Montana St.
Big Sky
2019-20 - 2020-21 - 2021-22
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Overall
Predictive Rating-1.8#182
Expected Predictive Rating+3.1#124
Pace69.1#207
Improvement-2.3#296

Offense
Total Offense-1.8#219
First Shot+0.3#165
After Offensive Rebound-2.2#285
Layup/Dunks-3.9#304
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.4#37
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.7#196
Freethrows+1.6#83
Improvement-2.0#299

Defense
Total Defense+0.0#164
First Shot+2.0#107
After Offensive Rebounds-2.0#295
Layups/Dunks+5.6#19
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.1#295
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.5#155
Freethrows-2.0#291
Improvement-0.3#201
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 28.0% 35.3% 15.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.5 15.4 15.7
.500 or above 85.1% 92.1% 73.3%
.500 or above in Conference 85.1% 92.1% 73.3%
Conference Champion 33.9% 42.1% 19.8%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four8.9% 10.3% 6.4%
First Round24.5% 31.1% 13.0%
Second Round0.9% 1.2% 0.4%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Northern Arizona (Away) - 63.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 20 - 20 - 2
Quad 33 - 33 - 5
Quad 410 - 413 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 25, 2020 114   @ UNLV W 91-78 23%     1 - 0 +18.8 +13.5 +4.6
  Dec 02, 2020 112   @ Pacific L 70-74 OT 23%     1 - 1 +1.9 -2.8 +5.0
  Dec 18, 2020 131   @ Washington St. L 54-82 28%     1 - 2 -23.8 -12.9 -10.8
  Dec 22, 2020 288   @ Portland L 59-62 66%     1 - 3 -9.1 -18.5 +9.6
  Jan 07, 2021 203   @ Northern Colorado W 79-67 48%     2 - 3 1 - 0 +10.8 +5.3 +5.3
  Jan 09, 2021 203   @ Northern Colorado W 76-74 OT 48%     3 - 3 2 - 0 +0.8 +0.2 +0.5
  Jan 14, 2021 283   Portland St. W 71-64 76%     4 - 3 3 - 0 -2.3 -7.3 +4.9
  Jan 16, 2021 283   Portland St. W 69-64 76%     5 - 3 4 - 0 -4.3 -8.4 +4.1
  Jan 21, 2021 297   @ Northern Arizona W 71-66 63%    
  Jan 23, 2021 297   @ Northern Arizona W 71-66 62%    
  Jan 28, 2021 165   @ Montana L 63-66 34%    
  Jan 30, 2021 165   Montana W 65-64 55%    
  Feb 04, 2021 174   @ Weber St. L 70-72 38%    
  Feb 06, 2021 174   @ Weber St. L 70-72 37%    
  Feb 11, 2021 128   Eastern Washington L 73-76 44%    
  Feb 13, 2021 128   Eastern Washington L 73-76 45%    
  Feb 18, 2021 258   Idaho St. W 72-66 74%    
  Feb 20, 2021 258   @ Idaho St. W 70-68 54%    
  Feb 25, 2021 335   @ Idaho W 75-65 79%    
  Feb 27, 2021 335   @ Idaho W 75-65 78%    
  Mar 04, 2021 217   Sacramento St. W 65-61 66%    
  Mar 06, 2021 217   Sacramento St. W 65-61 66%    
Projected Record 13 - 9 12 - 6





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Big Sky Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.2 2.8 7.7 9.8 7.8 3.9 1.5 0.3 33.9 1st
2nd 0.1 2.7 7.8 6.7 2.7 0.6 0.0 20.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.3 6.6 4.9 1.1 0.0 14.0 3rd
4th 0.5 4.7 4.8 0.7 0.0 10.6 4th
5th 0.1 2.4 4.4 0.8 0.0 7.8 5th
6th 0.0 0.9 3.3 1.1 0.0 5.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 1.8 1.4 0.1 3.6 7th
8th 0.1 0.9 1.2 0.2 2.3 8th
9th 0.1 0.5 0.7 0.1 1.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 11th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.7 2.0 4.1 7.8 11.7 15.1 16.3 15.5 12.4 8.4 4.0 1.5 0.3 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2 100.0% 0.3    0.3
17-3 100.0% 1.5    1.5 0.0
16-4 99.1% 3.9    3.8 0.2
15-5 92.4% 7.8    6.6 1.2 0.0
14-6 78.5% 9.8    6.6 2.9 0.3 0.0
13-7 49.4% 7.7    2.9 3.4 1.2 0.1 0.0
12-8 17.3% 2.8    0.3 1.0 1.0 0.4 0.1
11-9 1.6% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
10-10 0.0%
Total 33.9% 33.9 21.9 8.7 2.6 0.6 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2 0.3% 100.0% 100.0% 13.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
17-3 1.5% 99.3% 99.3% 14.4 0.0 0.1 0.7 0.6 0.1 0.0
16-4 4.0% 96.5% 96.5% 15.0 0.1 0.8 2.2 0.8 0.1
15-5 8.4% 84.4% 84.4% 15.4 0.0 0.5 3.3 3.4 1.3
14-6 12.4% 65.9% 65.9% 15.7 0.0 0.1 2.0 6.1 4.2
13-7 15.5% 34.7% 34.7% 15.9 0.0 0.5 4.9 10.1
12-8 16.3% 10.0% 10.0% 16.0 0.0 1.6 14.6
11-9 15.1% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.1 15.0
10-10 11.7% 11.7
9-11 7.8% 7.8
8-12 4.1% 4.1
7-13 2.0% 2.0
6-14 0.7% 0.7
5-15 0.2% 0.2
4-16 0.0% 0.0
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 28.0% 28.0% 0.0% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.3 2.2 8.6 16.8 72.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.3% 100.0% 13.3 1.9 11.3 41.5 43.4 1.9