Miami (OH)
Mid-American
2019-20 - 2020-21 - 2021-22
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Overall
Predictive Rating-0.5#166
Expected Predictive Rating+0.7#162
Pace65.4#279
Improvement+3.7#21

Offense
Total Offense+2.1#116
First Shot+3.9#71
After Offensive Rebound-1.8#272
Layup/Dunks-7.6#343
2 Pt Jumpshots+6.2#6
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.1#58
Freethrows+1.2#100
Improvement+3.9#14

Defense
Total Defense-2.5#240
First Shot-2.4#244
After Offensive Rebounds-0.1#189
Layups/Dunks+2.4#100
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.0#255
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.4#300
Freethrows-0.3#202
Improvement-0.2#197
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.6% 3.8% 1.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.2 13.8 14.6
.500 or above 44.8% 66.1% 34.4%
.500 or above in Conference 14.3% 27.9% 7.7%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.3% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.5% 0.0% 0.7%
First Four0.2% 0.1% 0.2%
First Round2.5% 3.8% 1.9%
Second Round0.3% 0.5% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Toledo (Home) - 32.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 21 - 51 - 7
Quad 33 - 34 - 10
Quad 47 - 110 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 25, 2020 281   North Dakota W 81-67 80%     1 - 0 +4.7 +5.6 -0.8
  Dec 05, 2020 65   @ Wright St. L 47-71 16%     1 - 1 -13.6 -19.9 +6.2
  Dec 09, 2020 319   Western Illinois W 67-57 87%     2 - 1 -2.5 -9.7 +7.6
  Dec 15, 2020 106   Buffalo L 62-90 38%     2 - 2 0 - 1 -25.2 -14.0 -9.6
  Dec 19, 2020 116   @ Bradley L 68-69 28%     2 - 3 +4.6 +9.3 -4.9
  Jan 09, 2021 299   Northern Illinois W 70-58 83%     3 - 3 1 - 1 +1.5 +1.3 +1.7
  Jan 12, 2021 124   @ Ohio L 61-78 30%     3 - 4 1 - 2 -12.2 -10.6 -2.3
  Jan 19, 2021 148   Ball St. W 81-71 52%     4 - 4 2 - 2 +9.1 +9.3 +0.0
  Jan 21, 2021 131   Bowling Green W 96-77 46%     5 - 4 3 - 2 +19.6 +24.6 -4.6
  Jan 26, 2021 74   Toledo L 71-77 33%    
  Jan 30, 2021 269   Western Michigan W 72-64 81%    
  Feb 02, 2021 96   @ Kent St. L 70-78 20%    
  Feb 06, 2021 106   @ Buffalo L 74-81 22%    
  Feb 09, 2021 264   Eastern Michigan W 72-64 79%    
  Feb 13, 2021 118   Akron L 71-73 46%    
  Feb 16, 2021 74   @ Toledo L 69-79 16%    
  Feb 20, 2021 299   @ Northern Illinois W 69-63 68%    
  Feb 27, 2021 96   Kent St. L 72-76 39%    
  Mar 02, 2021 131   @ Bowling Green L 71-76 29%    
  Mar 05, 2021 118   @ Akron L 69-75 26%    
Projected Record 10 - 10 8 - 8





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Mid-American Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 1st
2nd 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.8 2nd
3rd 0.2 0.9 0.6 0.0 1.7 3rd
4th 0.0 1.4 1.7 0.2 3.3 4th
5th 0.1 1.1 3.4 1.2 5.7 5th
6th 0.1 1.4 4.8 2.9 0.2 9.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 3.1 8.2 6.7 0.8 19.0 7th
8th 0.1 2.8 11.3 16.7 11.1 2.0 0.1 44.2 8th
9th 0.8 4.1 5.0 1.9 0.3 12.1 9th
10th 0.1 1.2 1.3 0.3 0.0 3.0 10th
11th 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.7 11th
12th 0.1 0.1 12th
Total 0.4 2.5 8.4 16.9 21.8 21.0 14.7 8.8 4.0 1.2 0.3 0.1 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 45.5% 0.0    0.0
13-7 17.9% 0.1    0.0 0.0
12-8 1.3% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.3% 21.4% 21.4% 12.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
12-8 1.2% 10.6% 10.6% 12.8 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.1
11-9 4.0% 9.2% 9.2% 13.5 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 3.6
10-10 8.8% 7.3% 7.3% 13.8 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.1 8.2
9-11 14.7% 2.9% 2.9% 14.2 0.0 0.3 0.1 0.0 14.3
8-12 21.0% 2.2% 2.2% 15.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 20.5
7-13 21.8% 1.1% 1.1% 15.4 0.1 0.1 21.6
6-14 16.9% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.1 16.8
5-15 8.4% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 8.4
4-16 2.5% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.0 2.4
3-17 0.4% 0.4
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 2.6% 2.5% 0.0% 14.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.4 97.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.3%