New Mexico
Mountain West
2019-20 - 2020-21 - 2021-22
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Overall
Predictive Rating-5.1#242
Expected Predictive Rating-1.4#183
Pace67.3#248
Improvement-1.5#269

Offense
Total Offense-1.7#216
First Shot-5.4#300
After Offensive Rebound+3.8#22
Layup/Dunks-1.7#237
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.6#87
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.5#318
Freethrows+0.2#169
Improvement-0.5#222

Defense
Total Defense-3.4#273
First Shot-3.9#298
After Offensive Rebounds+0.4#153
Layups/Dunks-3.3#270
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.5#29
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.0#251
Freethrows-1.1#242
Improvement-1.0#258
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.1 14.5 15.5
.500 or above 1.4% 5.6% 0.7%
.500 or above in Conference 1.2% 4.8% 0.6%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 18.2% 7.0% 20.1%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: UNLV (Away) - 14.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b0 - 30 - 5
Quad 20 - 30 - 9
Quad 32 - 52 - 14
Quad 45 - 37 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Dec 13, 2020 197   @ Rice W 72-61 35%     1 - 0 +9.8 -1.3 +11.3
  Dec 21, 2020 40   @ Boise St. L 53-77 6%     1 - 1 0 - 1 -11.1 -11.2 -1.2
  Dec 23, 2020 40   @ Boise St. L 52-89 6%     1 - 2 0 - 2 -24.1 -15.7 -8.1
  Dec 31, 2020 107   Nevada L 54-68 19%     1 - 3 0 - 3 -9.8 -18.5 +9.1
  Jan 02, 2021 107   Nevada L 74-84 19%     1 - 4 0 - 4 -5.8 +11.6 -18.5
  Jan 06, 2021 39   Utah St. L 45-77 7%     1 - 5 0 - 5 -20.6 -18.8 -1.2
  Jan 08, 2021 39   Utah St. L 46-82 7%     1 - 6 0 - 6 -24.6 -17.3 -7.0
  Jan 13, 2021 330   @ Dixie St. W 72-63 72%     2 - 6 -2.3 +1.7 -3.6
  Jan 14, 2021 123   @ UNLV L 67-77 14%    
  Jan 16, 2021 123   @ UNLV L 67-77 15%    
  Jan 18, 2021 123   @ UNLV L 67-77 15%    
  Jan 21, 2021 323   San Jose St. W 83-75 80%    
  Jan 23, 2021 323   San Jose St. W 83-75 80%    
  Jan 28, 2021 168   @ Fresno St. L 64-70 24%    
  Jan 30, 2021 168   @ Fresno St. L 64-70 25%    
  Feb 03, 2021 41   San Diego St. L 58-73 11%    
  Feb 05, 2021 41   San Diego St. L 58-73 11%    
  Feb 11, 2021 70   @ Colorado St. L 64-79 7%    
  Feb 13, 2021 70   @ Colorado St. L 64-79 7%    
  Feb 17, 2021 194   Wyoming L 74-75 51%    
  Feb 19, 2021 194   Wyoming L 74-75 52%    
  Feb 22, 2021 253   @ Air Force L 65-66 41%    
  Feb 24, 2021 253   @ Air Force L 65-66 41%    
Projected Record 7 - 16 5 - 16




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.6 1.6 1.5 0.6 0.1 0.0 4.4 6th
7th 0.1 2.0 4.6 2.6 0.7 0.1 10.1 7th
8th 0.2 3.8 8.0 3.9 0.7 0.0 16.6 8th
9th 0.9 7.3 11.2 4.9 0.6 0.0 24.9 9th
10th 0.3 4.4 12.2 12.1 4.3 0.4 0.0 33.8 10th
11th 0.5 2.8 4.1 2.2 0.3 0.0 9.9 11th
Total 0.5 3.1 8.5 15.4 19.8 19.4 15.3 9.7 4.9 2.3 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 0.0%
14-6 0.0%
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 0.0% 0.0
14-6 0.0% 0.0
13-7 0.0% 0.0
12-8 0.0% 0.0
11-9 0.2% 3.2% 3.2% 14.0 0.0 0.2
10-10 0.9% 0.9% 0.9% 15.0 0.0 0.9
9-11 2.3% 0.3% 0.3% 15.0 0.0 2.3
8-12 4.9% 4.9
7-13 9.7% 9.7
6-14 15.3% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 15.3
5-15 19.4% 19.4
4-16 19.8% 19.8
3-17 15.4% 15.4
2-18 8.5% 8.5
1-19 3.1% 3.1
0-20 0.5% 0.5
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 15.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.4%