Grand Canyon
Western Athletic
2019-20 - 2020-21 - 2021-22
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Overall
Predictive Rating+1.4#142
Expected Predictive Rating+2.0#138
Pace64.0#307
Improvement-0.4#211

Offense
Total Offense+2.5#100
First Shot+1.1#151
After Offensive Rebound+1.4#98
Layup/Dunks+6.6#16
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.2#97
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.8#309
Freethrows-1.9#288
Improvement+0.2#148

Defense
Total Defense-1.1#202
First Shot-3.6#291
After Offensive Rebounds+2.5#31
Layups/Dunks+2.6#97
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.9#241
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.1#320
Freethrows-0.2#193
Improvement-0.5#224
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 32.7% 34.1% 24.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.4 14.3 14.9
.500 or above 97.4% 98.4% 91.4%
.500 or above in Conference 94.0% 96.0% 82.0%
Conference Champion 63.1% 66.5% 42.7%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four2.0% 1.8% 3.2%
First Round32.0% 33.4% 23.4%
Second Round2.7% 2.9% 1.5%
Sweet Sixteen0.6% 0.7% 0.4%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Dixie St. (Away) - 85.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 10 - 2
Quad 33 - 33 - 5
Quad 413 - 216 - 7


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 25, 2020 313   Grambling St. W 69-53 88%     1 - 0 +4.4 -6.8 +11.2
  Dec 01, 2020 348   Mississippi Valley W 88-49 99%     2 - 0 +10.1 -1.4 +10.7
  Dec 11, 2020 107   Nevada W 87-77 45%     3 - 0 +12.6 +17.3 -4.4
  Dec 13, 2020 74   Arizona St. L 70-71 32%     3 - 1 +5.1 -1.2 +6.3
  Dec 20, 2020 84   San Francisco L 65-68 31%     3 - 2 +3.6 -1.1 +4.6
  Dec 22, 2020 14   Colorado L 64-74 11%     3 - 3 +5.1 +6.7 -2.8
  Jan 08, 2021 325   @ Tarleton St. W 75-72 86%     4 - 3 1 - 0 -7.2 +0.4 -7.5
  Jan 09, 2021 325   @ Tarleton St. W 59-48 86%     5 - 3 2 - 0 +0.8 -8.4 +11.1
  Jan 22, 2021 330   @ Dixie St. W 73-60 86%    
  Jan 23, 2021 330   @ Dixie St. W 73-60 85%    
  Jan 29, 2021 117   New Mexico St. L 65-66 53%    
  Jan 30, 2021 117   New Mexico St. L 65-66 53%    
  Feb 05, 2021 227   @ UT Rio Grande Valley W 72-68 61%    
  Feb 06, 2021 227   @ UT Rio Grande Valley W 72-68 60%    
  Feb 12, 2021 260   Cal St. Northridge W 77-68 83%    
  Feb 19, 2021 282   California Baptist W 78-68 85%    
  Feb 20, 2021 282   California Baptist W 78-68 86%    
  Feb 26, 2021 256   @ Seattle W 73-67 65%    
  Feb 27, 2021 256   @ Seattle W 73-67 65%    
  Mar 05, 2021 245   Utah Valley W 74-66 81%    
  Mar 06, 2021 245   Utah Valley W 74-66 80%    
Projected Record 14 - 7 11 - 3





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Western Athletic Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.1 2.2 8.8 18.0 18.1 12.0 4.0 63.1 1st
2nd 0.2 2.2 8.0 8.4 3.1 0.1 22.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.3 4.3 3.0 0.5 9.2 3rd
4th 0.1 0.6 1.8 1.0 0.1 3.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 0.8 0.5 0.0 1.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.0 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.6 3.7 7.6 13.4 17.7 21.2 18.1 12.0 4.0 Total



Western Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2 100.0% 4.0    4.0
13-3 100.0% 12.0    12.0 0.1
12-4 99.5% 18.1    16.7 1.3
11-5 85.1% 18.0    12.2 5.7 0.2
10-6 49.6% 8.8    3.8 4.0 1.0 0.0
9-7 16.3% 2.2    0.3 1.0 0.7 0.1 0.0
8-8 1.0% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Total 63.1% 63.1 48.9 12.0 1.9 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2 4.0% 57.1% 57.1% 12.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.8 0.8 0.3 0.0 1.7
13-3 12.0% 52.5% 52.5% 13.6 0.3 2.3 3.1 0.6 0.0 5.7
12-4 18.1% 42.3% 42.3% 14.2 0.1 1.2 3.7 2.5 0.1 10.5
11-5 21.2% 35.3% 35.3% 14.7 0.0 0.3 2.5 3.6 1.0 13.7
10-6 17.7% 27.6% 27.6% 15.1 0.1 0.7 2.6 1.5 12.8
9-7 13.4% 19.8% 19.8% 15.6 0.1 1.0 1.6 10.7
8-8 7.6% 12.3% 12.3% 15.8 0.0 0.2 0.8 6.7
7-9 3.7% 8.5% 8.5% 16.0 0.0 0.3 3.4
6-10 1.6% 7.5% 7.5% 16.0 0.1 1.4
5-11 0.7% 14.2% 14.2% 16.0 0.1 0.6
4-12 0.1% 16.5% 16.5% 16.0 0.0 0.1
3-13 0.0% 0.0
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 32.7% 32.7% 0.0% 14.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 1.2 4.7 10.4 10.4 5.6 67.3 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 2.0% 100.0% 12.2 0.3 0.5 1.6 4.9 11.7 38.2 33.8 8.5 0.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 1.0%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.4%