New Orleans
Southland
2019-20 - 2020-21 - 2021-22
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Overall
Predictive Rating-8.8#303
Expected Predictive Rating-13.8#325
Pace73.5#81
Improvement+2.6#44

Offense
Total Offense-3.1#253
First Shot-1.2#202
After Offensive Rebound-1.9#274
Layup/Dunks+3.3#62
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.4#61
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.4#318
Freethrows-1.4#267
Improvement+3.4#14

Defense
Total Defense-5.7#314
First Shot-4.2#299
After Offensive Rebounds-1.5#265
Layups/Dunks-4.4#302
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.4#89
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.6#119
Freethrows-2.8#312
Improvement-0.8#231
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.0% 1.2% 0.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 4.8% 6.9% 0.9%
.500 or above in Conference 57.5% 68.7% 37.4%
Conference Champion 0.3% 0.5% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 2.6% 1.0% 5.5%
First Four0.9% 1.1% 0.5%
First Round0.5% 0.6% 0.3%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: TX A&M Corpus Christi (Home) - 64.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 10 - 2
Quad 30 - 40 - 6
Quad 48 - 108 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 26, 2020 40   @ BYU L 61-86 3%     0 - 1 -12.0 -10.0 -0.1
  Nov 29, 2020 120   @ Texas A&M L 53-82 10%     0 - 2 -23.6 -16.1 -6.6
  Dec 02, 2020 167   Louisiana L 63-66 27%     0 - 3 -5.6 -14.0 +8.7
  Dec 09, 2020 270   Campbell L 70-79 41%     0 - 4 -15.6 -6.8 -8.7
  Dec 10, 2020 291   @ Jacksonville L 70-77 39%     0 - 5 -13.1 -5.3 -7.7
  Dec 15, 2020 167   @ Louisiana L 63-73 18%     0 - 6 -9.1 -13.6 +5.6
  Dec 21, 2020 186   @ Rice L 62-73 21%     0 - 7 -11.5 -7.7 -4.5
  Jan 02, 2021 160   @ Stephen F. Austin L 67-78 16%     0 - 8 0 - 1 -9.2 -7.7 -0.9
  Jan 06, 2021 284   @ Central Arkansas L 79-83 38%     0 - 9 0 - 2 -9.8 -1.1 -8.7
  Jan 09, 2021 323   Incarnate Word W 86-64 68%     1 - 9 1 - 2 +8.4 +6.8 +2.0
  Jan 16, 2021 340   McNeese St. W 99-84 77%     2 - 9 2 - 2 -1.4 +4.1 -7.2
  Jan 20, 2021 312   TX A&M Corpus Christi W 72-69 64%    
  Jan 23, 2021 192   @ Nicholls St. L 71-79 19%    
  Jan 27, 2021 320   @ Northwestern St. W 79-78 47%    
  Jan 30, 2021 321   @ SE Louisiana W 76-75 48%    
  Feb 06, 2021 160   Stephen F. Austin L 73-80 29%    
  Feb 10, 2021 284   Central Arkansas W 82-81 56%    
  Feb 13, 2021 323   @ Incarnate Word W 73-72 49%    
  Feb 20, 2021 340   @ McNeese St. W 80-76 60%    
  Feb 24, 2021 312   @ TX A&M Corpus Christi L 70-71 43%    
  Feb 27, 2021 192   Nicholls St. L 73-78 38%    
  Mar 03, 2021 320   Northwestern St. W 80-76 68%    
  Mar 06, 2021 321   SE Louisiana W 77-73 70%    
Projected Record 8 - 15 8 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southland Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.1 0.6 0.1 2.2 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.2 2.4 1.4 0.1 0.0 5.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 3.0 5.5 2.7 0.2 11.8 4th
5th 0.0 1.1 7.5 10.6 5.4 0.8 0.0 25.5 5th
6th 0.4 5.2 7.9 2.6 0.2 16.3 6th
7th 0.0 2.1 7.0 2.5 0.1 11.8 7th
8th 0.3 4.8 3.3 0.3 0.0 8.6 8th
9th 0.0 1.9 4.2 0.5 6.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.4 3.4 1.2 0.0 5.0 10th
11th 0.1 1.5 1.7 0.1 3.4 11th
12th 0.0 0.7 1.4 0.3 2.4 12th
13th 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.7 13th
Total 0.2 1.2 3.5 7.7 12.7 17.2 18.5 16.4 12.4 6.5 2.8 0.8 0.1 Total



Southland Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2 36.8% 0.0    0.0 0.0
13-3 21.6% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
12-4 4.1% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-5 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-6 0.0%
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 0.3% 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.1
13-3 0.8% 8.6% 8.6% 16.0 0.1 0.7
12-4 2.8% 5.9% 5.9% 16.0 0.2 2.7
11-5 6.5% 2.9% 2.9% 16.0 0.2 6.3
10-6 12.4% 2.0% 2.0% 16.0 0.2 12.2
9-7 16.4% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.1 16.3
8-8 18.5% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.1 18.4
7-9 17.2% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 17.2
6-10 12.7% 12.7
5-11 7.7% 7.7
4-12 3.5% 3.5
3-13 1.2% 1.2
2-14 0.2% 0.2
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 0.9 99.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.2%