New Mexico St.
Western Athletic
2019-20 - 2020-21 - 2021-22
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Overall
Predictive Rating+3.3#124
Expected Predictive Rating-18.8#338
Pace64.2#305
Improvement+0.0#173

Offense
Total Offense+0.0#170
First Shot+15.8#1
After Offensive Rebound-15.8#348
Layup/Dunks+8.5#4
2 Pt Jumpshots-8.9#348
3 Pt Jumpshots+15.4#1
Freethrows+0.9#119
Improvement-0.5#199

Defense
Total Defense+3.3#92
First Shot+2.1#108
After Offensive Rebounds+1.2#88
Layups/Dunks+0.4#167
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.6#23
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.3#130
Freethrows-2.2#300
Improvement+0.5#146
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 42.1% 52.1% 33.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.4 13.8 15.1
.500 or above 92.3% 98.1% 87.4%
.500 or above in Conference 54.3% 77.0% 34.9%
Conference Champion 9.8% 20.2% 1.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four5.7% 3.2% 7.7%
First Round40.3% 51.0% 31.1%
Second Round5.9% 9.3% 3.1%
Sweet Sixteen1.8% 2.9% 0.8%
Elite Eight0.4% 0.6% 0.2%
Final Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Grand Canyon (Away) - 46.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 16 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 20 - 10 - 1
Quad 32 - 12 - 2
Quad 49 - 211 - 4


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Dec 28, 2020 299   @ Cal St. Northridge L 63-66 84%     0 - 1 -10.1 -21.4 +11.5
  Jan 29, 2021 141   @ Grand Canyon W 66-65 46%    
  Jan 30, 2021 141   @ Grand Canyon W 66-65 46%    
  Feb 05, 2021 255   California Baptist W 75-64 87%    
  Feb 06, 2021 255   California Baptist W 75-64 86%    
  Feb 12, 2021 260   @ Seattle W 71-63 72%    
  Feb 13, 2021 260   @ Seattle W 71-63 72%    
  Feb 19, 2021 233   Utah Valley W 73-63 83%    
  Feb 20, 2021 233   Utah Valley W 73-63 83%    
  Feb 26, 2021 326   @ Tarleton St. W 74-60 86%    
  Feb 27, 2021 326   @ Tarleton St. W 74-60 85%    
  Mar 05, 2021 340   @ Dixie St. W 72-56 90%    
  Mar 06, 2021 340   @ Dixie St. W 72-56 90%    
Projected Record 9 - 4 7 - 3




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Western Athletic Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.1 2.8 6.9 9.8 1st
2nd 0.0 1.0 7.7 14.2 4.0 26.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.1 8.1 12.5 3.6 0.0 25.4 3rd
4th 0.1 1.2 6.7 8.8 2.3 0.0 19.1 4th
5th 0.1 1.6 4.9 4.9 1.2 0.0 12.7 5th
6th 0.1 1.0 2.0 1.3 0.2 4.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.2 0.0 1.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.7 3.8 7.3 13.0 19.1 22.7 20.6 11.0 Total



Western Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5
10-6 63.0% 6.9    2.7 3.6 0.6
9-7 13.6% 2.8    0.3 1.1 1.1 0.3 0.0
8-8 0.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0
Total 9.8% 9.8 3.0 4.7 1.8 0.3 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

With games being cancelled frequently this season, the conference records below may not be accurate. The number of wins in the table below are based on games that are currently scheduled and appear in the schedule above.
Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5
10-6 11.0% 71.5% 71.5% 0.0% 12.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 1.0 2.1 2.6 0.9 0.2 0.0 3.1 0.1%
9-7 20.6% 60.5% 60.5% 14.2 0.0 0.1 2.3 6.2 3.4 0.5 8.1
8-8 22.7% 46.3% 46.3% 15.0 0.0 0.2 2.2 5.2 2.9 12.2
7-9 19.1% 34.5% 34.5% 15.6 0.0 0.3 2.2 4.1 12.5
6-10 13.0% 23.5% 23.5% 15.9 0.0 0.4 2.6 9.9
5-11 7.3% 15.8% 15.8% 16.0 0.0 1.1 6.2
4-12 3.8% 9.6% 9.6% 16.0 0.0 0.4 3.5
3-13 1.7% 5.6% 5.6% 16.0 0.1 1.6
2-14 0.5% 4.0% 4.0% 16.0 0.0 0.5
1-15 0.1% 2.0% 2.0% 16.0 0.0 0.1
0-16 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 42.1% 42.1% 0.0% 14.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 1.0 2.2 5.1 9.6 11.3 11.8 57.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 7.4% 100.0% 11.9 0.0 0.4 1.0 1.4 2.2 4.0 5.7 13.8 27.8 34.6 8.8 0.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 1.5% 0.1% 12.0 0.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.2%