North Alabama
Atlantic Sun
2019-20 - 2020-21 - 2021-22
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Overall
Predictive Rating-6.9#273
Expected Predictive Rating-7.9#278
Pace75.0#55
Improvement+2.9#37

Offense
Total Offense-6.3#317
First Shot-6.1#309
After Offensive Rebound-0.2#183
Layup/Dunks-1.2#223
2 Pt Jumpshots-4.5#338
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.5#188
Freethrows+0.1#171
Improvement+0.3#141

Defense
Total Defense-0.6#181
First Shot-1.7#225
After Offensive Rebounds+1.1#106
Layups/Dunks+0.9#153
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.4#82
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.2#293
Freethrows-0.9#238
Improvement+2.6#25
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.7% 0.8% 0.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.8 15.8 15.9
.500 or above 39.0% 49.8% 19.4%
.500 or above in Conference 39.9% 51.1% 19.8%
Conference Champion 5.8% 8.2% 1.5%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.5% 0.6% 0.4%
First Round0.5% 0.6% 0.3%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Jacksonville (Home) - 64.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 10 - 2
Quad 31 - 21 - 4
Quad 46 - 57 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Dec 10, 2020 292   Troy L 57-62 60%     0 - 1 -14.6 -12.2 -2.9
  Dec 13, 2020 31   @ Indiana L 52-87 4%     0 - 2 -20.9 -20.9 +5.1
  Jan 08, 2021 240   Stetson L 77-86 48%     0 - 3 0 - 1 -15.5 -3.4 -11.6
  Jan 09, 2021 240   Stetson W 73-66 OT 48%     1 - 3 1 - 1 +0.5 -14.6 +14.0
  Jan 15, 2021 341   @ Kennesaw St. W 66-43 72%     2 - 3 2 - 1 +10.0 -6.1 +17.2
  Jan 16, 2021 341   @ Kennesaw St. W 66-64 72%     3 - 3 3 - 1 -11.0 -16.2 +4.9
  Jan 22, 2021 291   Jacksonville W 69-66 64%    
  Jan 23, 2021 291   Jacksonville W 69-66 64%    
  Jan 29, 2021 261   @ North Florida L 73-76 36%    
  Jan 30, 2021 261   @ North Florida L 73-76 36%    
  Feb 12, 2021 121   Liberty L 61-70 25%    
  Feb 13, 2021 121   Liberty L 61-70 25%    
  Feb 18, 2021 229   @ Bellarmine L 64-68 31%    
  Feb 20, 2021 229   @ Bellarmine L 64-68 31%    
  Feb 26, 2021 208   Lipscomb L 70-72 47%    
  Feb 27, 2021 208   Lipscomb L 70-72 48%    
Projected Record 7 - 9 7 - 7





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.3 2.1 2.3 0.9 0.2 5.8 1st
2nd 0.4 3.2 3.2 0.5 0.0 7.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 4.6 6.0 1.1 0.0 12.2 3rd
4th 0.5 5.6 9.3 2.5 0.0 17.9 4th
5th 0.4 5.1 10.5 2.9 0.1 18.9 5th
6th 0.1 3.4 9.0 3.4 0.1 16.0 6th
7th 0.4 3.2 7.6 4.1 0.2 15.5 7th
8th 1.2 3.2 1.8 0.2 6.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.1 9th
10th 10th
Total 1.6 6.5 13.2 18.8 20.0 17.4 12.1 6.5 2.8 1.0 0.2 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3 100.0% 0.2    0.2
12-4 99.5% 0.9    0.9 0.1
11-5 81.8% 2.3    1.2 0.9 0.2 0.0
10-6 32.6% 2.1    0.3 0.8 0.8 0.2 0.0
9-7 2.5% 0.3    0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
8-8 0.0%
Total 5.8% 5.8 2.5 1.9 1.1 0.3 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3 0.2% 0.2
12-4 1.0% 1.0
11-5 2.8% 2.1% 2.1% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.7
10-6 6.5% 2.2% 2.2% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 6.3
9-7 12.1% 1.1% 1.1% 15.9 0.0 0.1 12.0
8-8 17.4% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.1 17.3
7-9 20.0% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.2 19.8
6-10 18.8% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.1 18.8
5-11 13.2% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 13.2
4-12 6.5% 6.5
3-13 1.6% 1.6
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 0.7% 0.7% 0.0% 15.8 0.0 0.1 0.6 99.3 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2%
Lose Out 1.6%