North Carolina St.
Atlantic Coast
2019-20 - 2020-21 - 2021-22
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Overall
Predictive Rating+8.2#68
Expected Predictive Rating+6.3#88
Pace71.7#130
Improvement-5.9#345

Offense
Total Offense+5.6#56
First Shot+5.5#45
After Offensive Rebound+0.1#168
Layup/Dunks+4.0#47
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#123
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.5#120
Freethrows-0.8#230
Improvement-2.4#317

Defense
Total Defense+2.6#106
First Shot+2.2#100
After Offensive Rebounds+0.4#154
Layups/Dunks-3.8#289
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.7#125
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.1#45
Freethrows+1.2#108
Improvement-3.5#335
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.2% 0.5% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.7% 1.9% 0.3%
NCAA Tourney Bid 11.8% 23.1% 7.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 10.5% 21.1% 6.8%
Average Seed 9.9 9.5 10.3
.500 or above 59.0% 78.9% 51.9%
.500 or above in Conference 16.9% 32.4% 11.3%
Conference Champion 0.2% 0.8% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 5.6% 1.8% 7.0%
First Four3.0% 4.7% 2.4%
First Round10.2% 20.6% 6.5%
Second Round4.6% 9.7% 2.8%
Sweet Sixteen1.4% 2.7% 0.9%
Elite Eight0.5% 1.0% 0.3%
Final Four0.1% 0.3% 0.1%
Championship Game0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: North Carolina (Away) - 26.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b1 - 32 - 7
Quad 24 - 36 - 10
Quad 33 - 18 - 11
Quad 44 - 012 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 25, 2020 335   Charleston Southern W 95-61 98%     1 - 0 +18.6 +5.5 +9.0
  Nov 27, 2020 260   North Florida W 86-51 93%     2 - 0 +27.1 +16.2 +15.2
  Dec 03, 2020 242   Umass Lowell W 90-59 89%     3 - 0 +25.9 +11.9 +13.2
  Dec 17, 2020 32   @ Saint Louis L 69-80 29%     3 - 1 +3.0 -5.0 +9.2
  Dec 19, 2020 274   Campbell W 69-50 93%     4 - 1 +10.2 -10.4 +20.2
  Dec 22, 2020 35   North Carolina W 79-76 42%     5 - 1 1 - 0 +13.2 +5.2 +7.7
  Dec 30, 2020 107   Boston College W 79-76 70%     6 - 1 2 - 0 +5.7 +5.8 -0.2
  Jan 05, 2021 55   @ Clemson L 70-74 OT 35%     6 - 2 2 - 1 +8.1 +2.3 +6.0
  Jan 09, 2021 93   Miami (FL) L 59-64 66%     6 - 3 2 - 2 -1.0 -4.6 +3.0
  Jan 13, 2021 14   @ Florida St. L 73-105 19%     6 - 4 2 - 3 -14.6 +7.9 -23.2
  Jan 23, 2021 35   @ North Carolina L 71-77 26%    
  Jan 26, 2021 103   Wake Forest W 78-73 73%    
  Jan 31, 2021 44   @ Syracuse L 73-78 29%    
  Feb 02, 2021 8   Virginia L 60-67 28%    
  Feb 06, 2021 107   @ Boston College W 78-76 53%    
  Feb 09, 2021 44   Syracuse L 75-76 51%    
  Feb 13, 2021 53   Duke L 76-77 53%    
  Feb 17, 2021 59   @ Pittsburgh L 72-75 33%    
  Feb 20, 2021 103   @ Wake Forest W 77-75 52%    
  Feb 28, 2021 59   Pittsburgh W 74-73 55%    
  Mar 03, 2021 82   @ Notre Dame L 76-77 44%    
  Mar 05, 2021 41   Virginia Tech L 70-71 50%    
Projected Record 11 - 11 7 - 10





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.3 0.0 1.1 2nd
3rd 0.2 1.2 0.9 0.1 2.4 3rd
4th 0.1 1.3 2.1 0.4 0.0 3.7 4th
5th 0.0 0.7 3.1 1.3 0.1 5.1 5th
6th 0.2 2.9 3.2 0.3 0.0 6.5 6th
7th 0.0 1.4 5.3 1.4 0.0 8.1 7th
8th 0.4 5.0 4.1 0.2 0.0 9.7 8th
9th 0.1 2.9 6.9 1.2 0.0 11.1 9th
10th 0.0 1.5 7.0 3.7 0.1 12.3 10th
11th 0.0 0.7 5.4 5.7 0.7 12.5 11th
12th 0.0 0.3 3.5 6.2 1.7 0.0 11.7 12th
13th 0.1 1.8 4.6 1.9 0.1 8.4 13th
14th 0.0 0.7 2.5 1.5 0.2 0.0 4.9 14th
15th 0.3 1.0 0.7 0.1 0.0 2.2 15th
Total 0.3 1.8 5.3 10.3 15.3 17.9 17.9 14.3 9.3 4.9 2.0 0.6 0.1 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 68.6% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 21.1% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 4.0% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.2% 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 0.1% 100.0% 17.1% 82.9% 4.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
13-7 0.6% 98.9% 10.7% 88.2% 6.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 98.8%
12-8 2.0% 91.2% 10.4% 80.8% 8.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.2 90.2%
11-9 4.9% 70.0% 6.1% 64.0% 9.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.3 0.0 1.5 68.1%
10-10 9.3% 37.5% 2.7% 34.8% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 1.2 0.9 0.1 5.8 35.8%
9-11 14.3% 12.4% 2.0% 10.5% 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.7 0.2 0.0 12.5 10.7%
8-12 17.9% 2.7% 1.2% 1.5% 11.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 17.4 1.5%
7-13 17.9% 0.6% 0.5% 0.1% 12.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 17.7 0.1%
6-14 15.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 12.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 15.2 0.0%
5-15 10.3% 0.1% 0.1% 14.7 0.0 0.0 10.3
4-16 5.3% 5.3
3-17 1.8% 1.8
2-18 0.3% 0.3
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 11.8% 1.5% 10.4% 9.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 1.2 1.6 2.1 2.9 2.2 0.4 0.0 0.0 88.2 10.5%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.3%