IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

North Texas
Conference USA
2019-20 - 2020-21 - 2021-22
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Overall
Predictive Rating	+5.8	#91
Expected Predictive Rating	+2.1	#136

Pace	62.0	#332
Improvement	+1.3	#96

Offense
Total Offense	+1.6	#134

First Shot	+4.0	#74
After Offensive Rebound	-2.5	#295

Layup/Dunks	-0.2	#178
2 Pt Jumpshots	+3.8	#27
3 Pt Jumpshots	+1.5	#117
Freethrows	-1.2	#246

Improvement	+0.6	#122

Defense
Total Defense	+4.3	#62

First Shot	+2.5	#89
After Offensive Rebounds	+1.8	#60

Layups/Dunks	+1.2	#143
2 Pt Jumpshots	+0.2	#171
3 Pt Jumpshots	+1.7	#115
Freethrows	-0.6	#217

Improvement	+0.7	#120

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.1%	0.2%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.3%	0.6%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	17.6%	20.6%	13.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.9%	1.4%	0.2%
Average Seed	12.6	12.3	13.2

.500 or above	86.0%	92.1%	77.0%
.500 or above in Conference	82.7%	90.2%	71.7%
Conference Champion	13.6%	19.0%	5.6%
Last Place in Conference	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%

First Four	0.7%	1.0%	0.2%
First Round	17.1%	20.0%	12.8%
Second Round	3.7%	4.5%	2.5%
Sweet Sixteen	0.7%	1.0%	0.4%
Elite Eight	0.2%	0.1%	0.2%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Old Dominion (Away) - 59.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 2	0 - 2
Quad 1b	0 - 2	0 - 4
Quad 2	1 - 2	1 - 6
Quad 3	7 - 3	9 - 9
Quad 4	6 - 1	15 - 10

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 26, 2020	348	Mississippi Valley	W	116-62	99.6%	1 - 0			+24.1	+9.2	+6.3
Nov 28, 2020	45	@ Arkansas	L	54-69	25%	1 - 1			-2.1	-13.1	+11.1
Dec 04, 2020	75	@ Mississippi St.	L	63-69	38%	1 - 2			+2.9	+1.1	+1.1
Dec 11, 2020	17	@ West Virginia	L	50-62	16%	1 - 3			+4.7	-9.9	+13.4
Dec 15, 2020	343	Arkansas Pine Bluff	W	81-56	98%	2 - 3			+5.8	+0.8	+5.5
Dec 17, 2020	330	Houston Baptist	W	85-55	96%	3 - 3			+15.5	+1.3	+14.0
Jan 02, 2021	28	@ Loyola Chicago	L	49-57	21%	3 - 4			+6.5	-9.8	+15.4
Jan 08, 2021	211	@ Texas San Antonio	W	77-70	76%	4 - 4	1 - 0		+5.5	+4.0	+1.8
Jan 09, 2021	211	@ Texas San Antonio	L	69-77	76%	4 - 5	1 - 1		-9.5	-5.9	-3.9
Jan 15, 2021	160	UTEP	W	63-33	76%	5 - 5	2 - 1		+28.4	-7.3	+37.6
Jan 16, 2021	160	UTEP	W	74-65	76%	6 - 5	3 - 1		+7.4	+11.0	-2.2
Jan 22, 2021	157	@ Old Dominion	W	64-60	60%
Jan 23, 2021	157	@ Old Dominion	W	64-60	60%
Jan 28, 2021	186	@ Rice	W	71-65	68%
Jan 30, 2021	186	Rice	W	73-63	85%
Feb 05, 2021	110	Louisiana Tech	W	65-62	69%
Feb 06, 2021	110	Louisiana Tech	W	65-62	66%
Feb 12, 2021	217	@ Southern Miss	W	66-58	73%
Feb 13, 2021	217	@ Southern Miss	W	66-58	71%
Feb 19, 2021	85	Western Kentucky	W	66-65	59%
Feb 20, 2021	85	Western Kentucky	W	66-65	58%
Feb 25, 2021	89	@ Marshall	L	69-71	40%
Feb 27, 2021	89	@ Marshall	L	69-71	37%
Projected Record						13 - 10	10 - 6

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Conference USA Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0		Total
1st												0.2	2.6	5.6	3.9	1.2					13.6	1st
2nd											0.2	2.6	7.4	4.1	0.7						15.0	2nd
3rd											2.1	8.3	5.2	0.6							16.1	3rd
4th										0.7	6.6	6.2	0.9								14.3	4th
5th									0.2	3.5	7.0	1.3	0.1								12.1	5th
6th								0.0	1.9	5.9	2.1	0.0									9.9	6th
7th							0.0	0.2	3.5	3.2	0.2										7.1	7th
8th							0.0	1.5	3.3	0.4	0.0										5.3	8th
9th							0.2	1.4	1.3	0.0											2.9	9th
10th						0.2	1.0	0.7	0.0												2.0	10th
11th					0.1	0.5	0.5	0.1													1.2	11th
12th					0.1	0.2	0.1														0.4	12th
13th				0.0	0.0																0.1	13th
14th																						14th

Total				0.0	0.2	0.9	1.9	3.9	10.3	13.7	18.1	18.7	16.2	10.3	4.6	1.2						Total

Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3	100.0%	1.2		1.2	0.1
14-4	85.7%	3.9		2.4	1.3	0.2
13-5	54.6%	5.6		1.9	2.9	0.6	0.1
12-6	16.2%	2.6		0.5	1.0	0.8	0.3	0.0
11-7	0.8%	0.2				0.1	0.0	0.0		0.0
10-8	0.0%
9-9	0.0%

Total	13.6%	13.6		6.0	5.3	1.6	0.5	0.1		0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3	1.2%		53.2%	37.6%	15.7%	7.7				0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1		0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.2					0.6		25.1%
14-4	4.6%		38.2%	34.0%	4.2%	11.1								0.0		0.2	0.3	0.6	0.5	0.2				2.8		6.4%
13-5	10.3%		32.4%	30.1%	2.3%	12.1											0.1	0.7	1.4	1.0	0.2			7.0		3.2%
12-6	16.2%		26.7%	26.2%	0.5%	12.8												0.1	1.5	2.1	0.5	0.1		11.9		0.7%
11-7	18.7%		16.2%	16.0%	0.2%	13.0												0.0	0.6	1.8	0.4	0.1		15.6		0.2%
10-8	18.1%		12.0%	12.0%		13.4													0.2	1.2	0.8	0.1		15.9
9-9	13.7%		9.8%	9.8%		14.1													0.0	0.2	0.8	0.3	0.0	12.4
8-10	10.3%		7.5%	7.5%		14.3														0.1	0.3	0.3		9.5
7-11	3.9%		4.9%	4.9%		15.4																0.1	0.1	3.7
6-12	1.9%		0.2%	0.2%		16.0																	0.0	1.9
5-13	0.9%																							0.9
4-14	0.2%																							0.2
3-15	0.0%																							0.0
2-16
1-17
0-18

Total	100%		17.6%	16.8%	0.7%	12.6				0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.2	0.5	1.4	4.3	6.7	2.9	1.0	0.1	82.4		0.9%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Win Out	0.5%	100.0%	6.1			8.4	16.4	25.1	25.3		0.2	8.2	16.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship	0.3%	37.6%	11.6								0.3			12.9	24.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final	0.3%	12.5%	11.9								0.3				12.2
Lose Out	0.0%