Louisiana Tech
Conference USA
2019-20 - 2020-21 - 2021-22
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Overall
Predictive Rating+4.4#110
Expected Predictive Rating+5.2#102
Pace70.3#167
Improvement+4.3#12

Offense
Total Offense+0.1#172
First Shot-0.8#198
After Offensive Rebound+0.8#129
Layup/Dunks+4.0#46
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.5#294
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.4#282
Freethrows+1.0#119
Improvement+0.1#159

Defense
Total Defense+4.3#64
First Shot+2.6#87
After Offensive Rebounds+1.7#63
Layups/Dunks+1.1#151
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.0#102
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.7#207
Freethrows+1.1#120
Improvement+4.2#7
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 13.8% 15.9% 11.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.5% 0.9% 0.1%
Average Seed 12.9 12.7 13.2
.500 or above 99.6% 100.0% 99.2%
.500 or above in Conference 94.3% 97.9% 90.0%
Conference Champion 27.1% 36.7% 15.7%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.4% 0.6% 0.1%
First Round13.6% 15.6% 11.3%
Second Round2.2% 2.7% 1.6%
Sweet Sixteen0.5% 0.7% 0.3%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: UTEP (Away) - 54.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 23 - 33 - 5
Quad 34 - 37 - 8
Quad 412 - 120 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 27, 2020 188   Texas Arlington W 76-71 79%     1 - 0 +0.9 -5.9 +6.3
  Nov 29, 2020 318   Northwestern St. W 91-77 94%     2 - 0 +1.2 +10.0 -9.0
  Dec 03, 2020 296   Louisiana Monroe W 78-62 91%     3 - 0 +5.9 +0.2 +5.4
  Dec 06, 2020 30   @ LSU L 55-86 18%     3 - 1 -16.8 -19.5 +4.9
  Dec 09, 2020 323   SE Louisiana W 78-69 94%     4 - 1 -4.2 +1.7 -5.5
  Dec 12, 2020 169   @ Louisiana L 56-61 63%     4 - 2 -4.0 -16.5 +12.8
  Dec 15, 2020 311   Jackson St. W 85-58 92%     5 - 2 +15.5 +3.9 +9.5
  Dec 19, 2020 306   Lamar W 86-57 92%     6 - 2 +18.0 +4.3 +11.7
  Dec 22, 2020 296   @ Louisiana Monroe W 68-57 85%     7 - 2 +4.5 -10.5 +14.4
  Jan 01, 2021 89   Marshall W 75-68 50%     8 - 2 1 - 0 +11.2 +2.9 +8.2
  Jan 02, 2021 89   Marshall L 73-80 50%     8 - 3 1 - 1 -2.8 -1.4 -1.0
  Jan 08, 2021 86   @ Western Kentucky L 64-66 35%     8 - 4 1 - 2 +6.4 -5.7 +12.1
  Jan 09, 2021 86   @ Western Kentucky W 63-58 35%     9 - 4 2 - 2 +13.4 -0.9 +14.7
  Jan 15, 2021 213   Texas San Antonio W 77-66 82%     10 - 4 3 - 2 +5.8 -11.0 +15.6
  Jan 16, 2021 213   Texas San Antonio W 82-66 82%     11 - 4 4 - 2 +10.8 +5.8 +5.6
  Jan 22, 2021 160   @ UTEP W 69-67 54%    
  Jan 23, 2021 160   @ UTEP W 69-67 54%    
  Jan 28, 2021 217   @ Southern Miss W 68-62 68%    
  Jan 30, 2021 217   Southern Miss W 70-60 85%    
  Feb 05, 2021 90   @ North Texas L 62-65 34%    
  Feb 06, 2021 90   @ North Texas L 62-65 34%    
  Feb 12, 2021 95   UAB W 68-67 57%    
  Feb 13, 2021 95   UAB W 68-67 57%    
  Feb 19, 2021 266   @ Middle Tennessee W 70-61 76%    
  Feb 20, 2021 266   @ Middle Tennessee W 70-61 76%    
  Feb 26, 2021 185   Rice W 75-67 81%    
  Feb 27, 2021 185   Rice W 75-67 80%    
Projected Record 19 - 8 12 - 6





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Conference USA Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.6 4.5 9.3 8.0 3.9 0.8 27.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 4.9 10.5 6.9 1.9 0.2 24.8 2nd
3rd 0.1 3.4 9.0 5.4 0.8 0.0 18.6 3rd
4th 0.0 1.3 6.1 4.0 0.5 0.0 12.0 4th
5th 0.2 3.0 3.6 0.5 0.0 7.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.8 2.7 0.8 0.0 4.3 6th
7th 0.1 1.5 1.2 0.0 2.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 1.1 0.1 1.6 8th
9th 0.1 0.5 0.2 0.8 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.5 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 13th
14th 14th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.4 3.8 8.3 14.2 19.1 21.0 17.0 9.9 4.1 0.8 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 0.8    0.8 0.0
15-3 95.5% 3.9    3.2 0.6
14-4 81.0% 8.0    5.5 2.3 0.1 0.0
13-5 54.7% 9.3    4.1 4.1 1.1 0.1 0.0
12-6 21.6% 4.5    1.0 1.9 1.3 0.3 0.0
11-7 3.4% 0.6    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
10-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 27.1% 27.1 14.6 9.1 2.8 0.5 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 0.8% 47.5% 32.6% 15.0% 9.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.4 22.2%
15-3 4.1% 29.9% 25.1% 4.8% 11.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.2 0.0 2.8 6.4%
14-4 9.9% 22.1% 21.2% 1.0% 12.3 0.0 0.2 1.1 0.8 0.1 7.7 1.2%
13-5 17.0% 17.9% 17.7% 0.1% 12.7 0.0 0.1 1.0 1.6 0.3 0.0 13.9 0.2%
12-6 21.0% 14.3% 14.3% 13.1 0.0 0.5 1.6 0.8 0.1 18.0
11-7 19.1% 12.3% 12.3% 13.5 0.1 1.0 1.0 0.2 16.8
10-8 14.2% 8.2% 8.2% 13.8 0.0 0.4 0.6 0.2 0.0 13.0
9-9 8.3% 4.6% 4.6% 14.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 8.0
8-10 3.8% 2.3% 2.3% 14.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.7
7-11 1.4% 1.3% 1.3% 15.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.4
6-12 0.4% 1.1% 1.1% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.4
5-13 0.1% 0.1
4-14 0.0% 0.0
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 13.8% 13.4% 0.4% 12.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.6 3.5 5.7 3.0 0.6 0.0 86.2 0.5%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.3% 100.0% 8.7 0.8 5.3 3.8 14.3 20.3 23.3 13.5 14.3 4.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.2% 26.0% 11.5 2.6 10.4 10.4 2.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2% 20.6% 11.2 1.0 2.9 8.8 5.9 2.0