Idaho St.
Big Sky
2019-20 - 2020-21 - 2021-22
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Overall
Predictive Rating-5.9#259
Expected Predictive Rating-3.7#216
Pace63.1#321
Improvement+4.4#16

Offense
Total Offense-2.4#229
First Shot-7.0#326
After Offensive Rebound+4.6#8
Layup/Dunks-3.0#285
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.7#329
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.2#162
Freethrows-0.5#206
Improvement+5.3#2

Defense
Total Defense-3.5#276
First Shot-4.3#300
After Offensive Rebounds+0.8#118
Layups/Dunks-3.0#266
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#152
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.0#213
Freethrows-0.7#225
Improvement-0.9#251
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3.0% 5.2% 1.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.9 16.0
.500 or above 36.1% 53.2% 22.4%
.500 or above in Conference 57.0% 73.8% 43.6%
Conference Champion 6.9% 11.0% 3.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four1.8% 3.1% 0.8%
First Round2.0% 3.7% 0.7%
Second Round0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Portland St. (Away) - 44.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 20 - 20 - 2
Quad 32 - 42 - 6
Quad 48 - 610 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 25, 2020 163   @ Santa Clara L 49-62 24%     0 - 1 -11.6 -15.5 +2.9
  Nov 27, 2020 191   Nicholls St. L 51-70 37%     0 - 2 -21.4 -26.0 +5.6
  Nov 28, 2020 248   UC Davis L 61-70 48%     0 - 3 -14.3 -14.7 +0.2
  Dec 08, 2020 70   @ Utah L 59-75 8%     0 - 4 -6.2 -4.8 -2.6
  Dec 22, 2020 193   @ Northern Colorado L 64-69 31%     0 - 5 0 - 1 -5.7 -5.6 -0.3
  Dec 23, 2020 193   @ Northern Colorado W 71-56 31%     1 - 5 1 - 1 +14.3 -1.9 +16.1
  Jan 07, 2021 297   @ Northern Arizona W 73-69 53%     2 - 5 2 - 1 -2.8 +2.1 -4.4
  Jan 09, 2021 297   @ Northern Arizona W 76-70 53%     3 - 5 3 - 1 -0.8 +12.6 -12.1
  Jan 17, 2021 228   Sacramento St. W 57-56 OT 51%     4 - 5 4 - 1 -5.2 -14.1 +9.0
  Jan 18, 2021 228   Sacramento St. L 65-70 51%     4 - 6 4 - 2 -11.2 -0.3 -11.7
  Jan 21, 2021 285   @ Portland St. W 64-57 50%     5 - 6 5 - 2 +1.2 +0.3 +2.2
  Jan 23, 2021 285   @ Portland St. L 69-70 45%    
  Jan 28, 2021 195   Southern Utah L 72-73 49%    
  Jan 30, 2021 195   Southern Utah L 72-73 50%    
  Feb 11, 2021 338   Idaho W 73-63 85%    
  Feb 13, 2021 338   Idaho W 73-63 84%    
  Feb 18, 2021 180   @ Montana St. L 63-69 25%    
  Feb 20, 2021 180   Montana St. L 64-67 44%    
  Feb 25, 2021 159   Montana L 62-66 38%    
  Feb 27, 2021 159   Montana L 62-66 37%    
  Mar 03, 2021 139   @ Eastern Washington L 68-78 16%    
  Mar 05, 2021 139   @ Eastern Washington L 68-78 17%    
Projected Record 10 - 12 10 - 8





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Big Sky Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.7 3.1 1.7 0.2 0.1 6.9 1st
2nd 0.0 1.9 4.6 2.2 0.4 9.1 2nd
3rd 1.3 6.4 3.6 0.2 11.4 3rd
4th 0.3 6.2 7.4 0.6 14.6 4th
5th 0.1 3.9 8.9 1.8 0.0 14.8 5th
6th 0.1 1.9 9.1 4.0 0.1 15.2 6th
7th 0.0 1.7 8.1 6.4 0.5 16.7 7th
8th 0.6 3.1 3.7 0.6 0.0 8.0 8th
9th 0.2 1.0 1.4 0.5 3.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.3 10th
11th 11th
Total 0.2 1.8 6.4 14.4 20.2 20.9 17.7 10.5 5.5 2.1 0.2 0.1 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 100.0% 0.1    0.1
15-5 100.0% 0.2    0.1 0.1
14-6 82.3% 1.7    1.1 0.6 0.0
13-7 56.7% 3.1    1.1 1.3 0.7 0.0
12-8 15.9% 1.7    0.1 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.1
11-9 0.7% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.1
10-10 0.0%
Total 6.9% 6.9 2.5 2.5 1.3 0.4 0.2



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 0.1% 0.1
15-5 0.2% 83.3% 83.3% 15.4 0.1 0.1 0.0
14-6 2.1% 55.9% 55.9% 15.9 0.1 1.1 0.9
13-7 5.5% 24.8% 24.8% 16.0 1.4 4.1
12-8 10.5% 2.2% 2.2% 16.0 0.2 10.3
11-9 17.7% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 17.7
10-10 20.9% 20.9
9-11 20.2% 20.2
8-12 14.4% 14.4
7-13 6.4% 6.4
6-14 1.8% 1.8
5-15 0.2% 0.2
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 3.0% 3.0% 0.0% 15.9 0.1 0.2 2.8 97.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.2%