Incarnate Word
Southland
2019-20 - 2020-21 - 2021-22
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Overall
Predictive Rating-12.0#327
Expected Predictive Rating-10.3#300
Pace65.1#285
Improvement+1.1#96

Offense
Total Offense-5.0#301
First Shot-2.3#239
After Offensive Rebound-2.7#300
Layup/Dunks-7.2#340
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.2#99
3 Pt Jumpshots+6.2#28
Freethrows-2.4#302
Improvement+2.1#49

Defense
Total Defense-7.0#332
First Shot-3.6#292
After Offensive Rebounds-3.3#333
Layups/Dunks-2.1#244
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.0#288
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.1#135
Freethrows-0.7#218
Improvement-1.0#257
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.3% 0.7% 0.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 15.9 16.0
.500 or above 7.2% 17.9% 4.7%
.500 or above in Conference 36.1% 62.8% 29.9%
Conference Champion 0.2% 0.9% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 7.9% 1.6% 9.4%
First Four0.2% 0.6% 0.1%
First Round0.1% 0.3% 0.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Stephen F. Austin (Home) - 18.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 10 - 2
Quad 30 - 30 - 5
Quad 47 - 97 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 27, 2020 197   Rice L 53-68 23%     0 - 1 -19.4 -26.1 +7.4
  Dec 02, 2020 194   @ Wyoming L 83-94 OT 15%     0 - 2 -11.8 -2.6 -7.9
  Dec 05, 2020 178   @ Texas St. L 64-72 13%     0 - 3 -7.8 -3.6 -4.7
  Dec 29, 2020 12   @ Texas Tech L 51-79 1%     0 - 4 -10.8 -9.6 -2.8
  Jan 06, 2021 319   @ Northwestern St. W 75-67 39%     1 - 4 1 - 0 -1.2 -2.4 +1.2
  Jan 09, 2021 306   @ New Orleans L 64-86 35%     1 - 5 1 - 1 -29.9 -12.5 -17.7
  Jan 13, 2021 342   McNeese St. W 83-61 65%     2 - 5 2 - 1 +6.1 +6.6 +1.3
  Jan 16, 2021 159   Stephen F. Austin L 66-77 19%    
  Jan 20, 2021 305   @ Lamar L 67-71 30%    
  Jan 23, 2021 316   TX A&M Corpus Christi L 65-66 54%    
  Jan 27, 2021 337   Houston Baptist W 78-75 66%    
  Jan 30, 2021 127   Abilene Christian L 59-72 14%    
  Feb 06, 2021 316   @ TX A&M Corpus Christi L 64-67 34%    
  Feb 10, 2021 319   Northwestern St. W 73-72 57%    
  Feb 13, 2021 306   New Orleans L 71-72 52%    
  Feb 17, 2021 342   @ McNeese St. W 72-71 48%    
  Feb 20, 2021 159   @ Stephen F. Austin L 65-79 9%    
  Feb 24, 2021 305   Lamar L 68-69 51%    
  Mar 03, 2021 337   @ Houston Baptist L 76-77 44%    
  Mar 06, 2021 127   @ Abilene Christian L 57-73 5%    
Projected Record 7 - 13 7 - 9





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Southland Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.8 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.7 1.0 0.3 0.0 2.1 3rd
4th 0.2 1.7 2.7 1.2 0.1 5.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.6 4.1 6.1 2.8 0.3 0.0 13.9 5th
6th 0.2 4.0 6.6 2.6 0.2 13.6 6th
7th 0.0 1.7 7.7 3.3 0.4 13.2 7th
8th 0.5 6.8 5.4 0.6 0.0 13.4 8th
9th 0.1 2.7 6.8 1.1 0.0 10.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.9 5.8 2.4 0.1 9.2 10th
11th 0.3 3.4 4.0 0.3 8.0 11th
12th 0.1 1.9 3.3 0.7 0.0 6.0 12th
13th 0.7 1.6 0.7 0.0 3.0 13th
Total 0.7 3.8 8.4 13.7 18.3 18.9 14.8 10.9 6.4 2.8 0.9 0.3 0.0 Total



Southland Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2 85.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
13-3 42.8% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-4 3.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-5 0.7% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-6 0.0%
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 0.2% 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2 0.0% 17.0% 17.0% 15.0 0.0 0.0
13-3 0.3% 6.7% 6.7% 16.0 0.0 0.3
12-4 0.9% 6.4% 6.4% 16.0 0.1 0.9
11-5 2.8% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 2.7
10-6 6.4% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 6.4
9-7 10.9% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.1 10.8
8-8 14.8% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 14.8
7-9 18.9% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 18.9
6-10 18.3% 18.3
5-11 13.7% 13.7
4-12 8.4% 8.4
3-13 3.8% 3.8
2-14 0.7% 0.7
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 0.2 99.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.7%