Mount St. Mary's
Northeast
2019-20 - 2020-21 - 2021-22
Switch to All-time Team Page
Overall
Predictive Rating-4.7#234
Expected Predictive Rating-3.7#215
Pace59.6#345
Improvement-2.3#295

Offense
Total Offense-4.5#284
First Shot-3.5#265
After Offensive Rebound-1.1#235
Layup/Dunks-1.2#220
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.6#254
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.4#126
Freethrows-2.1#301
Improvement-1.8#286

Defense
Total Defense-0.2#174
First Shot-1.6#221
After Offensive Rebounds+1.4#84
Layups/Dunks-4.2#299
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.9#249
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.3#39
Freethrows-0.9#231
Improvement-0.5#224
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 16.4% 18.1% 12.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.2 15.1 15.5
.500 or above 75.6% 82.9% 56.4%
.500 or above in Conference 92.9% 96.4% 83.7%
Conference Champion 51.2% 58.8% 31.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four3.2% 2.8% 4.1%
First Round14.7% 16.5% 10.0%
Second Round0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Wagner (Home) - 72.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 21 - 4
Quad 33 - 43 - 8
Quad 410 - 313 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 25, 2020 257   @ Morgan St. W 62-55 48%     1 - 0 +2.8 -11.5 +14.6
  Nov 28, 2020 172   Navy L 67-73 35%     1 - 1 -6.8 -0.2 -7.2
  Nov 29, 2020 56   @ Maryland L 61-79 7%     1 - 2 -6.1 +2.0 -10.9
  Dec 05, 2020 72   @ Virginia Commonwealth L 42-60 10%     1 - 3 -8.7 -19.2 +8.7
  Dec 08, 2020 237   St. Francis (PA) W 75-57 57%     2 - 3 1 - 0 +11.5 +7.8 +5.8
  Jan 07, 2021 288   @ St. Francis Brooklyn L 55-70 55%     2 - 4 1 - 1 -20.9 -19.6 -1.5
  Jan 08, 2021 288   @ St. Francis Brooklyn L 55-67 55%     2 - 5 1 - 2 -17.9 -18.4 +0.0
  Jan 14, 2021 308   Merrimack W 77-57 74%     3 - 5 2 - 2 +8.8 +0.6 +8.1
  Jan 15, 2021 308   Merrimack W 63-52 74%     4 - 5 3 - 2 -0.2 -7.1 +7.9
  Jan 21, 2021 333   @ Central Connecticut St. W 67-57 75%     5 - 5 4 - 2 -1.8 -4.1 +3.4
  Jan 22, 2021 333   @ Central Connecticut St. W 67-57 75%     6 - 5 5 - 2 -1.8 -4.1 +3.4
  Jan 26, 2021 294   Wagner W 64-59 72%    
  Jan 27, 2021 294   Wagner W 64-59 72%    
  Jan 30, 2021 315   Sacred Heart W 68-60 79%    
  Jan 31, 2021 315   Sacred Heart W 68-60 79%    
  Feb 04, 2021 167   @ Bryant L 67-73 26%    
  Feb 05, 2021 167   @ Bryant L 67-73 26%    
  Feb 11, 2021 222   LIU Brooklyn W 66-65 58%    
  Feb 12, 2021 222   LIU Brooklyn W 66-65 58%    
  Feb 20, 2021 312   @ Fairleigh Dickinson W 69-66 58%    
  Feb 21, 2021 312   @ Fairleigh Dickinson W 69-66 58%    
  Feb 25, 2021 237   @ St. Francis (PA) L 63-65 40%    
Projected Record 12 - 10 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Northeast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 1.0 8.7 16.3 13.5 8.1 3.0 0.5 51.2 1st
2nd 0.2 5.2 9.7 3.5 0.7 0.0 19.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 2.3 6.9 2.3 0.1 11.6 3rd
4th 0.4 4.6 2.9 0.1 8.0 4th
5th 0.1 1.8 2.7 0.2 4.8 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 2.2 0.3 3.0 6th
7th 0.1 0.8 0.6 0.0 1.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 10th
11th 11th
Total 0.1 0.4 1.6 5.0 10.2 16.2 20.8 19.8 14.2 8.1 3.0 0.5 Total



Northeast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 0.5    0.5
15-3 100.0% 3.0    3.0 0.0
14-4 99.6% 8.1    7.8 0.3
13-5 95.0% 13.5    11.7 1.7 0.1
12-6 82.1% 16.3    9.1 6.0 1.1 0.1
11-7 41.9% 8.7    1.8 3.9 2.5 0.5 0.1
10-8 6.4% 1.0    0.0 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0
9-9 0.1% 0.0    0.0
Total 51.2% 51.2 33.9 12.1 4.1 0.9 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 0.5% 41.6% 41.6% 13.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3
15-3 3.0% 33.5% 33.5% 14.0 0.2 0.6 0.2 0.0 2.0
14-4 8.1% 30.3% 30.3% 14.6 0.1 0.9 1.3 0.2 5.7
13-5 14.2% 23.8% 23.8% 15.0 0.0 0.5 2.3 0.6 10.8
12-6 19.8% 19.3% 19.3% 15.4 0.0 0.2 2.0 1.6 16.0
11-7 20.8% 15.0% 15.0% 15.7 0.0 0.9 2.1 17.7
10-8 16.2% 9.1% 9.1% 15.9 0.2 1.3 14.7
9-9 10.2% 6.1% 6.1% 16.0 0.0 0.6 9.6
8-10 5.0% 5.3% 5.3% 16.0 0.3 4.8
7-11 1.6% 4.7% 4.7% 16.0 0.1 1.5
6-12 0.4% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 0.4
5-13 0.1% 0.1
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 16.4% 16.4% 0.0% 15.2 0.0 0.5 2.3 6.9 6.7 83.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 13.3 9.9 52.5 33.2 4.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1%
Lose Out 0.0%