N.C. A&T
Mid-Eastern
2019-20 - 2020-21 - 2021-22
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Overall
Predictive Rating-10.4#315
Expected Predictive Rating-10.3#299
Pace77.7#33
Improvement+0.0#189

Offense
Total Offense-4.9#292
First Shot-1.9#228
After Offensive Rebound-3.0#309
Layup/Dunks-2.4#259
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.9#77
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.0#239
Freethrows+0.6#143
Improvement+3.0#23

Defense
Total Defense-5.5#311
First Shot-2.5#253
After Offensive Rebounds-3.0#323
Layups/Dunks-2.7#258
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.0#43
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.5#301
Freethrows+1.7#84
Improvement-3.1#326
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 5.1% 7.8% 4.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 5.7% 17.0% 2.8%
.500 or above in Conference 9.5% 28.1% 4.6%
Conference Champion 0.8% 3.0% 0.3%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four5.1% 7.7% 4.4%
First Round1.9% 2.6% 1.7%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: NC Central (Away) - 20.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 30 - 60 - 10
Quad 48 - 58 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 25, 2020 8   @ Illinois L 60-122 1%     0 - 1 -43.4 -13.7 -21.1
  Nov 26, 2020 130   Ohio L 72-84 12%     0 - 2 -9.5 -13.0 +5.0
  Nov 27, 2020 347   Chicago St. W 74-44 83%     1 - 2 +9.3 -0.6 +11.2
  Dec 01, 2020 336   @ Charleston Southern W 70-63 56%     2 - 2 -4.9 -9.5 +4.3
  Dec 03, 2020 269   @ The Citadel L 70-78 30%     2 - 3 -12.9 -17.9 +5.8
  Dec 06, 2020 52   Stanford L 46-78 5%     2 - 4 -23.3 -22.8 +0.9
  Dec 08, 2020 304   @ Longwood L 60-77 38%     2 - 5 -24.1 -14.8 -9.6
  Dec 09, 2020 70   @ Virginia Commonwealth L 59-95 4%     2 - 6 -26.1 -10.4 -13.2
  Dec 12, 2020 180   Western Carolina L 98-104 OT 25%     2 - 7 -9.3 +5.4 -13.7
  Dec 19, 2020 162   @ Charlotte L 72-76 13%     2 - 8 -2.2 +7.2 -9.7
  Dec 22, 2020 122   UNC Greensboro L 65-86 13%     2 - 9 -19.3 -10.6 -6.8
  Jan 02, 2021 345   @ South Carolina St. W 97-86 76%     3 - 9 1 - 0 -6.7 +12.5 -19.7
  Jan 03, 2021 345   @ South Carolina St. W 73-66 76%     4 - 9 2 - 0 -10.7 -15.8 +4.3
  Jan 23, 2021 235   @ NC Central L 69-77 21%    
  Jan 24, 2021 235   @ NC Central L 69-77 21%    
  Feb 06, 2021 345   South Carolina St. W 82-71 87%    
  Feb 07, 2021 345   South Carolina St. W 82-71 87%    
  Feb 20, 2021 285   @ Florida A&M L 72-77 29%    
  Feb 21, 2021 285   @ Florida A&M L 72-77 29%    
  Feb 27, 2021 235   NC Central L 71-75 40%    
  Feb 28, 2021 235   NC Central L 71-75 40%    
Projected Record 8 - 13 6 - 4





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Mid-Eastern Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.8 1st
2nd 0.3 4.0 5.2 1.8 0.3 11.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.1 7.1 8.4 1.4 18.0 3rd
4th 0.0 2.2 12.9 14.3 3.0 32.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.8 9.3 10.8 2.1 23.0 5th
6th 0.1 2.8 6.4 1.8 0.1 11.2 6th
7th 0.3 1.5 0.8 0.1 2.7 7th
8th 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.0 9th
10th 10th
Total 0.7 5.2 18.8 26.6 23.9 15.4 6.9 2.1 0.4 Total



Mid-Eastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5
10-6 25.3% 0.1    0.1 0.0
9-7 15.7% 0.3    0.2 0.2 0.0
8-8 4.8% 0.3    0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
Total 0.8% 0.8 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5
10-6 0.4% 20.0% 20.0% 15.9 0.0 0.1 0.3
9-7 2.1% 11.7% 11.7% 16.0 0.3 1.9
8-8 6.9% 11.4% 11.4% 16.0 0.8 6.2
7-9 15.4% 8.4% 8.4% 16.0 1.3 14.1
6-10 23.9% 5.7% 5.7% 16.0 1.4 22.5
5-11 26.6% 3.7% 3.7% 16.0 1.0 25.7
4-12 18.8% 1.6% 1.6% 16.0 0.3 18.5
3-13 5.2% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 5.1
2-14 0.7% 0.7
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 5.1% 5.1% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 5.1 94.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2%
Lose Out 0.3%