Long Beach St.
Big West
2019-20 - 2020-21 - 2021-22
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Overall
Predictive Rating-6.4#271
Expected Predictive Rating-2.3#194
Pace80.5#11
Improvement+2.7#47

Offense
Total Offense-1.2#198
First Shot+1.6#138
After Offensive Rebound-2.7#306
Layup/Dunks-1.0#212
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.2#180
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.5#115
Freethrows+1.3#98
Improvement+1.3#83

Defense
Total Defense-5.2#306
First Shot-3.4#280
After Offensive Rebounds-1.8#291
Layups/Dunks+1.4#134
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.5#30
3 Pt Jumpshots-6.3#342
Freethrows-1.1#243
Improvement+1.4#80
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.2% 1.8% 0.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.7 15.5 15.9
.500 or above 19.1% 32.6% 9.6%
.500 or above in Conference 10.2% 13.0% 8.2%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 9.6% 7.4% 11.1%
First Four0.6% 0.7% 0.6%
First Round1.0% 1.5% 0.6%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: California Baptist (Away) - 41.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 40 - 5
Quad 33 - 53 - 10
Quad 45 - 28 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Dec 04, 2020 126   @ Loyola Marymount L 61-85 15%     0 - 1 -19.4 -11.5 -5.9
  Dec 06, 2020 262   Seattle W 80-75 55%     1 - 1 -2.8 -2.1 -1.0
  Dec 10, 2020 76   @ San Francisco L 62-107 8%     1 - 2 -35.9 -12.3 -18.6
  Jan 01, 2021 147   Cal St. Bakersfield W 90-89 OT 29%     2 - 2 +0.3 +6.0 -5.9
  Jan 02, 2021 147   Cal St. Bakersfield L 76-89 29%     2 - 3 -13.7 +6.2 -20.0
  Jan 08, 2021 246   @ Cal St. Fullerton W 82-80 39%     3 - 3 1 - 0 -1.4 -1.2 -0.5
  Jan 09, 2021 246   @ Cal St. Fullerton L 72-75 OT 39%     3 - 4 1 - 1 -6.4 -12.2 +6.3
  Jan 23, 2021 275   @ California Baptist L 81-82 41%    
  Jan 29, 2021 240   UC San Diego W 72-71 56%    
  Jan 30, 2021 240   UC San Diego W 72-71 55%    
  Feb 05, 2021 90   @ UC Santa Barbara L 70-84 6%    
  Feb 06, 2021 90   @ UC Santa Barbara L 70-84 7%    
  Feb 12, 2021 248   @ UC Davis L 83-86 35%    
  Feb 13, 2021 248   @ UC Davis L 83-86 36%    
  Feb 19, 2021 332   Cal Poly W 81-72 82%    
  Feb 20, 2021 332   Cal Poly W 81-72 83%    
  Feb 27, 2021 218   @ Hawaii L 79-83 32%    
  Mar 05, 2021 105   UC Irvine L 71-80 22%    
  Mar 06, 2021 105   UC Irvine L 71-80 22%    
Projected Record 8 - 11 5 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big West Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.5 2nd
3rd 0.5 1.1 1.2 0.4 3.3 3rd
4th 1.2 5.5 4.4 1.0 0.1 12.2 4th
5th 0.9 8.4 6.2 1.4 16.9 5th
6th 0.4 7.0 9.0 2.1 0.0 18.5 6th
7th 0.1 4.3 10.9 3.0 0.2 18.4 7th
8th 2.9 8.9 3.6 0.2 15.6 8th
9th 1.5 6.2 3.2 0.2 11.1 9th
10th 0.6 1.9 1.1 0.1 3.6 10th
Total 0.6 3.4 10.3 16.8 22.4 21.8 14.6 6.9 2.3 0.8 0.1 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5 27.6% 0.0    0.0
10-6 0.0%
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5 0.1% 0.1
10-6 0.8% 5.0% 5.0% 15.0 0.0 0.8
9-7 2.3% 6.6% 6.6% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 2.1
8-8 6.9% 2.2% 2.2% 15.3 0.1 0.0 6.8
7-9 14.6% 2.4% 2.4% 15.8 0.1 0.3 14.2
6-10 21.8% 1.6% 1.6% 15.9 0.0 0.3 21.4
5-11 22.4% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.2 22.3
4-12 16.8% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 16.8
3-13 10.3% 10.3
2-14 3.4% 3.4
1-15 0.6% 0.6
0-16
Total 100% 1.2% 1.2% 0.0% 15.7 0.0 0.3 0.9 98.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.4%