Louisiana Monroe
Sun Belt
2019-20 - 2020-21 - 2021-22
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Overall
Predictive Rating-8.4#298
Expected Predictive Rating-10.5#301
Pace66.7#260
Improvement-2.5#305

Offense
Total Offense-5.3#305
First Shot-1.8#227
After Offensive Rebound-3.4#321
Layup/Dunks-0.8#205
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.2#107
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.2#179
Freethrows-2.1#297
Improvement-0.4#208

Defense
Total Defense-3.1#263
First Shot-2.9#267
After Offensive Rebounds-0.2#192
Layups/Dunks+3.8#62
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#160
3 Pt Jumpshots-7.3#343
Freethrows+0.3#163
Improvement-2.1#299
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 n/a
.500 or above 0.1% 0.4% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 2.1% 5.2% 0.9%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 43.6% 24.6% 51.2%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Texas St. (Home) - 28.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 20 - 10 - 2
Quad 31 - 81 - 10
Quad 45 - 87 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Dec 03, 2020 106   @ Louisiana Tech L 62-78 9%     0 - 1 -9.8 -6.4 -3.3
  Dec 06, 2020 320   @ Northwestern St. W 92-83 OT 53%     1 - 1 -0.3 +2.0 -3.4
  Dec 09, 2020 306   Lamar L 60-63 60%     1 - 2 -14.0 -16.9 +3.0
  Dec 12, 2020 160   Stephen F. Austin W 66-55 26%     2 - 2 +9.3 -1.6 +11.9
  Dec 16, 2020 313   Grambling St. L 61-78 63%     2 - 3 -28.7 -13.6 -15.5
  Dec 19, 2020 214   @ Southern Miss L 47-60 26%     2 - 4 -14.8 -20.1 +3.9
  Dec 22, 2020 106   Louisiana Tech L 57-68 15%     2 - 5 -8.3 -15.3 +7.6
  Jan 01, 2021 281   Arkansas St. W 84-72 52%     3 - 5 1 - 0 +3.1 +2.9 -0.2
  Jan 02, 2021 281   Arkansas St. W 62-55 52%     4 - 5 2 - 0 -1.9 -13.9 +12.2
  Jan 08, 2021 188   Texas Arlington L 64-77 34%     4 - 6 2 - 1 -17.0 -11.4 -5.5
  Jan 09, 2021 188   Texas Arlington L 74-75 34%     4 - 7 2 - 2 -5.0 +1.6 -6.7
  Jan 15, 2021 281   @ Arkansas St. L 72-74 39%     4 - 8 2 - 3 -7.5 -8.0 +0.6
  Jan 16, 2021 281   @ Arkansas St. L 72-93 39%     4 - 9 2 - 4 -26.5 -6.1 -20.0
  Jan 22, 2021 151   Texas St. L 60-67 28%    
  Jan 23, 2021 151   Texas St. L 60-67 29%    
  Jan 29, 2021 153   @ Arkansas Little Rock L 65-76 14%    
  Jan 30, 2021 153   @ Arkansas Little Rock L 65-76 14%    
  Feb 05, 2021 188   @ Texas Arlington L 67-75 20%    
  Feb 06, 2021 188   @ Texas Arlington L 67-75 20%    
  Feb 11, 2021 167   @ Louisiana L 64-73 17%    
  Feb 13, 2021 167   Louisiana L 65-71 34%    
  Feb 19, 2021 153   Arkansas Little Rock L 67-74 30%    
  Feb 20, 2021 153   Arkansas Little Rock L 67-74 30%    
  Feb 26, 2021 151   @ Texas St. L 58-69 14%    
  Feb 27, 2021 151   @ Texas St. L 58-69 14%    
Projected Record 7 - 18 5 - 13




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 3rd
4th 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.5 4th
5th 0.3 0.6 0.1 1.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 1.1 0.4 0.0 1.7 6th
7th 0.1 1.3 1.6 0.1 3.1 7th
8th 0.1 1.6 3.1 0.9 0.0 5.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.5 3.2 6.0 2.8 0.1 12.6 9th
10th 0.0 1.2 5.3 8.9 5.1 0.5 21.0 10th
11th 1.5 7.5 11.8 6.9 1.4 0.0 29.1 11th
12th 7.2 10.5 5.8 1.3 0.1 24.9 12th
Total 8.8 19.1 23.4 20.4 14.3 7.9 4.0 1.5 0.5 0.1 0.0 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 33.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-7 9.1% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.0% 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 4.5% 4.5% 16.0 0.0 0.1
10-8 0.5% 0.5
9-9 1.5% 1.5
8-10 4.0% 4.0
7-11 7.9% 7.9
6-12 14.3% 14.3
5-13 20.4% 20.4
4-14 23.4% 23.4
3-15 19.1% 19.1
2-16 8.8% 8.8
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 100.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 8.8%