Holy Cross
Patriot League
2019-20 - 2020-21 - 2021-22
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Overall
Predictive Rating-11.1#321
Expected Predictive Rating-6.2#254
Pace71.4#135
Improvement+0.6#139

Offense
Total Offense-4.3#283
First Shot-2.5#243
After Offensive Rebound-1.8#272
Layup/Dunks+2.5#81
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.7#328
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.0#77
Freethrows-4.4#342
Improvement+0.1#166

Defense
Total Defense-6.8#327
First Shot-3.7#291
After Offensive Rebounds-3.2#334
Layups/Dunks-7.1#341
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.4#223
3 Pt Jumpshots+6.4#11
Freethrows-2.6#310
Improvement+0.5#140
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.4% 0.5% 0.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.9 16.0
.500 or above 6.8% 11.4% 1.2%
.500 or above in Conference 12.1% 19.7% 2.9%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 14.2% 5.0% 25.3%
First Four0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
First Round0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Lehigh (Home) - 54.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 4
Quad 21 - 11 - 4
Quad 31 - 32 - 7
Quad 44 - 46 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Jan 04, 2021 301   Boston University L 76-83 48%     0 - 1 0 - 1 -17.7 -10.1 -7.1
  Jan 05, 2021 301   @ Boston University W 68-66 35%     1 - 1 1 - 1 -5.1 -5.0 +0.0
  Jan 09, 2021 192   Army L 68-83 26%     1 - 2 1 - 2 -19.3 -9.1 -9.4
  Jan 10, 2021 192   @ Army W 70-61 16%     2 - 2 2 - 2 +8.4 -0.1 +8.7
  Jan 16, 2021 84   @ Colgate L 55-95 4%     2 - 3 2 - 3 -31.5 -15.0 -17.7
  Jan 17, 2021 84   @ Colgate L 87-96 4%     2 - 4 2 - 4 -0.5 +3.3 -2.6
  Jan 23, 2021 311   Lehigh W 74-73 55%    
  Jan 24, 2021 311   Lehigh W 74-73 57%    
  Jan 30, 2021 301   Boston University L 71-72 53%    
  Jan 31, 2021 301   @ Boston University L 70-74 32%    
  Feb 06, 2021 192   @ Army L 67-78 14%    
  Feb 07, 2021 192   Army L 69-76 30%    
  Feb 13, 2021 84   Colgate L 70-86 8%    
  Feb 14, 2021 84   Colgate L 70-86 9%    
  Feb 20, 2021 301   @ Boston University L 70-74 30%    
  Feb 21, 2021 301   Boston University L 71-72 52%    
Projected Record 5 - 11 5 - 11





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Patriot League Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.1 0.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.7 3rd
4th 0.1 1.8 3.4 2.4 0.6 0.0 8.4 4th
5th 0.6 5.4 8.5 3.5 0.7 0.0 18.7 5th
6th 0.4 8.2 9.6 4.5 0.6 23.2 6th
7th 4.7 10.1 3.0 0.4 0.0 18.2 7th
8th 1.5 9.4 2.7 0.1 13.7 8th
9th 1.2 7.0 3.2 0.2 11.6 9th
10th 2.4 2.8 0.3 5.5 10th
Total 3.6 11.3 17.9 21.8 18.2 15.1 7.6 3.3 0.9 0.2 Total



Patriot League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5 0.0%
10-6 0.0%
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5 0.2% 0.2
10-6 0.9% 12.0% 12.0% 15.7 0.0 0.1 0.8
9-7 3.3% 2.1% 2.1% 16.0 0.1 3.3
8-8 7.6% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 7.6
7-9 15.1% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 15.1
6-10 18.2% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 18.1
5-11 21.8% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.1 21.7
4-12 17.9% 17.9
3-13 11.3% 11.3
2-14 3.6% 3.6
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 15.9 0.0 0.3 99.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 2.7%