Green Bay
Horizon
2019-20 - 2020-21 - 2021-22
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Overall
Predictive Rating-4.8#233
Expected Predictive Rating-6.8#268
Pace68.8#210
Improvement+5.0#11

Offense
Total Offense+0.5#154
First Shot+0.1#175
After Offensive Rebound+0.4#150
Layup/Dunks-2.8#274
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.8#75
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#136
Freethrows+0.2#172
Improvement+2.5#43

Defense
Total Defense-5.3#310
First Shot-4.3#301
After Offensive Rebounds-1.1#251
Layups/Dunks-6.6#338
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.0#180
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.0#104
Freethrows+0.3#161
Improvement+2.4#37
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3.0% 4.1% 2.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 3.5% 8.5% 1.3%
.500 or above in Conference 15.5% 32.5% 8.2%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 5.6% 1.4% 7.4%
First Four2.8% 3.5% 2.5%
First Round1.8% 2.5% 1.6%
Second Round0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Cleveland St. (Away) - 30.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 4
Quad 20 - 10 - 5
Quad 31 - 41 - 9
Quad 49 - 710 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 25, 2020 31   @ Minnesota L 69-99 5%     0 - 1 -15.8 -11.2 +1.9
  Dec 01, 2020 14   @ Wisconsin L 42-82 3%     0 - 2 -22.4 -18.6 -6.6
  Dec 05, 2020 248   Eastern Illinois L 91-93 2OT 60%     0 - 3 -9.3 -0.3 -8.7
  Dec 08, 2020 64   @ Marquette L 68-82 8%     0 - 4 -3.1 +2.8 -6.7
  Dec 19, 2020 218   Wisconsin-Milwaukee L 65-68 54%     0 - 5 0 - 1 -8.8 -9.5 +0.7
  Dec 20, 2020 218   Wisconsin-Milwaukee L 62-74 54%     0 - 6 0 - 2 -17.8 -8.9 -9.7
  Dec 26, 2020 65   @ Wright St. L 53-67 8%     0 - 7 0 - 3 -3.6 -14.3 +10.8
  Dec 27, 2020 65   @ Wright St. L 77-90 8%     0 - 8 0 - 4 -2.6 +3.2 -4.7
  Jan 01, 2021 250   @ Youngstown St. L 77-84 46%     0 - 9 0 - 5 -10.7 -1.0 -9.8
  Jan 02, 2021 250   @ Youngstown St. W 79-69 46%     1 - 9 1 - 5 +6.3 +6.2 +1.0
  Jan 08, 2021 247   Oakland W 84-81 OT 60%     2 - 9 2 - 5 -4.3 +1.6 -6.0
  Jan 09, 2021 247   Oakland W 87-78 60%     3 - 9 3 - 5 +1.7 +3.9 -2.6
  Jan 15, 2021 204   @ Detroit Mercy L 61-86 36%     3 - 10 3 - 6 -26.3 -13.2 -14.0
  Jan 16, 2021 204   @ Detroit Mercy L 65-68 36%     3 - 11 3 - 7 -4.3 -1.1 -3.7
  Jan 22, 2021 231   Purdue Fort Wayne W 77-59 57%     4 - 11 +11.5 -4.0 +14.7
  Jan 23, 2021 231   Purdue Fort Wayne W 87-72 57%     5 - 11 +8.5 +12.1 -3.2
  Jan 29, 2021 189   @ Cleveland St. L 67-72 30%    
  Jan 30, 2021 189   @ Cleveland St. L 67-72 29%    
  Feb 05, 2021 307   IUPUI W 79-73 76%    
  Feb 06, 2021 307   IUPUI W 79-73 75%    
  Feb 12, 2021 213   Northern Kentucky W 71-70 58%    
  Feb 13, 2021 213   Northern Kentucky W 71-70 57%    
  Feb 19, 2021 225   @ Illinois-Chicago L 70-72 37%    
  Feb 20, 2021 225   @ Illinois-Chicago L 70-72 37%    
Projected Record 9 - 15 7 - 11





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Horizon Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 1.5 0.5 2.6 2nd
3rd 0.5 5.0 6.6 2.2 0.0 14.3 3rd
4th 0.4 8.7 13.8 3.9 0.2 27.1 4th
5th 3.9 11.6 2.5 0.0 18.0 5th
6th 0.4 9.3 4.7 0.1 14.5 6th
7th 0.0 4.4 7.3 0.5 12.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.8 4.9 0.6 6.3 8th
9th 0.1 2.0 1.3 3.4 9th
10th 0.6 1.0 0.1 1.7 10th
Total 0.7 3.8 11.1 21.4 26.0 21.4 11.1 3.9 0.6 Total



Horizon Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 0.6% 5.4% 5.4% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.5
10-8 3.9% 5.8% 5.8% 15.7 0.1 0.2 3.7
9-9 11.1% 5.3% 5.3% 16.0 0.6 10.5
8-10 21.4% 4.3% 4.3% 16.0 0.9 20.5
7-11 26.0% 2.8% 2.8% 16.0 0.7 25.3
6-12 21.4% 2.3% 2.3% 16.0 0.5 20.9
5-13 11.1% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.1 11.1
4-14 3.8% 3.8
3-15 0.7% 0.7
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 3.0% 3.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.1 3.0 97.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.2%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2%
Lose Out 0.7%