Mississippi St.
Southeastern
2019-20 - 2020-21 - 2021-22
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Overall
Predictive Rating+7.1#78
Expected Predictive Rating+5.9#94
Pace64.1#304
Improvement+1.0#106

Offense
Total Offense+4.7#70
First Shot+2.1#117
After Offensive Rebound+2.5#45
Layup/Dunks+0.7#143
2 Pt Jumpshots+5.4#15
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.2#301
Freethrows+0.2#164
Improvement-1.2#260

Defense
Total Defense+2.4#110
First Shot-1.1#196
After Offensive Rebounds+3.5#8
Layups/Dunks+3.3#79
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.7#239
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.8#321
Freethrows+1.2#114
Improvement+2.2#39
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.1% 0.7% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 8.3% 20.8% 6.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 7.2% 19.0% 5.9%
Average Seed 10.4 10.0 10.6
.500 or above 55.7% 82.4% 52.7%
.500 or above in Conference 38.2% 67.7% 34.9%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.8% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.9% 0.0% 1.0%
First Four2.4% 4.5% 2.1%
First Round6.9% 18.1% 5.6%
Second Round2.4% 6.8% 1.9%
Sweet Sixteen0.6% 1.7% 0.5%
Elite Eight0.2% 0.6% 0.2%
Final Four0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Alabama (Away) - 10.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 41 - 4
Quad 1b2 - 32 - 6
Quad 24 - 47 - 10
Quad 33 - 410 - 14
Quad 44 - 014 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 25, 2020 55   Clemson L 42-53 38%     0 - 1 -0.7 -21.0 +19.5
  Nov 26, 2020 117   Liberty L 73-84 63%     0 - 2 -7.3 +12.5 -21.4
  Nov 30, 2020 155   Texas St. W 68-51 79%     1 - 2 +15.7 +3.7 +14.0
  Dec 04, 2020 90   North Texas W 69-63 62%     2 - 2 +10.1 +7.9 +2.9
  Dec 08, 2020 311   Jackson St. W 82-59 95%     3 - 2 +11.5 +6.1 +5.0
  Dec 12, 2020 75   Dayton L 82-85 2OT 49%     3 - 3 +4.3 +0.7 +4.0
  Dec 16, 2020 281   Central Arkansas W 81-65 93%     4 - 3 +6.8 +4.6 +2.9
  Dec 21, 2020 348   Mississippi Valley W 87-48 99.7%    5 - 3 +8.7 +3.9 +7.1
  Dec 30, 2020 94   @ Georgia W 83-73 49%     6 - 3 1 - 0 +17.3 +8.5 +8.2
  Jan 02, 2021 60   Kentucky L 73-78 2OT 47%     6 - 4 1 - 1 +2.9 -2.1 +5.6
  Jan 05, 2021 38   Missouri W 78-63 40%     7 - 4 2 - 1 +24.7 +18.0 +8.0
  Jan 09, 2021 137   @ Vanderbilt W 84-81 63%     8 - 4 3 - 1 +6.8 +9.6 -2.9
  Jan 13, 2021 120   Texas A&M L 55-56 70%     8 - 5 3 - 2 +0.6 -3.0 +3.4
  Jan 16, 2021 22   Florida W 72-69 32%     9 - 5 4 - 2 +14.9 +2.3 +12.5
  Jan 19, 2021 62   Mississippi L 46-64 49%     9 - 6 4 - 3 -10.6 -15.0 +1.9
  Jan 23, 2021 7   @ Alabama L 70-82 10%    
  Jan 26, 2021 13   @ Tennessee L 59-69 14%    
  Jan 30, 2021 111   Iowa St. W 73-68 71%    
  Feb 02, 2021 42   @ Arkansas L 70-76 26%    
  Feb 06, 2021 69   @ South Carolina L 71-74 36%    
  Feb 10, 2021 30   LSU L 74-77 41%    
  Feb 13, 2021 137   Vanderbilt W 75-68 78%    
  Feb 16, 2021 64   @ Auburn L 69-72 33%    
  Feb 20, 2021 62   @ Mississippi L 64-68 32%    
  Feb 24, 2021 69   South Carolina W 73-72 58%    
  Feb 27, 2021 7   Alabama L 71-80 25%    
  Mar 03, 2021 120   @ Texas A&M W 64-62 52%    
Projected Record 14 - 13 8 - 10





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 0.8 0.3 0.0 0.0 1.6 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.1 2.3 0.9 0.1 0.0 4.4 3rd
4th 0.0 1.0 4.0 2.2 0.2 0.0 7.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 4.9 4.6 0.6 10.5 5th
6th 0.1 3.3 7.8 1.6 0.0 12.8 6th
7th 0.0 1.2 8.8 4.3 0.2 14.4 7th
8th 0.2 5.4 7.6 0.7 13.9 8th
9th 0.0 1.7 8.2 2.4 0.0 12.4 9th
10th 0.3 4.9 4.6 0.3 10.1 10th
11th 0.0 1.5 4.6 0.9 0.0 7.1 11th
12th 0.2 2.2 1.3 0.1 3.8 12th
13th 0.4 0.9 0.1 1.5 13th
14th 0.1 0.0 0.1 14th
Total 0.8 5.0 12.8 20.4 22.8 18.7 11.5 5.5 1.8 0.5 0.1 0.0 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 0.0%
14-4 41.5% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
13-5 12.8% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 1.7% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 0.0% 0.0
14-4 0.1% 100.0% 17.1% 82.9% 6.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
13-5 0.5% 92.6% 7.8% 84.8% 8.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 92.0%
12-6 1.8% 76.3% 7.2% 69.1% 9.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.4 74.5%
11-7 5.5% 49.8% 4.0% 45.8% 10.3 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.0 0.4 0.0 2.8 47.7%
10-8 11.5% 20.2% 2.3% 18.0% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.8 0.9 0.1 9.2 18.4%
9-9 18.7% 5.0% 1.2% 3.9% 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.1 0.0 17.8 3.9%
8-10 22.8% 1.0% 0.7% 0.3% 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 22.6 0.3%
7-11 20.4% 0.3% 0.3% 12.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 20.3
6-12 12.8% 0.2% 0.2% 14.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 12.8
5-13 5.0% 0.0% 0.0% 15.0 0.0 5.0
4-14 0.8% 0.8
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 8.3% 1.1% 7.1% 10.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.1 1.7 2.3 1.9 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 91.7 7.2%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.2%