Jacksonville St.
Ohio Valley
2019-20 - 2020-21 - 2021-22
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Overall
Predictive Rating-3.0#205
Expected Predictive Rating-1.1#182
Pace67.0#254
Improvement-0.9#225

Offense
Total Offense-2.3#230
First Shot-4.1#276
After Offensive Rebound+1.8#77
Layup/Dunks-1.6#235
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#141
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.4#184
Freethrows-2.5#307
Improvement+2.1#50

Defense
Total Defense-0.7#186
First Shot-1.3#204
After Offensive Rebounds+0.5#145
Layups/Dunks-3.4#275
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.1#198
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.2#180
Freethrows+2.4#46
Improvement-3.0#325
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 4.2% 6.4% 3.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.0 14.8 15.2
.500 or above 69.9% 87.0% 63.3%
.500 or above in Conference 67.0% 85.0% 60.1%
Conference Champion 0.2% 0.4% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four0.6% 0.7% 0.6%
First Round3.9% 6.1% 3.0%
Second Round0.1% 0.3% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Murray St. (Away) - 27.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 10 - 2
Quad 32 - 52 - 7
Quad 411 - 413 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 25, 2020 13   @ Alabama L 57-81 4%     0 - 1 -6.4 -12.7 +8.4
  Nov 27, 2020 179   Florida Atlantic W 60-50 44%     1 - 1 +8.5 -9.3 +18.7
  Nov 29, 2020 204   @ South Alabama W 77-73 43%     2 - 1 +2.7 +5.1 -2.1
  Dec 04, 2020 212   @ Florida International L 70-74 45%     2 - 2 -5.7 -6.9 +1.2
  Dec 13, 2020 309   @ Tennessee Tech W 73-67 68%     3 - 2 1 - 0 -1.9 +0.8 -2.4
  Dec 16, 2020 309   Tennessee Tech W 74-50 79%     4 - 2 2 - 0 +12.6 -5.1 +17.2
  Dec 30, 2020 338   Tennessee Martin W 80-70 88%     5 - 2 3 - 0 -5.8 -3.3 -2.4
  Jan 07, 2021 163   @ Eastern Kentucky L 66-69 OT 32%     5 - 3 3 - 1 -1.2 -11.2 +10.3
  Jan 09, 2021 195   @ Morehead St. L 55-56 42%     5 - 4 3 - 2 -1.9 -8.2 +6.2
  Jan 14, 2021 290   Tennessee St. W 65-64 74%     6 - 4 4 - 2 -8.6 -6.7 -1.8
  Jan 16, 2021 98   Belmont L 91-98 27%     6 - 5 4 - 3 -3.6 +13.0 -16.3
  Jan 21, 2021 156   @ Murray St. L 65-70 28%    
  Jan 23, 2021 185   @ Austin Peay L 68-71 36%    
  Jan 28, 2021 195   Morehead St. W 64-63 59%    
  Jan 30, 2021 163   Eastern Kentucky L 72-73 50%    
  Feb 04, 2021 338   @ Tennessee Martin W 76-67 77%    
  Feb 06, 2021 308   @ Southeast Missouri St. W 70-65 62%    
  Feb 11, 2021 236   Eastern Illinois W 72-69 66%    
  Feb 13, 2021 305   SIU Edwardsville W 72-64 80%    
  Feb 18, 2021 98   @ Belmont L 69-79 15%    
  Feb 20, 2021 290   @ Tennessee St. W 67-64 57%    
  Feb 25, 2021 156   Murray St. L 67-68 49%    
  Feb 27, 2021 185   Austin Peay W 70-69 57%    
Projected Record 12 - 11 10 - 9





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Ohio Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 2.1 1.9 1.0 0.1 5.7 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.0 4.4 4.3 1.4 0.1 11.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 1.6 6.5 7.6 2.4 0.2 0.0 18.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 1.9 7.8 8.5 2.4 0.1 20.8 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 3.5 9.2 9.1 2.7 0.2 24.9 6th
7th 0.1 2.0 5.4 3.8 0.8 0.0 12.1 7th
8th 0.1 0.7 2.0 1.5 0.2 0.0 4.4 8th
9th 0.2 0.8 0.5 0.1 1.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.4 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 12th
Total 0.1 0.5 1.9 4.7 10.5 15.4 19.3 18.7 15.1 8.9 3.6 1.2 0.1 Total



Ohio Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 20.8% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
15-5 6.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
14-6 1.9% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.2% 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 0.1% 29.2% 29.2% 12.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
15-5 1.2% 22.7% 22.7% 13.9 0.1 0.2 0.0 1.0
14-6 3.6% 16.8% 16.8% 14.4 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.0 3.0
13-7 8.9% 9.3% 9.3% 14.9 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.1 8.1
12-8 15.1% 6.5% 6.5% 15.1 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.3 14.1
11-9 18.7% 4.1% 4.1% 15.5 0.0 0.3 0.4 17.9
10-10 19.3% 2.2% 2.2% 15.7 0.1 0.3 18.9
9-11 15.4% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.2 15.2
8-12 10.5% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.1 10.4
7-13 4.7% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 4.7
6-14 1.9% 1.9
5-15 0.5% 0.5
4-16 0.1% 0.1
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 4.2% 4.2% 0.0% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.8 1.4 95.8 0.0%