Morgan St.
Mid-Eastern
2019-20 - 2020-21 - 2021-22
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Overall
Predictive Rating-6.0#257
Expected Predictive Rating-1.6#185
Pace73.9#74
Improvement-1.3#250

Offense
Total Offense-2.1#222
First Shot-3.3#262
After Offensive Rebound+1.3#104
Layup/Dunks-1.7#235
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.3#285
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.3#130
Freethrows-0.6#214
Improvement+0.8#109

Defense
Total Defense-3.9#285
First Shot-1.4#211
After Offensive Rebounds-2.5#316
Layups/Dunks-0.8#199
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.3#35
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.1#178
Freethrows-2.8#313
Improvement-2.0#299
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 20.0% 20.6% 13.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.4 15.4 15.8
.500 or above 95.1% 96.2% 81.2%
.500 or above in Conference 81.4% 84.0% 51.1%
Conference Champion 17.0% 18.0% 5.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four7.3% 7.2% 8.2%
First Round15.7% 16.3% 7.9%
Second Round0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Delaware St. (Home) - 92.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 20 - 00 - 0
Quad 32 - 23 - 2
Quad 410 - 513 - 7


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 25, 2020 234   Mount St. Mary's L 55-62 52%     0 - 1 -13.5 -16.9 +3.1
  Dec 08, 2020 187   @ Iona W 83-72 30%     1 - 1 +10.6 +10.3 +0.3
  Dec 21, 2020 226   @ Delaware W 65-59 36%     2 - 1 +3.7 -5.8 +9.7
  Jan 03, 2021 210   @ James Madison W 80-73 33%     3 - 1 +5.6 -1.4 +6.4
  Jan 09, 2021 248   @ Norfolk St. W 78-74 41%     4 - 1 1 - 0 +0.3 -0.7 +0.8
  Jan 10, 2021 248   @ Norfolk St. L 85-89 41%     4 - 2 1 - 1 -7.7 +2.7 -10.0
  Jan 16, 2021 322   Coppin St. W 92-72 75%     5 - 2 2 - 1 +6.9 +10.8 -5.1
  Jan 17, 2021 322   Coppin St. L 79-89 75%     5 - 3 2 - 2 -23.1 -12.1 -9.1
  Jan 24, 2021 344   Delaware St. W 89-75 92%    
  Jan 30, 2021 322   @ Coppin St. W 80-76 58%    
  Jan 31, 2021 322   @ Coppin St. W 80-76 59%    
  Feb 07, 2021 329   @ Howard W 83-78 63%    
  Feb 08, 2021 329   @ Howard W 83-78 62%    
  Feb 13, 2021 248   Norfolk St. W 73-72 59%    
  Feb 14, 2021 248   Norfolk St. W 73-72 59%    
  Feb 20, 2021 344   @ Delaware St. W 87-77 80%    
  Feb 21, 2021 344   @ Delaware St. W 87-77 80%    
  Mar 03, 2021 344   Delaware St. W 89-75 91%    
Projected Record 12 - 6 9 - 5





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Mid-Eastern Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.5 3.8 7.5 5.1 17.0 1st
2nd 0.1 2.5 9.0 12.5 7.0 0.5 31.6 2nd
3rd 0.1 2.4 8.1 10.0 4.7 0.6 26.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 2.2 6.8 6.5 2.6 0.4 18.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.7 2.2 1.4 0.1 4.6 5th
6th 0.2 1.0 0.6 0.1 1.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 9th
10th 10th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.9 5.2 10.8 17.2 22.1 21.3 15.2 5.6 Total



Mid-Eastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4 90.8% 5.1    3.5 1.4 0.2
11-5 49.6% 7.5    3.3 3.4 0.8 0.1
10-6 18.0% 3.8    0.9 1.9 0.9 0.2
9-7 2.5% 0.5    0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0
8-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
Total 17.0% 17.0 7.7 6.9 2.1 0.3 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4 5.6% 39.8% 39.8% 14.0 0.0 0.5 1.2 0.5 0.0 3.4
11-5 15.2% 30.1% 30.1% 15.1 0.0 0.6 2.7 1.2 10.6
10-6 21.3% 24.9% 24.9% 15.6 0.2 2.0 3.2 16.0
9-7 22.1% 17.1% 17.1% 15.9 0.0 0.5 3.3 18.3
8-8 17.2% 14.0% 14.0% 16.0 0.1 2.3 14.8
7-9 10.8% 11.3% 11.3% 16.0 0.0 1.2 9.6
6-10 5.2% 7.0% 7.0% 16.0 0.4 4.8
5-11 1.9% 5.9% 5.9% 16.0 0.1 1.8
4-12 0.5% 0.5
3-13 0.1% 9.4% 9.4% 16.0 0.0 0.1
2-14 0.0% 0.0
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 20.0% 20.0% 0.0% 15.4 0.0 0.5 2.0 5.8 11.7 80.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 2.2% 100.0% 14.0 0.4 23.0 53.7 22.0 0.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 1.4%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.4%