Quad 30 - 30 - 5
Quad 48 - 68 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 25, 2020 142   @ Grand Canyon L 53-69 11%     0 - 1 -12.8 -19.7 +6.9
  Nov 27, 2020 29   @ Arizona L 55-74 2%     0 - 2 -4.8 -16.6 +13.0
  Dec 06, 2020 16   @ Texas Tech L 40-81 1%     0 - 3 -23.9 -23.7 +0.5
  Dec 16, 2020 298   @ Louisiana Monroe W 78-61 37%     1 - 3 +10.4 +4.9 +5.9
  Dec 19, 2020 184   @ Tulane L 65-77 18%     1 - 4 -12.2 +1.6 -15.1
  Dec 23, 2020 321   SE Louisiana L 70-77 62%     1 - 5 -20.1 -6.1 -14.3
  Jan 02, 2021 346   @ Alabama St. W 66-49 77%     2 - 5 1 - 0 -0.7 -14.6 +13.4
  Jan 09, 2021 263   Southern L 55-61 43%     2 - 6 1 - 1 -14.1 -21.0 +7.1
  Jan 12, 2021 343   Alcorn St. W 79-74 79%     3 - 6 2 - 1 -13.3 -10.4 -3.3
  Jan 16, 2021 232   @ Texas Southern L 68-75 20%    
  Jan 18, 2021 265   @ Prairie View L 66-71 26%    
  Jan 30, 2021 342   Arkansas Pine Bluff W 74-67 77%    
  Feb 06, 2021 263   @ Southern L 65-70 27%    
  Feb 08, 2021 343   @ Alcorn St. W 75-70 64%    
  Feb 13, 2021 232   Texas Southern L 70-74 41%    
  Feb 27, 2021 342   @ Arkansas Pine Bluff W 72-69 56%    
  Mar 04, 2021 346   Alabama St. W 69-58 86%    
  Mar 06, 2021 333   Alabama A&M W 72-67 71%    
Projected Record 8 - 10 7 - 5





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Southwestern Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.1 0.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 0.9 0.2 1.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.1 3.2 1.4 0.1 5.8 3rd
4th 0.4 4.6 9.9 5.1 0.5 20.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 4.9 12.2 6.3 0.6 24.2 5th
6th 0.1 3.0 10.3 6.6 0.7 20.7 6th
7th 0.0 1.4 6.9 5.9 0.8 0.0 15.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.6 3.6 4.2 0.8 0.0 9.1 8th
9th 0.1 1.1 1.3 0.4 0.0 2.9 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 10th
Total 0.1 1.7 6.4 14.8 22.3 24.2 18.1 9.2 2.9 0.4 Total



Southwestern Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 27.0% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
10-8 3.7% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.2% 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 0.4% 25.7% 25.7% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3
10-8 2.9% 21.2% 21.2% 15.9 0.0 0.6 2.3
9-9 9.2% 13.4% 13.4% 16.0 0.0 1.2 7.9
8-10 18.1% 10.6% 10.6% 16.0 1.9 16.2
7-11 24.2% 7.7% 7.7% 16.0 1.9 22.4
6-12 22.3% 4.8% 4.8% 16.0 1.1 21.2
5-13 14.8% 2.5% 2.5% 16.0 0.4 14.4
4-14 6.4% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.1 6.3
3-15 1.7% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 1.7
2-16 0.1% 0.1
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 7.2% 7.2% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 0.1 7.2 92.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1%
Lose Out 0.1%