North Carolina
Atlantic Coast
2019-20 - 2020-21 - 2021-22
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Overall
Predictive Rating+12.1#32
Expected Predictive Rating+12.6#42
Pace73.5#82
Improvement-2.5#303

Offense
Total Offense+5.4#59
First Shot-1.5#209
After Offensive Rebound+6.9#1
Layup/Dunks+2.6#79
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.5#92
3 Pt Jumpshots-8.5#341
Freethrows+2.8#29
Improvement-0.1#178

Defense
Total Defense+6.8#25
First Shot+7.8#6
After Offensive Rebounds-1.0#245
Layups/Dunks+4.3#45
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#153
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.5#201
Freethrows+3.6#10
Improvement-2.3#304
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.3% 0.3% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.9% 0.9% 0.4%
Top 4 Seed 4.8% 5.4% 1.4%
Top 6 Seed 12.1% 13.5% 4.4%
NCAA Tourney Bid 62.2% 65.1% 46.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 59.1% 62.0% 43.9%
Average Seed 8.6 8.5 9.5
.500 or above 88.5% 90.6% 77.2%
.500 or above in Conference 67.9% 71.7% 47.7%
Conference Champion 6.1% 6.9% 1.9%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.6%
First Four8.5% 8.2% 10.0%
First Round58.0% 61.1% 41.7%
Second Round32.6% 35.0% 19.4%
Sweet Sixteen12.4% 13.4% 7.0%
Elite Eight5.0% 5.3% 3.5%
Final Four2.2% 2.3% 1.6%
Championship Game0.5% 0.5% 0.2%
National Champion0.2% 0.1% 0.2%

Next Game: Wake Forest (Home) - 84.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 10 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 41 - 4
Quad 1b2 - 32 - 8
Quad 26 - 39 - 11
Quad 35 - 114 - 11
Quad 43 - 016 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 25, 2020 200   College of Charleston W 79-60 93%     1 - 0 +14.5 -1.0 +14.7
  Nov 30, 2020 117   UNLV W 78-51 79%     2 - 0 +30.7 +3.7 +26.2
  Dec 01, 2020 52   Stanford W 67-63 57%     3 - 0 +14.4 +0.5 +13.8
  Dec 02, 2020 10   Texas L 67-69 33%     3 - 1 +14.8 +3.9 +10.8
  Dec 08, 2020 3   @ Iowa L 80-93 18%     3 - 2 +8.8 +3.2 +7.0
  Dec 12, 2020 230   NC Central W 73-67 95%     4 - 2 -0.2 -4.2 +3.8
  Dec 19, 2020 57   Kentucky W 75-63 59%     5 - 2 +21.7 +9.1 +12.6
  Dec 22, 2020 66   @ North Carolina St. L 76-79 58%     5 - 3 0 - 1 +7.1 +0.0 +7.4
  Dec 30, 2020 61   @ Georgia Tech L 67-72 55%     5 - 4 0 - 2 +5.8 -0.6 +6.4
  Jan 02, 2021 83   Notre Dame W 66-65 75%     6 - 4 1 - 2 +6.2 -2.1 +8.4
  Jan 05, 2021 79   @ Miami (FL) W 67-65 63%     7 - 4 2 - 2 +10.7 -6.4 +17.0
  Jan 12, 2021 55   Syracuse W 81-75 65%     8 - 4 3 - 2 +14.1 +10.1 +4.0
  Jan 16, 2021 16   @ Florida St. L 75-82 32%     8 - 5 3 - 3 +10.1 +7.8 +2.4
  Jan 19, 2021 109   Wake Forest W 79-70 84%    
  Jan 23, 2021 66   North Carolina St. W 77-72 73%    
  Jan 26, 2021 60   @ Pittsburgh W 72-71 50%    
  Feb 02, 2021 37   @ Clemson L 66-67 41%    
  Feb 06, 2021 46   @ Duke L 74-75 42%    
  Feb 08, 2021 79   Miami (FL) W 74-67 77%    
  Feb 13, 2021 6   @ Virginia L 59-66 23%    
  Feb 16, 2021 43   Virginia Tech W 70-67 64%    
  Feb 20, 2021 35   Louisville W 72-70 62%    
  Feb 23, 2021 108   @ Boston College W 78-72 67%    
  Feb 27, 2021 16   Florida St. L 75-77 49%    
  Mar 01, 2021 55   @ Syracuse W 76-75 48%    
  Mar 06, 2021 46   Duke W 76-73 65%    
Projected Record 15 - 11 10 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.3 1.9 2.5 1.3 0.1 6.1 1st
2nd 0.3 3.2 4.9 1.8 0.1 10.3 2nd
3rd 0.1 3.5 6.7 2.3 0.2 12.8 3rd
4th 0.0 1.7 7.2 4.1 0.4 13.5 4th
5th 0.7 5.5 6.1 1.0 13.4 5th
6th 0.1 3.2 7.0 1.4 0.1 11.7 6th
7th 0.0 1.0 6.6 3.2 0.2 11.1 7th
8th 0.2 2.5 3.7 0.5 0.0 6.9 8th
9th 0.0 1.4 3.7 1.3 0.1 6.5 9th
10th 0.2 1.9 1.4 0.2 3.7 10th
11th 0.0 0.8 1.3 0.2 2.3 11th
12th 0.1 0.5 0.3 1.0 12th
13th 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.7 13th
14th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 14th
15th 0.0 0.0 15th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.5 1.9 5.1 8.8 15.7 18.2 18.9 15.4 9.4 4.5 1.4 0.1 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 100.0% 0.1    0.1
15-5 90.4% 1.3    0.9 0.3 0.0
14-6 56.8% 2.5    1.2 0.9 0.4 0.0 0.0
13-7 19.9% 1.9    0.3 0.7 0.6 0.1 0.1
12-8 1.8% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 6.1% 6.1 2.6 2.0 1.2 0.2 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 0.1% 100.0% 28.6% 71.4% 2.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-5 1.4% 100.0% 24.7% 75.3% 3.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.3 100.0%
14-6 4.5% 100.0% 19.0% 81.0% 5.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
13-7 9.4% 99.0% 17.8% 81.2% 6.5 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.3 1.7 2.5 1.6 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 98.7%
12-8 15.4% 97.7% 11.1% 86.6% 8.2 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.2 2.8 3.6 3.2 2.3 0.9 0.1 0.0 0.4 97.4%
11-9 18.9% 86.3% 7.3% 79.0% 9.5 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.2 2.2 3.6 4.3 3.2 1.2 0.1 2.6 85.3%
10-10 18.2% 59.3% 5.4% 53.9% 10.7 0.0 0.4 0.7 1.3 1.6 3.1 3.0 0.6 0.1 7.4 57.0%
9-11 15.7% 27.2% 2.9% 24.2% 11.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.9 1.6 0.9 0.1 0.0 11.4 25.0%
8-12 8.8% 4.7% 1.8% 2.9% 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 8.4 3.0%
7-13 5.1% 0.8% 0.8% 13.0 0.0 5.1
6-14 1.9% 1.9
5-15 0.5% 0.5
4-16 0.0% 0.0
3-17 0.0% 0.0
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 62.2% 7.6% 54.5% 8.6 0.3 0.6 1.4 2.5 3.1 4.2 7.7 8.4 9.0 8.8 8.3 6.0 1.8 0.2 0.0 37.8 59.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 1.5 50.0 50.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.0% 100.0% 2.0 50.0 50.0
Lose Out 0.0%