Indiana St.
Missouri Valley
2019-20 - 2020-21 - 2021-22
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Overall
Predictive Rating+2.8#129
Expected Predictive Rating+4.1#117
Pace69.6#187
Improvement+1.0#111

Offense
Total Offense+0.5#148
First Shot+2.6#107
After Offensive Rebound-2.1#281
Layup/Dunks+0.8#143
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#151
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.9#236
Freethrows+3.4#16
Improvement+0.5#133

Defense
Total Defense+2.3#116
First Shot+4.3#56
After Offensive Rebounds-2.0#300
Layups/Dunks-2.0#237
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.1#42
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.0#22
Freethrows-0.8#227
Improvement+0.5#139
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3.4% 3.6% 3.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Average Seed 13.0 12.8 13.3
.500 or above 45.5% 57.6% 28.9%
.500 or above in Conference 73.3% 84.0% 58.7%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.7% 0.1% 1.5%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.2%
First Round3.4% 3.6% 3.0%
Second Round0.7% 0.7% 0.6%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.1% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Bradley (Home) - 57.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 40 - 4
Quad 1b0 - 21 - 6
Quad 21 - 32 - 9
Quad 34 - 35 - 12
Quad 47 - 113 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Dec 12, 2020 27   @ Purdue L 68-80 13%     0 - 1 +2.9 +1.6 +1.5
  Dec 15, 2020 32   @ Saint Louis L 59-78 15%     0 - 2 -4.9 -2.7 -3.7
  Dec 19, 2020 145   Ball St. W 67-57 63%     1 - 2 +9.5 -12.3 +20.8
  Dec 22, 2020 303   Southeast Missouri St. W 72-66 89%     2 - 2 -4.8 -7.5 +2.5
  Dec 27, 2020 46   Drake L 63-81 27%     2 - 3 0 - 1 -8.8 -5.3 -4.0
  Dec 28, 2020 46   Drake L 66-73 27%     2 - 4 0 - 2 +2.2 +0.2 +1.5
  Jan 02, 2021 92   @ Missouri St. L 74-84 32%     2 - 5 0 - 3 -2.4 -2.7 +1.1
  Jan 03, 2021 92   @ Missouri St. L 66-70 32%     2 - 6 0 - 4 +3.6 -4.9 +8.5
  Jan 10, 2021 28   Loyola Chicago W 76-71 22%     3 - 6 1 - 4 +15.9 +8.7 +7.1
  Jan 11, 2021 28   Loyola Chicago L 48-58 22%     3 - 7 1 - 5 +0.9 -6.6 +5.0
  Jan 16, 2021 207   @ Illinois St. W 73-65 65%     4 - 7 2 - 5 +6.8 -3.0 +9.5
  Jan 17, 2021 207   @ Illinois St. W 74-68 65%     5 - 7 3 - 5 +4.8 +1.5 +3.3
  Jan 30, 2021 118   Bradley W 68-67 58%    
  Jan 31, 2021 118   Bradley W 68-67 57%    
  Feb 26, 2021 224   @ Valparaiso W 71-66 64%    
  Feb 27, 2021 224   @ Valparaiso W 71-66 64%    
  Mar 08, 2021 146   @ Northern Iowa L 72-73 45%    
  Mar 08, 2021 46   Drake L 68-74 32%    
  Mar 08, 2021 170   Southern Illinois W 71-66 73%    
  Mar 08, 2021 238   Evansville W 69-59 83%    
  Mar 09, 2021 146   Northern Iowa W 74-71 64%    
  Mar 09, 2021 46   @ Drake L 66-76 14%    
  Mar 09, 2021 170   @ Southern Illinois W 70-68 52%    
  Mar 09, 2021 238   @ Evansville W 67-61 68%    
Projected Record 12 - 12 10 - 10





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 1.0 0.9 0.1 2.4 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.4 5.3 7.8 4.5 0.8 0.0 20.0 3rd
4th 0.1 1.9 8.5 8.6 3.2 0.3 22.5 4th
5th 0.0 1.6 7.2 7.9 2.4 0.4 19.6 5th
6th 0.1 1.4 6.1 7.0 1.9 0.1 16.6 6th
7th 0.6 3.9 5.2 1.3 0.0 11.0 7th
8th 0.1 0.5 2.1 2.2 1.0 0.0 5.9 8th
9th 0.2 0.7 0.5 0.2 1.6 9th
10th 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.3 10th
Total 0.4 1.3 3.3 7.7 14.0 17.6 19.7 16.4 11.8 5.8 1.8 0.2 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 25.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
14-4 4.3% 0.1    0.1
13-5 0.0% 0.0    0.0
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 0.2% 48.8% 25.0% 23.8% 8.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 31.7%
14-4 1.8% 13.1% 13.0% 0.1% 11.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 1.5 0.1%
13-5 5.8% 11.3% 10.6% 0.7% 11.9 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 5.2 0.8%
12-6 11.8% 5.2% 5.2% 0.0% 12.7 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 11.2 0.0%
11-7 16.4% 4.9% 4.9% 13.0 0.2 0.5 0.2 15.6
10-8 19.7% 2.6% 2.6% 14.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 19.2
9-9 17.6% 2.0% 2.0% 15.0 0.0 0.3 17.2
8-10 14.0% 0.6% 0.6% 15.5 0.0 0.0 13.9
7-11 7.7% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 7.7
6-12 3.3% 3.3
5-13 1.3% 1.3
4-14 0.4% 0.4
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 3.4% 3.3% 0.1% 13.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.9 1.0 0.5 0.6 0.1 96.6 0.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 5.1 95.1 2.4 2.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.0% 90.7% 12.0 2.3 88.4