Nicholls St.
Southland
2019-20 - 2020-21 - 2021-22
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Overall
Predictive Rating-2.4#192
Expected Predictive Rating-1.0#176
Pace71.7#122
Improvement+0.1#171

Offense
Total Offense-1.0#194
First Shot-1.3#206
After Offensive Rebound+0.3#158
Layup/Dunks+3.9#53
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.7#205
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.8#198
Freethrows-3.6#333
Improvement+1.6#71

Defense
Total Defense-1.4#213
First Shot-1.0#199
After Offensive Rebounds-0.4#203
Layups/Dunks+1.1#147
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.6#230
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.3#188
Freethrows-1.2#253
Improvement-1.5#276
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 13.4% 14.6% 9.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.7 15.6 15.9
.500 or above 96.4% 98.4% 90.3%
.500 or above in Conference 99.5% 99.9% 98.5%
Conference Champion 19.3% 23.3% 6.9%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four6.8% 6.8% 6.9%
First Round10.6% 11.9% 6.7%
Second Round0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Houston Baptist (Away) - 75.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 10 - 3
Quad 31 - 21 - 5
Quad 414 - 315 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 25, 2020 199   UC Davis W 101-93 52%     1 - 0 +5.2 +10.8 -6.8
  Nov 27, 2020 258   Idaho St. W 70-51 64%     2 - 0 +13.0 -10.6 +22.5
  Nov 28, 2020 147   @ Santa Clara L 57-73 32%     2 - 1 -13.4 -13.6 +0.9
  Nov 30, 2020 150   @ California L 49-60 32%     2 - 2 -8.5 -22.6 +13.9
  Dec 01, 2020 85   @ St. Mary's L 50-73 16%     2 - 3 -14.6 -12.2 -4.7
  Dec 26, 2020 23   @ LSU L 80-86 5%     2 - 4 +9.9 +6.3 +4.0
  Jan 02, 2021 183   Sam Houston St. L 81-84 55%     2 - 5 0 - 1 -6.6 -0.9 -5.5
  Jan 06, 2021 306   Lamar W 76-69 79%     3 - 5 1 - 1 -4.0 +2.9 -6.6
  Jan 09, 2021 321   SE Louisiana W 87-67 84%     4 - 5 2 - 1 +6.9 +5.8 +0.5
  Jan 13, 2021 320   @ Northwestern St. W 76-66 75%     5 - 5 3 - 1 +0.7 -7.9 +7.8
  Jan 16, 2021 284   @ Central Arkansas W 74-72 63%     6 - 5 4 - 1 -3.8 -3.8 +0.0
  Jan 20, 2021 330   @ Houston Baptist W 84-75 76%    
  Jan 23, 2021 303   New Orleans W 79-71 81%    
  Jan 27, 2021 340   McNeese St. W 83-69 92%    
  Feb 06, 2021 183   @ Sam Houston St. L 75-77 37%    
  Feb 10, 2021 306   @ Lamar W 74-69 63%    
  Feb 13, 2021 321   @ SE Louisiana W 77-70 71%    
  Feb 17, 2021 320   Northwestern St. W 81-71 86%    
  Feb 20, 2021 284   Central Arkansas W 83-76 78%    
  Feb 24, 2021 330   Houston Baptist W 86-74 89%    
  Feb 27, 2021 303   @ New Orleans W 78-73 62%    
  Mar 03, 2021 340   @ McNeese St. W 82-71 79%    
Projected Record 14 - 8 12 - 4




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southland Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.8 4.9 8.9 4.6 19.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 2.1 9.2 14.4 6.9 0.6 33.4 2nd
3rd 0.2 2.7 8.9 11.5 4.1 0.2 27.6 3rd
4th 0.1 1.8 5.2 5.1 1.6 0.0 13.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.6 1.8 1.3 0.2 0.0 3.9 5th
6th 0.1 0.6 0.4 0.1 1.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.5 4.3 9.6 16.4 23.1 23.4 15.9 5.3 Total



Southland Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1 87.8% 4.6    3.0 1.6 0.0
14-2 55.5% 8.9    3.4 4.3 1.1 0.0
13-3 21.1% 4.9    1.0 2.2 1.5 0.2
12-4 3.6% 0.8    0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0
11-5 0.3% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-6 0.0%
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 19.3% 19.3 7.4 8.5 3.0 0.4 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1 5.3% 29.6% 29.6% 14.6 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.8 0.1 3.7
14-2 15.9% 21.6% 21.6% 15.6 0.1 1.3 2.0 12.5
13-3 23.4% 16.6% 16.6% 15.9 0.0 0.5 3.4 19.5
12-4 23.1% 12.0% 12.0% 16.0 0.1 2.7 20.3
11-5 16.4% 7.3% 7.3% 16.0 1.2 15.2
10-6 9.6% 4.5% 4.5% 16.0 0.4 9.1
9-7 4.3% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.1 4.3
8-8 1.5% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.0 1.5
7-9 0.4% 0.4
6-10 0.1% 0.1
5-11 0.0% 0.0
4-12
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 13.4% 13.4% 0.0% 15.7 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.7 9.9 86.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.6% 100.0% 14.6 0.3 6.1 35.6 51.3 6.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 2.1%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.6%