Jackson St.
Southwestern Athletic
2019-20 - 2020-21 - 2021-22
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Overall
Predictive Rating-9.7#312
Expected Predictive Rating-8.8#289
Pace70.2#168
Improvement+0.7#128

Offense
Total Offense-8.9#332
First Shot-9.5#342
After Offensive Rebound+0.6#141
Layup/Dunks-3.8#299
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.3#37
3 Pt Jumpshots-9.5#343
Freethrows+0.5#150
Improvement-0.6#218

Defense
Total Defense-0.8#189
First Shot+0.5#161
After Offensive Rebounds-1.3#264
Layups/Dunks+4.3#46
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.0#104
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.4#269
Freethrows-2.3#300
Improvement+1.3#86
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 8.1% 9.0% 3.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 26.1% 30.1% 5.2%
.500 or above in Conference 2.7% 3.2% 0.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.2% 0.1% 0.7%
First Four7.5% 8.2% 3.9%
First Round4.0% 4.6% 1.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Arkansas Pine Bluff (Home) - 83.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 20 - 3
Quad 30 - 20 - 5
Quad 46 - 46 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Dec 08, 2020 79   @ Mississippi St. L 59-82 5%     0 - 1 -14.1 -11.4 -2.2
  Dec 10, 2020 62   @ Mississippi L 45-80 4%     0 - 2 -24.0 -21.3 -2.3
  Dec 15, 2020 115   @ Louisiana Tech L 58-85 8%     0 - 3 -21.4 -15.0 -4.4
  Dec 17, 2020 114   @ Bradley L 60-83 8%     0 - 4 -17.4 -13.4 -2.4
  Dec 20, 2020 111   @ Iowa St. L 45-60 8%     0 - 5 -9.0 -23.4 +13.6
  Jan 04, 2021 346   @ Alabama St. W 60-44 78%     1 - 5 1 - 0 -1.9 -11.1 +11.3
  Feb 01, 2021 343   Arkansas Pine Bluff W 72-63 84%    
  Feb 06, 2021 336   @ Alcorn St. W 71-69 53%    
  Feb 08, 2021 258   @ Southern L 63-69 26%    
  Feb 13, 2021 267   Prairie View L 65-67 49%    
  Feb 15, 2021 252   Texas Southern L 69-71 46%    
  Mar 01, 2021 343   @ Arkansas Pine Bluff W 70-65 65%    
  Mar 04, 2021 333   Alabama A&M W 70-64 71%    
  Mar 06, 2021 346   Alabama St. W 69-57 86%    
Projected Record 6 - 8 6 - 3





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Southwestern Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.2 0.4 0.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.7 1.7 3.5 3rd
4th 0.1 3.6 5.7 0.6 9.8 4th
5th 0.2 4.3 10.4 2.6 0.0 17.5 5th
6th 0.1 3.5 11.8 6.1 0.2 21.7 6th
7th 0.1 2.6 9.6 8.1 0.6 21.0 7th
8th 0.1 2.2 8.1 6.4 0.9 17.6 8th
9th 0.1 1.2 3.3 3.1 0.4 0.0 8.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 10th
Total 0.1 1.3 5.5 13.9 20.1 25.3 20.7 10.4 2.7 Total



Southwestern Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9 2.7% 24.8% 24.8% 15.6 0.0 0.2 0.4 2.0
8-10 10.4% 17.6% 17.6% 16.0 1.8 8.6
7-11 20.7% 12.7% 12.7% 16.0 2.6 18.0
6-12 25.3% 7.7% 7.7% 16.0 2.0 23.3
5-13 20.1% 4.2% 4.2% 16.0 0.9 19.3
4-14 13.9% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.2 13.7
3-15 5.5% 5.5
2-16 1.3% 1.3
1-17 0.1% 0.1
0-18
Total 100% 8.1% 8.1% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 0.2 7.9 91.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.7% 100.0% 15.6 6.0 27.6 66.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.5%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.7%