Middle Tennessee
Conference USA
2019-20 - 2020-21 - 2021-22
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Overall
Predictive Rating-6.3#266
Expected Predictive Rating-9.5#293
Pace74.4#64
Improvement-2.9#312

Offense
Total Offense-8.7#331
First Shot-8.0#339
After Offensive Rebound-0.7#214
Layup/Dunks-4.2#307
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.2#159
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.3#179
Freethrows-3.7#335
Improvement-1.7#279

Defense
Total Defense+2.4#114
First Shot+0.9#146
After Offensive Rebounds+1.5#78
Layups/Dunks-7.5#341
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.5#78
3 Pt Jumpshots+7.5#6
Freethrows-0.6#216
Improvement-1.3#264
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.6 15.1 15.8
.500 or above 0.2% 0.8% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 0.4% 1.9% 0.1%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 66.2% 41.7% 71.5%
First Four0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
First Round0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Western Kentucky (Home) - 17.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 30 - 5
Quad 32 - 82 - 13
Quad 42 - 45 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 26, 2020 262   Nebraska Omaha L 59-60 49%     0 - 1 -7.1 -21.4 +14.4
  Nov 27, 2020 138   East Tennessee St. L 43-57 22%     0 - 2 -12.1 -30.8 +20.0
  Dec 02, 2020 165   Murray St. W 78-61 35%     1 - 2 +14.7 +1.6 +12.4
  Dec 07, 2020 175   Chattanooga L 70-80 36%     1 - 3 -12.7 -8.7 -3.6
  Dec 16, 2020 62   Mississippi L 51-70 11%     1 - 4 -11.6 -18.4 +7.4
  Jan 08, 2021 216   Florida International L 55-68 46%     1 - 5 0 - 1 -18.3 -20.1 +1.3
  Jan 09, 2021 216   Florida International W 67-56 46%     2 - 5 1 - 1 +5.7 -12.3 +17.7
  Jan 15, 2021 217   @ Southern Miss L 54-84 33%     2 - 6 1 - 2 -31.7 -19.9 -10.7
  Jan 16, 2021 217   @ Southern Miss L 59-64 33%     2 - 7 1 - 3 -6.7 -15.9 +9.4
  Jan 23, 2021 86   Western Kentucky L 62-73 18%    
  Jan 24, 2021 86   Western Kentucky L 62-73 18%    
  Jan 28, 2021 95   UAB L 60-70 21%    
  Jan 30, 2021 95   @ UAB L 58-72 8%    
  Feb 05, 2021 163   Charlotte L 58-63 38%    
  Feb 06, 2021 163   Charlotte L 58-63 37%    
  Feb 11, 2021 89   @ Marshall L 66-80 8%    
  Feb 13, 2021 89   @ Marshall L 66-80 8%    
  Feb 19, 2021 110   Louisiana Tech L 61-70 24%    
  Feb 20, 2021 110   Louisiana Tech L 61-70 25%    
  Feb 26, 2021 158   @ Old Dominion L 60-68 19%    
  Feb 27, 2021 158   @ Old Dominion L 60-68 20%    
Projected Record 4 - 17 3 - 13




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference USA Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 0.0 3rd
4th 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 4th
5th 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 0.1 0.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.0 0.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.8 0.4 1.3 8th
9th 0.1 0.9 1.0 0.1 2.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.7 2.7 0.6 0.0 4.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.9 3.3 2.5 0.1 6.8 11th
12th 0.1 1.4 5.4 6.2 0.7 0.0 13.8 12th
13th 0.2 3.1 9.1 8.6 2.2 0.1 23.4 13th
14th 10.1 18.6 13.8 4.2 0.3 47.0 14th
Total 10.2 21.8 24.3 19.1 12.9 7.0 2.8 1.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 47.4% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 0.0% 0.0
10-8 0.1% 11.4% 11.4% 14.1 0.0 0.0 0.1
9-9 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 14.0 0.0 0.3
8-10 1.4% 0.6% 0.6% 15.0 0.0 1.4
7-11 2.8% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.0 2.7
6-12 7.0% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 7.0
5-13 12.9% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 12.9
4-14 19.1% 19.1
3-15 24.3% 24.3
2-16 21.8% 21.8
1-17 10.2% 10.2
0-18
Total 100% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 99.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 10.2%