NC Central
Mid-Eastern
2019-20 - 2020-21 - 2021-22
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Overall
Predictive Rating-4.7#229
Expected Predictive Rating-1.5#183
Pace66.5#260
Improvement+0.6#142

Offense
Total Offense-2.5#233
First Shot+0.7#159
After Offensive Rebound-3.2#319
Layup/Dunks+3.4#58
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.2#184
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.3#302
Freethrows+1.8#68
Improvement-0.6#217

Defense
Total Defense-2.2#233
First Shot+0.2#171
After Offensive Rebounds-2.4#312
Layups/Dunks+0.1#173
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#110
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.6#79
Freethrows-3.3#324
Improvement+1.2#100
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 25.0% 27.0% 17.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.6 15.5 16.0
.500 or above 83.8% 89.4% 62.5%
.500 or above in Conference 65.0% 72.5% 36.4%
Conference Champion 5.8% 7.1% 0.5%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four13.6% 13.1% 15.2%
First Round17.9% 20.4% 8.2%
Second Round0.5% 0.6% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: N.C. A&T (Home) - 79.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 16 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 10 - 3
Quad 31 - 11 - 4
Quad 410 - 310 - 7


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 25, 2020 4   @ Iowa L 67-97 2%     0 - 1 -9.6 -0.7 -9.3
  Nov 26, 2020 258   Southern W 85-78 OT 55%     1 - 1 +1.1 +1.6 -1.3
  Dec 07, 2020 146   @ Coastal Carolina L 71-78 23%     1 - 2 -3.9 -8.0 +4.6
  Dec 12, 2020 35   @ North Carolina L 67-73 5%     1 - 3 +7.8 +0.8 +7.1
  Jan 24, 2021 315   N.C. A&T W 77-69 79%    
  Feb 02, 2021 329   @ Howard W 78-72 66%    
  Feb 06, 2021 277   Florida A&M W 70-65 69%    
  Feb 07, 2021 277   Florida A&M W 70-65 69%    
  Feb 13, 2021 345   South Carolina St. W 79-62 95%    
  Feb 14, 2021 345   South Carolina St. W 79-62 95%    
  Feb 20, 2021 345   @ South Carolina St. W 77-64 85%    
  Feb 21, 2021 345   @ South Carolina St. W 77-64 86%    
  Feb 22, 2021 277   @ Florida A&M W 68-67 49%    
  Feb 27, 2021 315   @ N.C. A&T W 75-71 58%    
  Feb 28, 2021 315   @ N.C. A&T W 75-71 57%    
Projected Record 9 - 6 8 - 3





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Mid-Eastern Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.2 2.2 3.4 5.8 1st
2nd 0.4 2.1 7.6 11.2 4.6 25.9 2nd
3rd 0.3 4.2 11.6 10.2 3.7 0.4 30.5 3rd
4th 0.0 2.6 8.9 5.8 1.8 0.0 19.2 4th
5th 0.0 1.2 5.5 1.9 0.1 8.6 5th
6th 0.1 0.9 3.1 1.7 0.0 5.8 6th
7th 0.5 1.6 1.4 0.0 3.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.5 8th
9th 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 9th
10th 10th
Total 0.2 0.3 0.8 2.7 5.7 10.1 15.4 19.6 19.7 17.2 8.5 Total



Mid-Eastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5 40.3% 3.4    1.3 1.6 0.4 0.1
10-6 12.6% 2.2    0.2 1.1 0.8 0.1
9-7 0.9% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1
8-8 0.0%
Total 5.8% 5.8 1.6 2.7 1.3 0.2



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5 8.5% 57.8% 57.8% 14.5 0.2 2.2 2.3 0.2 3.6
10-6 17.2% 37.1% 37.1% 15.7 0.1 1.9 4.4 10.8
9-7 19.7% 28.4% 28.4% 15.9 0.4 5.2 14.1
8-8 19.6% 20.8% 20.8% 16.0 4.1 15.6
7-9 15.4% 15.0% 15.0% 16.0 2.3 13.1
6-10 10.1% 13.0% 13.0% 16.0 1.3 8.7
5-11 5.7% 6.9% 6.9% 16.0 0.4 5.3
4-12 2.7% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.0 2.6
3-13 0.8% 0.8
2-14 0.3% 0.3
1-15 0.2% 0.2
0-16
Total 100% 25.0% 25.0% 0.0% 15.6 0.2 2.2 4.6 17.9 75.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 4.9% 100.0% 14.5 4.9 44.0 46.7 4.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 1.3%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.5%