James Madison
Colonial Athletic
2019-20 - 2020-21 - 2021-22
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Overall
Predictive Rating-3.2#206
Expected Predictive Rating-4.5#226
Pace77.8#34
Improvement+2.1#67

Offense
Total Offense+0.4#154
First Shot+0.2#173
After Offensive Rebound+0.2#169
Layup/Dunks+0.9#136
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.4#295
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.8#200
Freethrows+2.6#37
Improvement+1.0#100

Defense
Total Defense-3.5#277
First Shot-1.8#227
After Offensive Rebounds-1.8#290
Layups/Dunks-1.7#233
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.8#64
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.6#154
Freethrows-2.4#303
Improvement+1.2#101
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 7.3% 12.2% 5.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.9 14.5 15.2
.500 or above 36.5% 60.4% 29.1%
.500 or above in Conference 12.6% 31.0% 6.9%
Conference Champion 0.5% 1.9% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 17.6% 6.3% 21.0%
First Four1.0% 0.7% 1.0%
First Round6.7% 11.8% 5.1%
Second Round0.3% 0.8% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Northeastern (Away) - 23.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 10 - 2
Quad 32 - 42 - 6
Quad 46 - 59 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 27, 2020 250   Norfolk St. L 73-83 66%     0 - 1 -17.3 -3.1 -14.2
  Nov 29, 2020 222   Radford W 67-59 60%     1 - 1 +2.1 -6.3 +8.6
  Dec 19, 2020 141   @ East Carolina L 64-73 27%     1 - 2 -5.7 -5.6 +0.0
  Dec 22, 2020 73   @ Virginia Commonwealth L 81-82 13%     1 - 3 +8.3 +3.3 +5.1
  Jan 03, 2021 260   Morgan St. L 73-80 67%     1 - 4 -14.8 -10.1 -4.2
  Jan 05, 2021 168   Florida Atlantic W 79-70 47%     2 - 4 +6.5 +5.4 +1.2
  Jan 16, 2021 214   @ Towson W 81-72 45%     3 - 4 1 - 0 +7.0 +6.5 +0.5
  Jan 23, 2021 142   @ Northeastern L 70-76 24%    
  Jan 24, 2021 142   @ Northeastern L 70-76 23%    
  Jan 27, 2021 214   Towson W 78-75 64%    
  Feb 06, 2021 263   @ William & Mary W 76-75 51%    
  Feb 07, 2021 263   @ William & Mary W 76-75 49%    
  Feb 13, 2021 175   Hofstra L 77-78 53%    
  Feb 14, 2021 175   Hofstra L 77-78 53%    
  Feb 20, 2021 226   @ Delaware L 74-75 42%    
  Feb 21, 2021 226   @ Delaware L 74-75 42%    
  Feb 27, 2021 173   Drexel L 74-75 52%    
  Feb 28, 2021 173   Drexel L 74-75 53%    
Projected Record 8 - 10 6 - 6





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.5 1st
2nd 0.4 2.0 2.6 0.9 0.1 6.1 2nd
3rd 0.5 4.8 3.9 1.1 0.2 10.6 3rd
4th 0.3 4.4 5.4 1.1 0.0 11.2 4th
5th 0.1 2.7 7.2 2.5 0.1 12.5 5th
6th 0.1 1.1 7.1 3.3 0.0 11.6 6th
7th 0.5 4.8 6.0 0.4 0.0 11.7 7th
8th 0.4 3.4 7.3 1.3 12.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.9 3.1 6.0 3.5 0.1 13.7 9th
10th 0.5 2.6 4.0 2.4 0.3 9.7 10th
Total 0.6 3.5 7.5 12.4 17.1 17.4 15.8 13.2 7.1 3.9 1.5 0.2 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 34.4% 0.1    0.1
11-7 21.8% 0.3    0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
10-8 4.0% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.5% 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.2% 34.4% 34.4% 12.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
11-7 1.5% 29.7% 29.7% 13.3 0.0 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.0
10-8 3.9% 19.5% 19.5% 14.0 0.2 0.4 0.2 3.1
9-9 7.1% 18.1% 18.1% 14.5 0.1 0.6 0.5 0.1 5.8
8-10 13.2% 13.2% 13.2% 15.0 0.0 0.2 1.2 0.3 11.5
7-11 15.8% 10.0% 10.0% 15.4 0.1 0.8 0.7 14.2
6-12 17.4% 4.4% 4.4% 15.6 0.3 0.5 16.7
5-13 17.1% 3.0% 3.0% 16.0 0.5 16.6
4-14 12.4% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.1 12.3
3-15 7.5% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 7.5
2-16 3.5% 3.5
1-17 0.6% 0.6
0-18
Total 100% 7.3% 7.3% 0.0% 14.9 0.0 0.0 0.6 1.4 3.0 2.3 92.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.4%