Norfolk St.
Mid-Eastern
2019-20 - 2020-21 - 2021-22
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Overall
Predictive Rating-6.4#266
Expected Predictive Rating-3.7#219
Pace69.0#205
Improvement-3.2#319

Offense
Total Offense-3.6#263
First Shot-0.8#198
After Offensive Rebound-2.8#308
Layup/Dunks-4.9#319
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.1#43
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.5#184
Freethrows+1.4#82
Improvement-1.6#274

Defense
Total Defense-2.8#250
First Shot+0.2#168
After Offensive Rebounds-2.9#332
Layups/Dunks+1.2#146
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.6#5
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.9#245
Freethrows-2.8#312
Improvement-1.6#280
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 22.7% 25.7% 19.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.8 15.7 15.9
.500 or above 95.3% 98.5% 91.6%
.500 or above in Conference 94.2% 98.0% 89.8%
Conference Champion 57.0% 72.6% 38.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four14.1% 13.6% 14.6%
First Round14.4% 18.0% 10.1%
Second Round0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Coppin St. (Away) - 54.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 21 - 11 - 1
Quad 33 - 33 - 4
Quad 412 - 616 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 27, 2020 210   @ James Madison W 83-73 32%     1 - 0 +8.4 +8.7 -0.2
  Nov 28, 2020 224   Radford W 57-54 42%     2 - 0 -1.2 -14.4 +13.3
  Dec 02, 2020 158   Old Dominion L 66-80 32%     2 - 1 -15.6 -7.2 -8.1
  Dec 07, 2020 309   Hampton W 76-64 69%     3 - 1 +0.5 +0.3 +0.6
  Dec 13, 2020 112   @ UNC Greensboro L 47-64 13%     3 - 2 -11.1 -20.1 +8.6
  Dec 18, 2020 195   UNC Wilmington L 72-80 43%     3 - 3 -12.6 -1.6 -11.2
  Dec 26, 2020 144   @ George Mason W 68-65 19%     4 - 3 +6.0 -1.9 +7.9
  Jan 09, 2021 259   Morgan St. L 74-78 56%     4 - 4 0 - 1 -11.8 -7.6 -4.1
  Jan 10, 2021 259   Morgan St. W 89-85 56%     5 - 4 1 - 1 -3.8 +3.2 -7.4
  Jan 16, 2021 344   @ Delaware St. W 87-76 83%     6 - 4 2 - 1 -5.3 +6.6 -11.6
  Jan 17, 2021 344   @ Delaware St. W 83-79 OT 83%     7 - 4 3 - 1 -12.3 -11.0 -1.8
  Jan 23, 2021 316   @ Coppin St. L 71-81 59%     7 - 5 3 - 2 -18.6 -17.1 +0.6
  Jan 24, 2021 316   @ Coppin St. W 75-73 54%    
  Jan 30, 2021 344   Delaware St. W 84-70 91%    
  Jan 31, 2021 344   Delaware St. W 84-70 92%    
  Feb 06, 2021 316   Coppin St. W 77-71 74%    
  Feb 07, 2021 316   Coppin St. W 77-71 75%    
  Feb 13, 2021 259   @ Morgan St. L 72-74 38%    
  Feb 14, 2021 259   @ Morgan St. L 72-74 38%    
  Feb 17, 2021 327   Howard W 80-72 80%    
  Feb 18, 2021 327   Howard W 80-72 79%    
  Feb 27, 2021 327   @ Howard W 78-74 61%    
  Feb 28, 2021 327   @ Howard W 78-74 61%    
Projected Record 14 - 9 10 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-Eastern Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.6 8.6 18.2 17.0 9.1 2.5 57.0 1st
2nd 0.1 1.2 7.3 9.8 4.2 0.5 23.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.8 4.1 4.6 1.7 11.2 3rd
4th 0.3 2.4 2.8 0.9 0.1 6.6 4th
5th 0.1 0.8 0.8 0.1 1.8 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.1 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
Total 0.1 0.3 1.3 4.1 8.2 14.5 20.1 22.3 17.5 9.1 2.5 Total



Mid-Eastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2 100.0% 2.5    2.5
13-3 100.0% 9.1    9.0 0.1
12-4 97.4% 17.0    15.3 1.7
11-5 81.3% 18.2    11.1 6.3 0.8 0.0
10-6 42.6% 8.6    2.7 4.2 1.4 0.2
9-7 11.1% 1.6    0.1 0.7 0.5 0.3
8-8 0.6% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
Total 57.0% 57.0 40.8 13.0 2.8 0.5 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2 2.5% 48.7% 48.7% 14.6 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.1 1.3
13-3 9.1% 34.2% 34.2% 15.5 0.1 1.4 1.6 6.0
12-4 17.5% 32.4% 32.4% 15.8 0.0 1.0 4.7 11.8
11-5 22.3% 24.7% 24.7% 15.9 0.3 5.2 16.8
10-6 20.1% 18.5% 18.5% 16.0 0.0 3.7 16.4
9-7 14.5% 15.0% 15.0% 16.0 2.2 12.3
8-8 8.2% 9.4% 9.4% 16.0 0.8 7.5
7-9 4.1% 11.4% 11.4% 16.0 0.5 3.6
6-10 1.3% 5.8% 5.8% 16.0 0.1 1.2
5-11 0.3% 7.7% 7.7% 16.0 0.0 0.3
4-12 0.1% 0.1
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 22.7% 22.7% 0.0% 15.8 0.1 0.5 3.4 18.8 77.3 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.2% 100.0% 14.6 5.0 33.9 57.0 4.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.5%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.6%