Loyola Chicago
Missouri Valley
2019-20 - 2020-21 - 2021-22
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Overall
Predictive Rating+12.7#28
Expected Predictive Rating+9.0#68
Pace63.3#316
Improvement+2.9#42

Offense
Total Offense+5.5#58
First Shot+7.5#21
After Offensive Rebound-1.9#271
Layup/Dunks+6.4#16
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.0#270
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.5#68
Freethrows-0.5#206
Improvement+0.2#161

Defense
Total Defense+7.1#18
First Shot+5.7#30
After Offensive Rebounds+1.4#84
Layups/Dunks+3.1#85
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.2#300
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.2#93
Freethrows+2.5#37
Improvement+2.7#23
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 1.4% 2.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 4.2% 5.8% 0.5%
Top 6 Seed 9.6% 12.6% 2.5%
NCAA Tourney Bid 70.0% 76.4% 54.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 46.4% 55.0% 29.8%
Average Seed 9.3 9.1 10.3
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 11.1% 13.1% 6.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four6.9% 7.0% 6.4%
First Round67.0% 73.4% 51.7%
Second Round35.9% 40.6% 24.7%
Sweet Sixteen13.4% 15.2% 9.0%
Elite Eight5.6% 6.4% 3.7%
Final Four1.8% 2.0% 1.3%
Championship Game0.8% 0.9% 0.5%
National Champion0.3% 0.4% 0.0%

Next Game: Bradley (Away) - 70.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 12 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 21 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 11 - 3
Quad 23 - 35 - 5
Quad 34 - 19 - 6
Quad 411 - 019 - 6


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Dec 09, 2020 347   Chicago St. W 88-51 99.6%    1 - 0 +14.7 +9.1 +5.5
  Dec 13, 2020 213   @ Illinois-Chicago W 77-66 90%     2 - 0 +9.4 +9.3 +0.5
  Dec 15, 2020 11   @ Wisconsin L 63-77 29%     2 - 1 +4.4 +2.2 +1.7
  Dec 18, 2020 49   Richmond L 73-75 58%     2 - 2 +8.6 +1.5 +7.2
  Dec 27, 2020 207   Illinois St. W 90-60 94%     3 - 2 1 - 0 +25.1 +15.7 +9.7
  Dec 28, 2020 207   Illinois St. W 86-55 94%     4 - 2 2 - 0 +26.1 +17.5 +11.0
  Jan 02, 2021 91   North Texas W 57-49 79%     5 - 2 +12.0 -5.5 +18.5
  Jan 10, 2021 129   @ Indiana St. L 71-76 78%     5 - 3 2 - 1 -0.4 +0.8 -1.1
  Jan 11, 2021 129   @ Indiana St. W 58-48 78%     6 - 3 3 - 1 +14.6 +2.8 +14.3
  Jan 16, 2021 146   Northern Iowa W 72-57 89%     7 - 3 4 - 1 +14.5 +7.6 +9.0
  Jan 17, 2021 146   Northern Iowa W 88-46 89%     8 - 3 5 - 1 +41.5 +17.8 +25.7
  Jan 20, 2021 224   @ Valparaiso W 75-39 91%     9 - 3 6 - 1 +33.8 +7.9 +28.4
  Jan 24, 2021 118   @ Bradley W 68-61 71%    
  Jan 25, 2021 118   @ Bradley W 68-61 72%    
  Jan 31, 2021 92   @ Missouri St. W 71-66 65%    
  Feb 01, 2021 92   @ Missouri St. W 71-66 63%    
  Feb 06, 2021 238   Evansville W 71-52 97%    
  Feb 07, 2021 238   Evansville W 71-52 97%    
  Feb 13, 2021 46   @ Drake L 67-68 46%    
  Feb 14, 2021 46   @ Drake L 67-68 45%    
  Feb 17, 2021 224   Valparaiso W 75-56 97%    
  Feb 26, 2021 170   Southern Illinois W 73-58 94%    
  Feb 27, 2021 170   Southern Illinois W 73-58 93%    
Projected Record 17 - 6 14 - 4





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.7 2.7 4.4 3.3 11.1 1st
2nd 0.2 1.8 11.0 23.0 25.4 11.7 2.4 75.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.8 4.0 4.2 1.2 0.1 10.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 1.0 1.2 0.1 0.0 2.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.0 0.8 5th
6th 0.1 0.1 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
Total 0.0 0.6 2.3 7.0 15.3 24.9 28.1 16.0 5.6 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 57.9% 3.3    2.0 1.2
16-2 27.3% 4.4    2.4 2.0
15-3 9.5% 2.7    1.3 1.3 0.1
14-4 2.9% 0.7    0.1 0.4 0.2
13-5 0.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 11.1% 11.1 5.8 5.0 0.3 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 5.6% 99.3% 63.4% 35.9% 4.2 0.2 1.2 1.1 0.9 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.0 98.1%
16-2 16.0% 95.3% 55.8% 39.5% 7.5 0.2 0.6 1.8 2.0 3.1 2.5 2.7 1.8 0.6 0.1 0.7 89.5%
15-3 28.1% 84.0% 48.3% 35.7% 9.8 0.0 0.4 1.1 2.9 4.7 6.8 5.4 2.3 0.1 4.5 69.1%
14-4 24.9% 63.6% 40.3% 23.3% 10.9 0.1 0.5 1.6 3.5 4.7 4.4 1.0 9.1 39.0%
13-5 15.3% 45.4% 34.3% 11.1% 11.6 0.0 0.1 0.4 2.5 3.2 0.7 0.0 8.4 16.9%
12-6 7.0% 33.1% 32.0% 1.1% 11.9 0.1 0.6 1.1 0.5 0.0 4.7 1.7%
11-7 2.3% 12.1% 12.1% 12.4 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 2.0
10-8 0.6% 13.3% 13.3% 13.0 0.1 0.5
9-9 0.0% 0.0
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 70.0% 44.0% 26.0% 9.3 0.2 1.2 1.3 1.5 2.4 3.0 4.9 6.1 9.3 12.6 13.9 11.1 2.5 0.0 30.0 46.4%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 3.6% 100.0% 2.9 4.4 34.7 31.8 23.7 5.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.9% 100.0% 6.1 4.5 33.1 25.2 28.8 4.2 4.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.8% 99.9% 6.9 5.0 5.1 35.0 20.3 19.8 14.5