North Dakota St.
Summit League
2019-20 - 2020-21 - 2021-22
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Overall
Predictive Rating+0.1#161
Expected Predictive Rating-0.2#168
Pace62.6#328
Improvement+0.6#132

Offense
Total Offense+0.0#170
First Shot-1.5#212
After Offensive Rebound+1.5#89
Layup/Dunks+1.7#111
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.8#307
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.6#233
Freethrows+1.1#109
Improvement+3.5#20

Defense
Total Defense+0.2#165
First Shot-2.1#234
After Offensive Rebounds+2.2#40
Layups/Dunks-2.4#249
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.3#269
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.0#176
Freethrows+1.6#83
Improvement-2.9#324
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 18.3% 18.9% 12.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.7 15.5 15.6
.500 or above 77.1% 79.0% 52.4%
.500 or above in Conference 99.2% 99.1% 100.0%
Conference Champion 40.8% 42.3% 22.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four7.2% 7.3% 6.3%
First Round15.6% 16.0% 10.6%
Second Round0.6% 0.6% 0.5%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Denver (Home) - 92.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 33 - 63 - 10
Quad 411 - 214 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 25, 2020 112   Nevada L 48-62 35%     0 - 1 -9.9 -22.1 +12.1
  Nov 28, 2020 122   @ Nebraska L 57-79 31%     0 - 2 -16.8 -14.9 -1.3
  Nov 29, 2020 12   @ Creighton L 58-69 6%     0 - 3 +6.7 -4.7 +10.9
  Dec 05, 2020 15   @ Kansas L 61-65 6%     0 - 4 +13.3 -0.3 +13.4
  Dec 10, 2020 98   South Dakota St. L 75-77 32%     0 - 5 0 - 1 +3.0 +1.5 +1.4
  Dec 11, 2020 174   South Dakota W 74-67 54%     1 - 5 1 - 1 +6.1 +6.5 +0.2
  Dec 12, 2020 278   North Dakota W 53-52 76%     2 - 5 2 - 1 -6.4 -13.0 +6.8
  Dec 22, 2020 102   @ TCU L 82-89 27%     2 - 6 -0.4 +7.2 -7.1
  Jan 02, 2021 317   @ Western Illinois W 68-50 80%     3 - 6 3 - 1 +9.2 -6.9 +16.8
  Jan 03, 2021 317   @ Western Illinois W 78-67 80%     4 - 6 4 - 1 +2.2 +8.8 -5.5
  Jan 08, 2021 268   Nebraska Omaha W 71-69 78%     5 - 6 5 - 1 -6.0 -4.0 -2.0
  Jan 09, 2021 268   Nebraska Omaha W 80-66 78%     6 - 6 6 - 1 +6.0 +5.9 +0.4
  Jan 15, 2021 278   @ North Dakota W 62-45 71%     7 - 6 7 - 1 +11.5 -3.6 +17.4
  Jan 16, 2021 278   @ North Dakota L 78-82 OT 71%     7 - 7 7 - 2 -9.5 -1.8 -7.4
  Jan 22, 2021 326   Denver W 70-58 90%     8 - 7 8 - 2 -2.0 +0.5 -0.6
  Jan 23, 2021 326   Denver W 77-63 93%    
  Jan 29, 2021 237   @ UMKC W 62-59 56%    
  Jan 30, 2021 237   @ UMKC W 62-59 58%    
  Feb 05, 2021 160   Oral Roberts W 74-72 60%    
  Feb 06, 2021 160   Oral Roberts W 74-72 62%    
  Feb 19, 2021 98   South Dakota St. L 70-73 43%    
  Feb 20, 2021 98   South Dakota St. L 70-73 44%    
  Feb 27, 2021 174   @ South Dakota L 67-68 43%    
  Feb 28, 2021 174   @ South Dakota L 67-68 43%    
Projected Record 13 - 11 13 - 6





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Summit League Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.6 6.7 14.0 13.7 5.0 40.0 1st
2nd 0.0 1.1 8.6 14.2 5.3 0.3 29.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.4 7.4 9.6 2.3 0.1 20.9 3rd
4th 0.1 1.0 3.4 3.7 0.4 8.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
Total 0.1 1.1 5.0 12.2 19.2 23.3 19.4 14.0 5.0 Total



Summit League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 5.0    4.9 0.1
15-1 98.0% 13.7    11.0 2.7
14-2 72.3% 14.0    7.2 6.0 0.8
13-3 28.9% 6.7    1.3 3.7 1.6 0.1
12-4 3.3% 0.6    0.2 0.4 0.1
11-5 0.0%
10-6 0.0%
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 40.0% 40.0 24.4 12.7 2.8 0.2



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 5.0% 38.6% 38.6% 14.7 0.1 0.5 1.1 0.2 3.0
15-1 14.0% 28.9% 28.9% 15.3 0.4 2.1 1.6 9.9
14-2 19.4% 20.5% 20.5% 15.6 0.1 1.3 2.5 15.4
13-3 23.3% 18.6% 18.6% 15.8 0.0 0.8 3.5 19.0
12-4 19.2% 13.8% 13.8% 16.0 0.1 2.5 16.6
11-5 12.2% 8.4% 8.4% 16.0 1.0 11.2
10-6 5.0% 4.6% 4.6% 16.0 0.2 4.7
9-7 1.1% 12.9% 12.9% 16.0 0.1 1.0
8-8 0.1% 0.1
7-9
6-10
5-11
4-12
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 18.3% 18.3% 0.0% 15.6 0.1 1.1 5.5 11.7 81.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 13.9 23.1 59.0 17.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.3%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.3%