Missouri St.
Missouri Valley
2019-20 - 2020-21 - 2021-22
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Overall
Predictive Rating+5.8#92
Expected Predictive Rating+10.2#58
Pace70.6#160
Improvement-0.3#196

Offense
Total Offense+4.9#65
First Shot+7.1#26
After Offensive Rebound-2.2#286
Layup/Dunks-2.0#241
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.5#55
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.2#38
Freethrows+1.4#93
Improvement-0.3#195

Defense
Total Defense+0.9#147
First Shot+1.8#118
After Offensive Rebounds-0.9#233
Layups/Dunks+4.2#50
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.8#336
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#159
Freethrows+0.9#131
Improvement+0.0#184
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.4% 1.1% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 11.2% 17.2% 7.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 2.3% 5.4% 0.7%
Average Seed 11.8 11.2 12.6
.500 or above 99.2% 99.9% 98.9%
.500 or above in Conference 94.6% 98.9% 92.1%
Conference Champion 0.4% 1.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four1.5% 3.2% 0.6%
First Round10.3% 15.5% 7.4%
Second Round2.7% 4.7% 1.6%
Sweet Sixteen0.8% 1.4% 0.4%
Elite Eight0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Loyola Chicago (Home) - 36.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 11 - 2
Quad 35 - 27 - 4
Quad 48 - 114 - 5


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Dec 19, 2020 318   Northwestern St. W 94-67 95%     1 - 0 +14.2 +7.3 +4.9
  Dec 21, 2020 156   Arkansas Little Rock W 85-77 75%     2 - 0 +6.6 +7.7 -1.2
  Dec 27, 2020 148   @ Northern Iowa W 79-59 61%     3 - 0 1 - 0 +23.0 +6.4 +16.7
  Dec 28, 2020 148   @ Northern Iowa L 75-85 61%     3 - 1 1 - 1 -7.0 -2.3 -4.0
  Jan 02, 2021 125   Indiana St. W 84-74 68%     4 - 1 2 - 1 +11.0 +6.1 +4.1
  Jan 03, 2021 125   Indiana St. W 70-66 68%     5 - 1 3 - 1 +5.0 -1.3 +6.3
  Jan 09, 2021 220   @ Valparaiso W 81-68 78%     6 - 1 4 - 1 +10.8 +10.7 +0.4
  Jan 10, 2021 220   @ Valparaiso W 78-68 78%     7 - 1 5 - 1 +7.8 +4.3 +3.3
  Jan 31, 2021 29   Loyola Chicago L 66-71 36%    
  Feb 01, 2021 29   Loyola Chicago L 66-71 36%    
  Feb 06, 2021 208   @ Illinois St. W 78-71 71%    
  Feb 07, 2021 208   @ Illinois St. W 78-71 71%    
  Feb 10, 2021 174   Southern Illinois W 76-67 81%    
  Feb 13, 2021 114   Bradley W 73-69 68%    
  Feb 14, 2021 114   Bradley W 73-69 68%    
  Feb 17, 2021 174   @ Southern Illinois W 74-69 63%    
  Feb 26, 2021 241   @ Evansville W 72-63 76%    
  Feb 27, 2021 241   @ Evansville W 72-63 76%    
Projected Record 13 - 5 11 - 5





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.4 1st
2nd 0.1 1.4 5.7 6.8 2.3 16.2 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.9 8.8 15.3 11.3 2.2 0.0 39.6 3rd
4th 0.0 1.3 6.6 9.4 4.8 1.0 0.1 23.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 3.8 4.9 2.0 0.3 0.0 11.5 5th
6th 0.1 1.7 2.6 1.0 0.1 5.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.6 1.4 0.5 0.0 0.0 2.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 10th
Total 0.0 0.3 1.3 3.8 8.3 14.3 20.4 21.8 18.0 9.2 2.5 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 7.6% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
14-4 1.8% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-5 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.4% 0.4 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 2.5% 60.8% 26.9% 33.9% 9.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.0 46.4%
14-4 9.2% 28.7% 18.5% 10.2% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.7 1.1 0.3 0.0 6.6 12.5%
13-5 18.0% 14.9% 13.3% 1.6% 12.1 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.5 0.7 0.0 15.3 1.9%
12-6 21.8% 9.4% 9.2% 0.2% 12.6 0.0 0.1 0.9 0.9 0.2 0.0 19.8 0.2%
11-7 20.4% 6.7% 6.7% 0.0% 13.0 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.3 0.0 19.0 0.0%
10-8 14.3% 4.6% 4.6% 13.5 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 13.7
9-9 8.3% 2.4% 2.4% 14.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 8.1
8-10 3.8% 1.4% 1.4% 14.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.7
7-11 1.3% 0.9% 0.9% 15.5 0.0 0.0 1.3
6-12 0.3% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 0.3
5-13 0.0% 0.0
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 11.2% 9.1% 2.1% 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 1.5 4.0 2.9 1.0 0.2 0.0 88.8 2.3%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.7% 100.0% 6.5 0.6 1.2 11.7 18.9 26.0 16.5 7.8 10.5 4.5 2.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.6% 59.0% 10.6 0.7 0.4 2.1 9.9 8.8 20.1 14.8 2.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.9% 46.1% 11.2 0.2 0.4 1.5 3.0 4.5 15.1 17.0 4.1 0.2