Illinois St.
Missouri Valley
2019-20 - 2020-21 - 2021-22
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Overall
Predictive Rating-3.1#208
Expected Predictive Rating-3.2#208
Pace72.4#114
Improvement+3.0#39

Offense
Total Offense-1.8#213
First Shot+0.2#169
After Offensive Rebound-1.9#276
Layup/Dunks-2.9#280
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.2#38
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.8#62
Freethrows-3.9#339
Improvement+0.4#128

Defense
Total Defense-1.4#214
First Shot-1.4#210
After Offensive Rebounds+0.0#178
Layups/Dunks-2.0#239
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.9#250
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#164
Freethrows+1.2#109
Improvement+2.6#24
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.2% 0.3% 0.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.6 15.4 15.9
.500 or above 2.4% 3.4% 0.6%
.500 or above in Conference 6.9% 10.1% 1.5%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 24.4% 12.1% 45.7%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.2%
First Round0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Valparaiso (Home) - 63.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 40 - 4
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 5
Quad 20 - 10 - 6
Quad 33 - 73 - 13
Quad 45 - 38 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 25, 2020 20   @ Ohio St. L 67-94 5%     0 - 1 -10.7 -6.0 -2.8
  Nov 28, 2020 242   Umass Lowell W 82-72 58%     1 - 1 +4.9 +1.2 +3.1
  Dec 05, 2020 165   @ Murray St. L 65-76 33%     1 - 2 -9.7 -8.6 -0.8
  Dec 12, 2020 147   @ Ball St. L 66-82 27%     1 - 3 -12.9 -10.8 -0.6
  Dec 15, 2020 347   Chicago St. W 91-62 95%     2 - 3 +6.6 +9.7 -3.9
  Dec 27, 2020 29   @ Loyola Chicago L 60-90 6%     2 - 4 0 - 1 -15.5 -4.2 -11.5
  Dec 28, 2020 29   @ Loyola Chicago L 55-86 6%     2 - 5 0 - 2 -16.5 -5.5 -13.4
  Jan 09, 2021 241   @ Evansville L 48-57 50%     2 - 6 0 - 3 -12.2 -18.2 +4.3
  Jan 10, 2021 241   @ Evansville W 73-68 50%     3 - 6 1 - 3 +1.8 +7.5 -5.1
  Jan 16, 2021 124   Indiana St. L 65-73 35%     3 - 7 1 - 4 -7.0 -8.8 +2.1
  Jan 17, 2021 124   Indiana St. L 68-74 35%     3 - 8 1 - 5 -5.0 -2.7 -2.4
  Jan 20, 2021 115   Bradley W 71-56 31%     4 - 8 2 - 5 +16.9 +0.5 +16.6
  Jan 23, 2021 220   Valparaiso W 73-70 63%    
  Jan 24, 2021 220   Valparaiso W 73-70 64%    
  Jan 31, 2021 47   @ Drake L 65-81 6%    
  Feb 01, 2021 47   @ Drake L 65-81 6%    
  Feb 06, 2021 92   Missouri St. L 71-78 29%    
  Feb 07, 2021 92   Missouri St. L 71-78 30%    
  Feb 13, 2021 173   @ Southern Illinois L 69-73 32%    
  Feb 14, 2021 173   @ Southern Illinois L 69-73 32%    
  Feb 17, 2021 115   Bradley L 67-72 36%    
  Feb 26, 2021 148   Northern Iowa L 74-77 45%    
  Feb 27, 2021 148   Northern Iowa L 74-77 45%    
Projected Record 8 - 15 6 - 12





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 0.7 0.1 1.3 4th
5th 0.1 1.1 2.1 0.5 0.1 3.9 5th
6th 0.2 1.5 4.2 1.9 0.2 0.0 8.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 2.5 7.2 4.4 0.4 0.0 14.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.6 4.5 11.3 6.9 1.0 0.0 24.4 8th
9th 0.0 1.8 8.4 13.7 8.1 1.4 0.0 33.4 9th
10th 1.3 4.5 5.4 2.4 0.3 14.0 10th
Total 1.4 6.3 14.3 20.9 22.3 17.1 10.7 5.0 1.6 0.4 0.0 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.0% 0.0
11-7 0.4% 2.4% 2.4% 14.0 0.0 0.4
10-8 1.6% 0.6% 0.6% 15.9 0.0 0.0 1.6
9-9 5.0% 1.7% 1.7% 15.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 4.9
8-10 10.7% 0.6% 0.6% 15.9 0.0 0.1 10.6
7-11 17.1% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 17.1
6-12 22.3% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 22.3
5-13 20.9% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 20.9
4-14 14.3% 14.3
3-15 6.3% 6.3
2-16 1.4% 1.4
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 15.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 99.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 1.0%