Maryland Baltimore Co.
America East
2019-20 - 2020-21 - 2021-22
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Overall
Predictive Rating-0.9#172
Expected Predictive Rating+2.7#131
Pace69.2#201
Improvement-2.3#292

Offense
Total Offense-3.1#256
First Shot-1.8#220
After Offensive Rebound-1.3#244
Layup/Dunks+0.6#148
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.6#300
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.7#237
Freethrows+1.9#63
Improvement-2.2#300

Defense
Total Defense+2.2#123
First Shot+4.1#60
After Offensive Rebounds-1.9#298
Layups/Dunks+1.6#127
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.4#222
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#139
Freethrows+2.0#61
Improvement-0.1#188
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 15.0% 15.4% 12.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.7 14.7 15.3
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 90.8% 96.0% 51.0%
Conference Champion 10.5% 11.8% 0.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.7% 0.5% 1.8%
First Round14.7% 15.1% 11.5%
Second Round0.5% 0.6% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Maine (Home) - 88.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 20 - 10 - 1
Quad 36 - 26 - 4
Quad 49 - 315 - 6


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 25, 2020 108   @ Georgetown L 62-70 25%     0 - 1 -1.7 -15.3 +14.6
  Nov 28, 2020 257   @ St. Francis (PA) W 80-65 61%     1 - 1 +11.1 +4.4 +6.6
  Dec 07, 2020 205   George Washington W 92-81 65%     2 - 1 +6.0 +9.4 -4.1
  Dec 08, 2020 226   Delaware W 76-61 69%     3 - 1 +9.0 +4.8 +5.0
  Dec 13, 2020 322   @ Coppin St. W 66-49 79%     4 - 1 +7.5 -13.3 +19.5
  Dec 19, 2020 208   @ Albany W 65-64 53%     5 - 1 1 - 0 -0.6 -5.6 +5.1
  Dec 20, 2020 208   @ Albany W 65-60 53%     6 - 1 2 - 0 +3.4 -11.1 +14.3
  Dec 27, 2020 337   Binghamton W 74-67 91%     7 - 1 3 - 0 -8.5 -6.9 -1.4
  Dec 28, 2020 337   Binghamton L 69-75 91%     7 - 2 3 - 1 -21.5 -14.9 -6.6
  Jan 09, 2021 227   @ New Hampshire W 69-54 56%     8 - 2 4 - 1 +12.7 -2.7 +15.8
  Jan 10, 2021 227   @ New Hampshire W 68-66 56%     9 - 2 5 - 1 -0.3 +2.1 -2.2
  Jan 16, 2021 221   Hartford L 63-70 68%     9 - 3 5 - 2 -12.8 -11.0 -1.8
  Jan 17, 2021 221   Hartford W 57-49 68%     10 - 3 6 - 2 +2.2 -10.2 +13.3
  Jan 30, 2021 318   Maine W 66-54 88%    
  Jan 31, 2021 318   Maine W 66-54 89%    
  Feb 18, 2021 242   @ NJIT W 68-66 55%    
  Feb 19, 2021 242   @ NJIT W 68-66 56%    
  Feb 27, 2021 107   Vermont L 63-67 39%    
  Feb 28, 2021 107   Vermont L 63-67 41%    
Projected Record 14 - 5 9 - 3




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected America East Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.6 9.9 10.5 1st
2nd 0.9 11.5 5.2 17.6 2nd
3rd 0.2 11.3 20.4 0.1 32.0 3rd
4th 1.5 20.2 5.1 26.9 4th
5th 0.1 4.6 5.1 0.1 9.9 5th
6th 0.4 1.9 0.3 2.6 6th
7th 0.3 0.2 0.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 8th
9th 9th
Total 0.8 8.4 37.8 37.8 15.2 Total



America East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5
10-6 65.2% 9.9    1.1 5.0 3.2 0.5
9-7 1.6% 0.6    0.0 0.3 0.2 0.1
8-8 0.0%
Total 10.5% 10.5 1.1 5.0 3.5 0.8 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5
10-6 15.2% 24.3% 24.3% 14.1 0.0 0.7 1.7 1.1 0.1 11.5
9-7 37.8% 17.4% 17.4% 14.6 0.6 2.0 3.1 0.9 31.2
8-8 37.8% 10.5% 10.5% 15.2 0.0 0.4 2.3 1.3 33.9
7-9 8.4% 8.1% 8.1% 15.5 0.1 0.2 0.4 7.7
6-10 0.8% 9.5% 9.5% 16.0 0.1 0.8
5-11
4-12
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 15.0% 15.0% 0.0% 14.7 0.0 1.4 4.2 6.6 2.8 85.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.3% 100.0% 13.5 3.5 44.7 51.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 1.2%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 2.1%