North Florida
Atlantic Sun
2019-20 - 2020-21 - 2021-22
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Overall
Predictive Rating-6.5#268
Expected Predictive Rating-6.3#258
Pace69.6#191
Improvement+2.5#53

Offense
Total Offense-0.4#177
First Shot-0.9#201
After Offensive Rebound+0.6#141
Layup/Dunks-1.3#226
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.5#327
3 Pt Jumpshots+6.7#15
Freethrows-2.8#317
Improvement+0.6#119

Defense
Total Defense-6.1#323
First Shot-2.4#245
After Offensive Rebounds-3.8#343
Layups/Dunks-2.5#252
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.1#300
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.6#76
Freethrows-0.4#208
Improvement+1.9#53
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 5.9% 6.8% 4.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 9.5% 13.9% 2.0%
.500 or above in Conference 53.5% 67.3% 30.4%
Conference Champion 4.4% 6.4% 0.9%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four5.5% 6.2% 4.3%
First Round3.3% 3.9% 2.2%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: North Alabama (Home) - 62.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 30 - 5
Quad 30 - 21 - 8
Quad 49 - 69 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 25, 2020 151   Eastern Kentucky L 67-80 25%     0 - 1 -12.3 -9.4 -1.8
  Nov 27, 2020 72   @ North Carolina St. L 51-86 7%     0 - 2 -25.3 -12.3 -17.3
  Nov 29, 2020 93   @ Miami (FL) L 59-77 10%     0 - 3 -10.3 -14.7 +6.0
  Dec 02, 2020 11   @ Florida St. L 58-86 2%     0 - 4 -10.0 -10.1 +1.0
  Dec 05, 2020 305   @ High Point L 74-85 53%     0 - 5 -18.4 -4.8 -13.2
  Dec 07, 2020 178   Florida Atlantic L 77-79 37%     0 - 6 -5.0 +2.8 -7.8
  Dec 10, 2020 142   @ East Carolina L 67-73 18%     0 - 7 -2.8 -0.7 -2.2
  Dec 12, 2020 220   Florida International W 80-77 47%     1 - 7 -2.8 +2.7 -5.5
  Jan 08, 2021 290   @ Jacksonville L 65-66 48%     1 - 8 0 - 1 -6.9 -8.2 +1.2
  Jan 09, 2021 290   @ Jacksonville W 70-68 48%     2 - 8 1 - 1 -3.9 -0.4 -3.5
  Jan 15, 2021 222   @ Lipscomb L 72-84 34%     2 - 9 1 - 2 -14.2 +0.6 -15.7
  Jan 16, 2021 222   @ Lipscomb W 72-67 34%     3 - 9 2 - 2 +2.8 +3.5 -0.1
  Jan 22, 2021 341   Kennesaw St. W 69-54 82%     4 - 9 3 - 2 -1.4 -3.3 +2.8
  Jan 23, 2021 341   Kennesaw St. W 68-65 82%     5 - 9 4 - 2 -13.4 -10.4 -3.1
  Jan 29, 2021 275   North Alabama W 75-73 63%    
  Jan 30, 2021 275   North Alabama W 75-73 63%    
  Feb 05, 2021 121   @ Liberty L 62-74 11%    
  Feb 06, 2021 121   @ Liberty L 62-74 11%    
  Feb 12, 2021 209   Bellarmine L 69-70 49%    
  Feb 13, 2021 209   Bellarmine L 69-70 49%    
  Feb 26, 2021 251   Florida Gulf Coast W 73-72 58%    
  Feb 27, 2021 251   Florida Gulf Coast W 73-72 57%    
Projected Record 9 - 13 8 - 6





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.4 2.4 1.3 0.2 4.4 1st
2nd 0.2 4.6 4.6 0.2 9.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 5.1 9.0 1.4 15.5 3rd
4th 0.0 3.9 14.3 3.8 0.0 22.0 4th
5th 0.0 1.6 11.6 5.6 0.1 18.9 5th
6th 0.6 6.9 7.0 0.3 14.7 6th
7th 0.2 3.0 6.8 0.9 10.9 7th
8th 0.9 2.4 0.7 4.0 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
Total 1.1 6.0 16.0 23.3 25.4 17.9 8.5 1.6 0.2 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4 100.0% 0.2    0.2 0.0
11-5 86.5% 1.3    0.7 0.6 0.1
10-6 28.5% 2.4    0.2 1.2 0.8 0.2
9-7 2.1% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
8-8 0.0%
Total 4.4% 4.4 1.1 1.8 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4 0.2% 14.3% 14.3% 14.6 0.0 0.0 0.2
11-5 1.6% 18.7% 18.7% 15.8 0.0 0.2 1.3
10-6 8.5% 11.4% 11.4% 16.0 0.0 1.0 7.5
9-7 17.9% 9.9% 9.9% 16.0 1.8 16.1
8-8 25.4% 5.9% 5.9% 16.0 1.5 23.9
7-9 23.3% 3.0% 3.0% 16.0 0.7 22.6
6-10 16.0% 2.7% 2.7% 16.0 0.4 15.6
5-11 6.0% 2.5% 2.5% 16.0 0.2 5.8
4-12 1.1% 6.6% 6.6% 16.0 0.1 1.1
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 5.9% 5.9% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 0.1 5.8 94.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.8%