Murray St.
Ohio Valley
2019-20 - 2020-21 - 2021-22
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Overall
Predictive Rating-0.3#163
Expected Predictive Rating-7.9#275
Pace70.0#181
Improvement-1.9#292

Offense
Total Offense-1.6#212
First Shot-2.0#230
After Offensive Rebound+0.5#150
Layup/Dunks+6.4#20
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.1#276
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.4#278
Freethrows-3.0#320
Improvement-3.2#337

Defense
Total Defense+1.3#133
First Shot+1.2#126
After Offensive Rebounds+0.1#172
Layups/Dunks-0.7#197
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.6#224
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.5#62
Freethrows-1.1#243
Improvement+1.2#79
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 10.0% 10.8% 5.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.3 15.2 15.7
.500 or above 70.3% 75.3% 44.8%
.500 or above in Conference 64.9% 70.2% 38.0%
Conference Champion 0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.3% 0.1% 1.6%
First Four2.9% 2.8% 3.1%
First Round9.0% 9.8% 5.0%
Second Round0.5% 0.5% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Tennessee Martin (Away) - 83.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 20 - 10 - 1
Quad 32 - 42 - 5
Quad 411 - 512 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Dec 02, 2020 210   @ Middle Tennessee L 61-78 56%     0 - 1 -18.8 -9.8 -8.4
  Dec 05, 2020 233   Illinois St. W 76-65 72%     1 - 1 +4.7 -3.1 +7.5
  Dec 08, 2020 188   Austin Peay W 87-57 63%     2 - 1 1 - 0 +26.3 +17.2 +11.3
  Dec 11, 2020 170   @ Southern Illinois L 66-70 46%     2 - 2 -3.3 -8.0 +4.8
  Dec 21, 2020 188   @ Austin Peay L 70-74 51%     2 - 3 1 - 1 -4.5 -1.8 -2.8
  Dec 30, 2020 94   @ Belmont L 55-68 25%     2 - 4 1 - 2 -6.2 -11.9 +4.8
  Jan 02, 2021 207   Morehead St. L 56-61 67%     2 - 5 1 - 3 -9.9 -16.1 +6.1
  Jan 07, 2021 224   @ Eastern Illinois L 68-74 59%     2 - 6 1 - 4 -8.7 -9.5 +1.1
  Jan 16, 2021 334   @ Tennessee Martin W 79-68 83%    
  Jan 21, 2021 202   Jacksonville St. W 68-64 71%    
  Jan 23, 2021 308   Tennessee Tech W 75-64 87%    
  Jan 28, 2021 286   Tennessee St. W 71-62 84%    
  Jan 30, 2021 94   Belmont L 72-76 41%    
  Feb 04, 2021 207   @ Morehead St. W 66-65 49%    
  Feb 06, 2021 166   @ Eastern Kentucky L 73-74 39%    
  Feb 11, 2021 299   Southeast Missouri St. W 74-64 85%    
  Feb 13, 2021 334   Tennessee Martin W 81-66 92%    
  Feb 18, 2021 224   Eastern Illinois W 74-68 74%    
  Feb 20, 2021 302   SIU Edwardsville W 74-64 85%    
  Feb 25, 2021 202   @ Jacksonville St. W 66-65 49%    
  Feb 27, 2021 308   @ Tennessee Tech W 74-66 71%    
Projected Record 11 - 10 10 - 8





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Ohio Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 1.7 3.2 1.6 6.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 3.3 6.0 3.5 0.4 13.5 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 4.0 8.7 5.9 0.9 0.0 19.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 4.2 9.7 6.8 1.0 0.0 22.2 5th
6th 0.5 3.3 8.1 5.6 1.0 0.0 18.5 6th
7th 0.2 2.2 4.8 3.4 0.6 0.0 11.1 7th
8th 0.1 0.9 2.3 1.3 0.1 4.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.4 1.0 0.6 0.1 2.0 9th
10th 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.7 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 12th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.9 2.4 5.6 9.8 16.0 20.3 20.2 14.7 7.6 2.1 Total



Ohio Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 6.6% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.2% 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 2.1% 34.8% 34.8% 13.6 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.1 1.4
13-7 7.6% 26.7% 26.7% 14.6 0.1 0.7 0.9 0.2 5.6
12-8 14.7% 16.8% 16.8% 15.3 0.2 1.3 1.0 12.2
11-9 20.2% 10.6% 10.6% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.7 1.4 18.0
10-10 20.3% 7.4% 7.4% 15.9 0.1 1.4 18.8
9-11 16.0% 4.5% 4.5% 16.0 0.0 0.7 15.3
8-12 9.8% 3.1% 3.1% 16.0 0.3 9.5
7-13 5.6% 1.9% 1.9% 16.0 0.1 5.5
6-14 2.4% 2.4
5-15 0.9% 0.9
4-16 0.3% 0.3
3-17 0.0% 0.0
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 10.0% 10.0% 0.0% 15.3 0.0 0.5 1.3 3.1 5.1 90.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.7% 100.0% 13.6 3.8 41.9 43.4 10.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.6%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.6%