Michigan St.
Big Ten
2019-20 - 2020-21 - 2021-22
Switch to All-time Team Page
Overall
Predictive Rating+11.3#40
Expected Predictive Rating+10.5#57
Pace73.2#92
Improvement+1.5#84

Offense
Total Offense+5.6#55
First Shot+4.7#56
After Offensive Rebound+0.9#123
Layup/Dunks-2.5#261
2 Pt Jumpshots+5.6#12
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.8#198
Freethrows+2.4#44
Improvement+0.2#147

Defense
Total Defense+5.7#41
First Shot+4.3#56
After Offensive Rebounds+1.3#89
Layups/Dunks-0.7#195
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#107
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.1#43
Freethrows+0.0#187
Improvement+1.3#88
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 1.2% 2.3% 0.4%
Top 6 Seed 4.6% 8.5% 2.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 33.2% 48.2% 23.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 32.2% 47.2% 22.6%
Average Seed 9.1 8.7 9.6
.500 or above 71.3% 86.0% 61.7%
.500 or above in Conference 10.8% 19.3% 5.3%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 4.2% 1.4% 6.0%
First Four6.8% 7.7% 6.2%
First Round30.2% 44.9% 20.7%
Second Round16.2% 25.0% 10.6%
Sweet Sixteen5.9% 9.3% 3.7%
Elite Eight2.5% 3.9% 1.5%
Final Four0.8% 1.3% 0.5%
Championship Game0.3% 0.5% 0.1%
National Champion0.1% 0.2% 0.0%

Next Game: Illinois (Home) - 39.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 62 - 6
Quad 1b2 - 34 - 10
Quad 23 - 28 - 12
Quad 32 - 010 - 12
Quad 44 - 014 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 25, 2020 265   Eastern Michigan W 83-67 95%     1 - 0 +8.0 +4.7 +2.9
  Nov 28, 2020 82   Notre Dame W 80-70 73%     2 - 0 +15.0 -1.5 +15.6
  Dec 01, 2020 53   @ Duke W 75-69 46%     3 - 0 +18.3 -0.7 +18.4
  Dec 04, 2020 223   Detroit Mercy W 83-76 94%     4 - 0 +1.2 -1.6 +2.3
  Dec 06, 2020 267   Western Michigan W 79-61 95%     5 - 0 +9.8 +6.2 +4.3
  Dec 13, 2020 253   Oakland W 109-91 95%     6 - 0 +10.4 +16.5 -8.5
  Dec 20, 2020 73   @ Northwestern L 65-79 58%     6 - 1 0 - 1 -4.8 -2.6 -2.5
  Dec 25, 2020 11   Wisconsin L 76-85 37%     6 - 2 0 - 2 +5.8 +12.8 -7.2
  Dec 28, 2020 25   @ Minnesota L 56-81 36%     6 - 3 0 - 3 -9.9 -12.5 +4.0
  Jan 02, 2021 122   @ Nebraska W 84-77 72%     7 - 3 1 - 3 +12.1 +10.7 +1.2
  Jan 05, 2021 48   Rutgers W 68-45 59%     8 - 3 2 - 3 +31.9 +2.5 +30.2
  Jan 08, 2021 28   Purdue L 54-55 50%     8 - 4 2 - 4 +10.2 -5.2 +15.3
  Jan 23, 2021 9   Illinois L 74-78 39%    
  Jan 28, 2021 48   @ Rutgers L 72-73 41%    
  Jan 31, 2021 20   @ Ohio St. L 71-76 28%    
  Feb 03, 2021 122   Nebraska W 82-72 85%    
  Feb 06, 2021 4   @ Michigan L 69-78 18%    
  Feb 09, 2021 52   Penn St. W 78-75 64%    
  Feb 13, 2021 3   Iowa L 79-84 35%    
  Feb 16, 2021 28   @ Purdue L 67-71 33%    
  Feb 20, 2021 23   @ Indiana L 69-73 31%    
  Feb 25, 2021 20   Ohio St. L 73-74 49%    
  Feb 28, 2021 56   @ Maryland L 72-73 43%    
  Mar 07, 2021 4   Michigan L 71-76 37%    
Projected Record 13 - 11 7 - 11





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.6 3rd
4th 0.1 0.7 0.4 0.0 1.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.9 1.2 0.1 2.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.6 2.5 0.8 0.0 3.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 3.1 2.2 0.1 5.8 7th
8th 0.1 2.6 4.9 0.8 0.0 8.4 8th
9th 0.0 1.7 6.7 2.7 0.1 11.2 9th
10th 0.0 1.3 6.9 5.6 0.4 0.0 14.2 10th
11th 0.0 1.2 6.3 8.2 1.6 0.0 17.2 11th
12th 0.0 1.1 5.7 8.2 2.8 0.1 17.8 12th
13th 0.1 1.6 5.1 6.2 2.4 0.2 15.6 13th
14th 0.2 0.6 0.5 0.1 0.0 1.5 14th
Total 0.3 2.3 6.7 13.1 18.1 19.8 17.0 11.8 6.6 3.0 1.0 0.2 0.0 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 50.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
13-7 16.5% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 1.9% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.2% 100.0% 17.4% 82.6% 3.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 100.0%
12-8 1.0% 100.0% 8.0% 92.0% 4.7 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
11-9 3.0% 99.9% 7.5% 92.4% 6.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.9%
10-10 6.6% 98.1% 3.9% 94.3% 7.6 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.8 2.0 1.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.1 98.1%
9-11 11.8% 89.8% 2.6% 87.2% 9.1 0.0 0.2 0.4 1.0 2.2 2.6 2.2 1.8 0.3 0.0 1.2 89.6%
8-12 17.0% 52.1% 1.5% 50.6% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.3 2.6 3.1 0.4 0.0 8.1 51.3%
7-13 19.8% 13.5% 0.8% 12.7% 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.3 0.4 0.0 0.0 17.1 12.8%
6-14 18.1% 1.8% 0.5% 1.3% 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 17.8 1.3%
5-15 13.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 12.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 13.1 0.0%
4-16 6.7% 0.1% 0.1% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.7
3-17 2.3% 2.3
2-18 0.3% 0.3
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 33.2% 1.4% 31.8% 9.1 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 1.4 2.0 3.8 5.0 4.6 4.2 5.1 4.9 0.8 0.1 0.0 0.0 66.8 32.2%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.2%