Morehead St.
Ohio Valley
2019-20 - 2020-21 - 2021-22
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Overall
Predictive Rating-3.3#207
Expected Predictive Rating+0.9#155
Pace65.4#283
Improvement+5.6#3

Offense
Total Offense-4.1#276
First Shot-1.7#214
After Offensive Rebound-2.4#288
Layup/Dunks-2.9#274
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.2#105
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.5#185
Freethrows+0.5#144
Improvement+1.2#76

Defense
Total Defense+0.7#148
First Shot+1.1#130
After Offensive Rebounds-0.4#196
Layups/Dunks+4.6#43
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.1#327
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.1#218
Freethrows+0.7#149
Improvement+4.5#3
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 6.0% 6.6% 4.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.4 15.4 15.6
.500 or above 66.9% 73.5% 42.6%
.500 or above in Conference 88.5% 92.9% 72.2%
Conference Champion 1.8% 2.1% 0.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four1.6% 1.5% 1.8%
First Round5.3% 5.9% 3.3%
Second Round0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Southeast Missouri St. (Home) - 78.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 30 - 5
Quad 32 - 32 - 8
Quad 411 - 414 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 25, 2020 54   @ Kentucky L 45-81 9%     0 - 1 -24.2 -19.1 -6.1
  Nov 27, 2020 53   Richmond L 64-82 10%     0 - 2 -7.6 -9.2 +2.6
  Nov 29, 2020 300   Arkansas St. W 69-61 75%     1 - 2 -2.3 -4.4 +2.6
  Dec 02, 2020 23   @ Ohio St. L 44-77 5%     1 - 3 -17.2 -17.9 -3.6
  Dec 07, 2020 166   @ Eastern Kentucky L 68-71 33%     1 - 4 0 - 1 -1.8 -3.9 +2.1
  Dec 14, 2020 166   Eastern Kentucky W 75-62 45%     2 - 4 1 - 1 +11.0 -1.5 +11.7
  Dec 18, 2020 302   SIU Edwardsville L 65-69 76%     2 - 5 1 - 2 -14.6 -12.3 -2.3
  Dec 21, 2020 25   @ Clemson L 51-66 5%     2 - 6 +0.4 -3.0 +1.1
  Jan 02, 2021 163   @ Murray St. W 61-56 33%     3 - 6 2 - 2 +6.3 -8.9 +15.3
  Jan 07, 2021 308   Tennessee Tech W 57-54 77%     4 - 6 3 - 2 -8.2 -14.6 +6.7
  Jan 09, 2021 202   Jacksonville St. W 56-55 55%     5 - 6 4 - 2 -3.6 -9.6 +6.1
  Jan 14, 2021 224   @ Eastern Illinois W 87-61 47%     6 - 6 5 - 2 +23.3 +13.5 +10.4
  Jan 21, 2021 299   Southeast Missouri St. W 69-62 79%    
  Jan 23, 2021 334   Tennessee Martin W 76-64 89%    
  Jan 28, 2021 202   @ Jacksonville St. L 62-64 39%    
  Jan 30, 2021 308   @ Tennessee Tech W 69-64 61%    
  Feb 04, 2021 163   Murray St. L 65-66 51%    
  Feb 06, 2021 188   Austin Peay W 68-67 56%    
  Feb 11, 2021 286   @ Tennessee St. W 65-62 55%    
  Feb 13, 2021 94   @ Belmont L 65-75 14%    
  Feb 18, 2021 334   @ Tennessee Martin W 74-66 74%    
  Feb 19, 2021 299   @ Southeast Missouri St. W 67-63 59%    
  Feb 25, 2021 286   Tennessee St. W 66-60 75%    
  Feb 27, 2021 94   Belmont L 66-73 31%    
Projected Record 13 - 11 12 - 7





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Ohio Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.6 0.2 1.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 2.5 6.7 7.6 4.3 0.9 0.1 22.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 3.9 9.8 9.5 3.6 0.6 0.0 28.0 3rd
4th 0.3 3.5 9.0 7.3 1.7 0.1 0.0 22.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 2.1 6.1 4.3 0.9 0.0 13.6 5th
6th 0.0 1.2 3.3 2.6 0.5 0.0 7.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 1.4 1.2 0.2 0.0 3.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 12th
Total 0.0 0.2 1.0 3.2 7.1 12.9 18.1 20.5 18.0 11.6 5.6 1.5 0.2 Total



Ohio Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 72.4% 0.2    0.1 0.1
16-4 38.9% 0.6    0.2 0.3 0.0
15-5 12.2% 0.7    0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0
14-6 2.7% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
13-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 1.8% 1.8 0.6 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 0.2% 28.5% 28.5% 13.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
16-4 1.5% 20.9% 20.9% 14.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 1.1
15-5 5.6% 17.6% 17.6% 14.9 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.2 4.6
14-6 11.6% 12.0% 12.0% 15.3 0.0 0.1 0.7 0.6 10.2
13-7 18.0% 7.6% 7.6% 15.6 0.1 0.5 0.8 16.7
12-8 20.5% 5.4% 5.4% 15.8 0.2 0.9 19.4
11-9 18.1% 3.4% 3.4% 15.9 0.1 0.5 17.5
10-10 12.9% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.0 0.2 12.7
9-11 7.1% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 7.1
8-12 3.2% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 3.2
7-13 1.0% 1.0
6-14 0.2% 0.2
5-15 0.0% 0.0
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 6.0% 6.0% 0.0% 15.4 0.0 0.1 0.5 2.2 3.2 94.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 13.3 12.3 47.7 38.5 1.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1%