Miami (FL)
Atlantic Coast
2019-20 - 2020-21 - 2021-22
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Overall
Predictive Rating+5.8#93
Expected Predictive Rating+4.0#119
Pace69.0#205
Improvement-1.7#270

Offense
Total Offense+2.1#119
First Shot+2.5#109
After Offensive Rebound-0.4#197
Layup/Dunks+5.4#27
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.8#261
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.6#323
Freethrows+4.4#4
Improvement+1.3#80

Defense
Total Defense+3.7#78
First Shot+2.0#113
After Offensive Rebounds+1.7#65
Layups/Dunks+2.5#95
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.1#183
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.7#320
Freethrows+4.0#7
Improvement-3.0#329
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.7% 2.5% 0.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 1.3% 1.9% 0.3%
Average Seed 11.1 11.0 11.7
.500 or above 12.9% 18.8% 4.9%
.500 or above in Conference 4.3% 6.7% 1.0%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 12.0% 5.8% 20.4%
First Four0.6% 0.8% 0.2%
First Round1.3% 2.0% 0.4%
Second Round0.5% 0.7% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Notre Dame (Home) - 57.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b2 - 42 - 7
Quad 24 - 66 - 13
Quad 32 - 28 - 15
Quad 43 - 111 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 29, 2020 260   North Florida W 77-59 90%     1 - 0 +10.1 -10.8 +19.1
  Dec 04, 2020 231   Stetson W 82-60 87%     2 - 0 +15.6 +4.0 +11.0
  Dec 08, 2020 28   Purdue W 58-54 30%     3 - 0 +15.2 -5.4 +20.9
  Dec 12, 2020 276   Florida Gulf Coast L 62-66 91%     3 - 1 -12.9 -10.4 -2.6
  Dec 16, 2020 59   Pittsburgh L 55-70 41%     3 - 2 0 - 1 -7.0 -13.5 +7.0
  Dec 19, 2020 289   Jacksonville W 73-64 92%     4 - 2 -0.6 -0.7 +0.4
  Dec 29, 2020 41   @ Virginia Tech L 78-80 25%     4 - 3 0 - 2 +11.0 +7.1 +4.0
  Jan 02, 2021 55   Clemson L 65-66 40%     4 - 4 0 - 3 +7.5 +2.7 +4.7
  Jan 05, 2021 35   North Carolina L 65-67 33%     4 - 5 0 - 4 +8.2 -7.3 +15.6
  Jan 09, 2021 68   @ North Carolina St. W 64-59 34%     5 - 5 1 - 4 +15.0 +1.7 +13.8
  Jan 12, 2021 107   @ Boston College L 62-84 48%     5 - 6 1 - 5 -15.7 -4.2 -13.1
  Jan 16, 2021 37   Louisville W 78-72 35%     6 - 6 2 - 5 +15.8 +11.2 +4.7
  Jan 19, 2021 44   @ Syracuse L 57-83 25%     6 - 7 2 - 6 -13.2 -9.7 -4.2
  Jan 24, 2021 82   Notre Dame W 73-72 58%    
  Jan 26, 2021 14   @ Florida St. L 67-79 11%    
  Jan 30, 2021 103   @ Wake Forest L 72-73 43%    
  Feb 01, 2021 53   Duke L 71-74 43%    
  Feb 06, 2021 41   Virginia Tech L 65-69 42%    
  Feb 08, 2021 35   @ North Carolina L 67-75 20%    
  Feb 14, 2021 82   @ Notre Dame L 71-74 36%    
  Feb 20, 2021 51   Georgia Tech L 68-71 43%    
  Feb 24, 2021 14   Florida St. L 69-77 27%    
  Feb 27, 2021 55   @ Clemson L 62-68 25%    
  Mar 01, 2021 8   @ Virginia L 54-67 9%    
  Mar 05, 2021 107   Boston College W 74-71 65%    
Projected Record 10 - 15 6 - 14





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.5 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 0.4 0.0 0.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 1.1 0.2 0.0 1.7 5th
6th 0.1 1.5 0.9 0.0 2.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.9 2.5 0.4 3.8 7th
8th 0.3 3.2 2.1 0.1 5.7 8th
9th 0.1 2.5 5.0 0.7 8.3 9th
10th 0.0 1.7 6.7 2.9 0.1 11.4 10th
11th 0.0 0.9 6.7 6.5 0.6 14.8 11th
12th 0.0 0.5 5.7 8.6 2.0 0.0 16.9 12th
13th 0.3 4.2 8.5 3.3 0.2 16.5 13th
14th 0.2 2.4 5.8 3.0 0.3 0.0 11.7 14th
15th 0.9 2.4 1.6 0.2 0.0 5.1 15th
Total 1.1 5.2 12.1 18.4 20.7 18.3 12.8 7.2 3.0 1.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 100.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
13-7 64.7% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 7.9% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.2% 0.0    0.0
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.3% 79.5% 8.7% 70.9% 9.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 77.6%
11-9 1.0% 49.4% 4.9% 44.5% 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.5 46.8%
10-10 3.0% 17.7% 1.9% 15.8% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 2.5 16.1%
9-11 7.2% 2.5% 0.9% 1.6% 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 7.0 1.6%
8-12 12.8% 0.8% 0.8% 0.0% 12.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 12.7 0.0%
7-13 18.3% 0.4% 0.4% 13.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 18.2
6-14 20.7% 0.1% 0.1% 14.8 0.0 0.0 20.7
5-15 18.4% 0.1% 0.1% 15.2 0.0 0.0 18.4
4-16 12.1% 12.1
3-17 5.2% 5.2
2-18 1.1% 1.1
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 1.7% 0.4% 1.2% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 98.3 1.3%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 1.1%